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Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.


John Lambies Doos

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1 minute ago, LongTimeLurker said:

It's the petition of concern mechanism I am referring to. If they have 30 MLAs in 2024, they can block any change to the backstop with a majority of self-designated Unionist votes.

There's been chat of the petition of concern being amended/dropped should Stormont restart, most of the parties seemed happy enough about it, but maybe the DUP will change their mind because of this deal.

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3 minutes ago, GTG_03 said:

Why can't the SNP make an agreement with Johnson? SNP MP'S will vote for the deal in exchange for the power to hold referendums to be passed to Holyrood.  

Why would they? Boris has no power to offer anything and even if he did, it might not be in his interests to honour that (which has not been an issue in his past).

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51 minutes ago, harry94 said:

Yeah, I'd be astonished otherwise. Think they are just playing madman to try and push parliament to do something - maybe political cover for Boris to try and spin his way into a second referendum.

This is a pain for the EU but not getting an agreement doesn't end the political uncertainty by a longshot and then it leads to an economic hit.

The other side of that is that if the deal is rejected and an extension is refused then the deal would definitely be passed at a second attempt.

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15 minutes ago, GTG_03 said:

Why can't the SNP make an agreement with Johnson? SNP MP'S will vote for the deal in exchange for the power to hold referendums to be passed to Holyrood.  

Because it would go something like this....

SNP: Give us another referendum and we'll back your deal

Boris: But I don't want anybody to back my deal

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22 minutes ago, GTG_03 said:

Why can't the SNP make an agreement with Johnson? SNP MP'S will vote for the deal in exchange for the power to hold referendums to be passed to Holyrood.  

Because they'd lose any referendum that had been secured by such an agreement. If the SNP are seen to be acting tactically, cynically and with their own political interests rather than that of the nation with respect to a Brexit deal that by the SNP's own communications would make a lot of people worse off, then they'll only alienate a large tranche of voters they'd require to win IndyRef 2.

The SNP have no choice but to play this with a straight bat, no matter what machinations the Stuart Campbells of this world imagine there is.

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4 minutes ago, Cerberus said:

Keir says no-
 

The deal is about the Withdrawal Agreement, if Labour won a election they could rip up the Political Declaration and negotiate a relationship with the EU on their own terms, it's not legally binding. I know Starmer impresses a lot of people but he looks and sounds like a trainspotter or a jobsworth ticket inspector.

 

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Just now, welshbairn said:

The deal is about the Withdrawal Agreement, if Labour won a election they could rip up the Political Declaration and negotiate a relationship with the EU on their own terms, it's not legally binding. I know Starmer impresses a lot of people but he looks and sounds like a trainspotter or a jobsworth ticket inspector.

 

I think the point is though that whilst not technically legally binding, there are implications for that. It does massively f**k up the next part of trade negotiations (which remember, can be vetoed by a single state - the wa is just a majority ballot) if the EU are then being asked for a radically different arrangement against the spirit of what they agreed to, it does create practical issues if it alters the road that we go down.

I don't mind Starmer tbh, I think he's very good at knowing what to say at the right time and when not to say anything which is something a lot of that party seem to find immensely difficult.

He reminds me of this guy too

 

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23 minutes ago, Cerberus said:

Keir says no-
 

Well argued and consistent.  The lack of commitment to retaining workers’, consumers’ and environmental protection in the proposed deal makes it harder for the Kinnock camp to give their support.

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23 minutes ago, harry94 said:

It does massively f**k up the next part of trade negotiations (which remember, can be vetoed by a single state - the wa is just a majority ballot) if the EU are then being asked for a radically different arrangement against the spirit of what they agreed to, it does create practical issues if it alters the road that we go down.

The EU would far rather have regulatory alignment and a customs union than Johnson's race to the bottom. I thought the WA requires unanimity from the EU leaders too? 

P.S. No, you're right about a qualified majority being sufficient, it's an extension to A50 that requires unanimity.

Edited by welshbairn
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Because they'd lose any referendum that had been secured by such an agreement. If the SNP are seen to be acting tactically, cynically and with their own political interests rather than that of the nation with respect to a Brexit deal that by the SNP's own communications would make a lot of people worse off, then they'll only alienate a large tranche of voters they'd require to win IndyRef 2.
The SNP have no choice but to play this with a straight bat, no matter what machinations the Stuart Campbells of this world imagine there is.
Absolutely. The SNP can't be seen to be playing politics.

In the same vein, is the Labour party making a huge mistake by voting it down (if that's what happens)? It looks like they were never going to accept any deal that any tory pm got and that might affect them at the ballot box.
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4 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

Absolutely. The SNP can't be seen to be playing politics.

In the same vein, is the Labour party making a huge mistake by voting it down (if that's what happens)? It looks like they were never going to accept any deal that any tory pm got and that might affect them at the ballot box.

The 6 conditions made that clear. If someone manages to get an amendment on Saturday that means if the deal is passed it has to go to a confirmatory referendum with a Remain option, it will be hard for Corbyn to get MPs to tow the party line. Not sure if that would get a majority though, with most Tories voting against. 

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57 minutes ago, Cerberus said:

Keir says no-
 

Well argued and consistent.  The lack of commitment to retaining workers’, consumers’ and environmental protection in the proposed deal makes it harder for the Kinnock camp to give their support.

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Worries that the Government might try to use abortion rights to get the DUP to capitulate.

I don’t think it will work but I wouldn’t put it past them.  Absolute scum.

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/dup-brexit-negotiations-abortion_uk_5da829b2e4b0b5c9be495c2a?utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage&ncid=other_homepage_tiwdkz83gze&utm_campaign=mw_entry_recirc

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