SweeperDee Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 So there can be a conference recess I expect.Yeah, I don’t think the Tories are going to get their conference. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 2 hours ago, DigOutYourSoul said: What are the realistic options going forward? Queens Speech due on the 14th so Parliament should be porogued correctly for a few days before hand, so the house should rise around the 7th. That would give it 10 business days to hold the government to account. The Tories are angling for a brief recess for conference. If the former Conservatives vote with the government they could get 3 days next week in recess. The government could aim for a bill to bring forward an election, this has been defeated twice. There is some sticky constitutional law about how many votes it would need for that, but it is very unlikely that they have even a majority. Also the clock is near enough run down so that an election would have to happen after 31 October and all that that implies, either the mess of a no deal or with Boris having failed to deliver a new deal that could be passed thus the Benn Act being in force. A vote of no confidence is also a likelihood. This would bring down the ministry of Mr Johnson and either a new temporary government would take his place and sit as caretakers for a short period or a new election would be scheduled (I cannot remember exactly when after a vote of no confidence an election is held). Outwith the leader of one main party, most commentators see holding back on an election till after October 31 as the best move for those who wish to remain or who wish to leave with a deal. There is a narrow amount of time to either accept the May deal (which was close run) or come up with a deal closer to the EU such as Norway or something that could perhaps get passed both the EU and Parliament in a couple of months. Couple of caveats, all the polls showing the Tories taking a huge hit if they do not deliver Brexit on the 31st of October have an inherent flaw. It how people imagine they will react, most of the time, when people get in the polling booth, they tend to dump protest parties for more mainstream ones, especially if the alternative is between a Tory government trying to deliver Brexit and a Lib\Lab\SNP coalition that will be trying to deliver a second referendum. So I really do not expect the Tories polling to be as catastrophic post 31/10/19 as many predict. You would also expect Labour to pick up votes off the Greens for similar reasons. If the UK is in too much of a mess the EU might just pull the plug and leave us to either pick Mays deal or bomb out. But the possibility of a remain coalition in a post 31/10 election could be enough to sway them to give us two more months. There are many who will disagree and be keen to point to flaws in what I say, your mileage may vary. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, UsedToGoToCentralPark said: 18 minutes ago, SweeperDee said: 3 line whip for the Tories tomorrow. Wonder what for? So there can be a conference recess I expect. f**k them, the SNP don't get a recess for their conference. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SweeperDee Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Corbyn will be calling for a VoNC, with Lib Dem’s apparently backing it, along with the SNP and other smaller parties besides the usual suspects. The important thing here is that the backing for the VoNC will still be there even if a unity government isn’t guaranteed. This is all rumours and murmurs of course. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 2 hours ago, welshbairn said: If I was him I'd take a slow cruise liner. The Titanic has sailed... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, SweeperDee said: Corbyn will be calling for a VoNC, with Lib Dem’s apparently backing it, along with the SNP and other smaller parties besides the usual suspects. The important thing here is that the backing for the VoNC will still be there even if a unity government isn’t guaranteed. This is all rumours and murmurs of course. Without the rebel Tories they do not have the numbers. The rebel Tories will fear hard Brexit Tories taking the seats of more moderates and the possibility of a Tory\Brexit Party team up having enough numbers to take the Commons so their support for it will be contingent on a series of political calculations. The only way for it to succeed without them is the DUP voting for it, Sinn Feinn turning up and voting for it or abstentions by Tories\recent ex Tories and finally for pro Brexit Tories voting for it on the assumption they can stymie a remain coalition. Edited September 24, 2019 by dorlomin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 They have to call the confidence vote anyway. It's ridiculous to shout about the PM resigning and then not do it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The OP Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Romeo Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Number 10 saying Boris will not be resigning. Hopefully this could mean a VONC and a government of National Unity. A Corbyn Govt is the last thing the country needs at this moment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Mark Connolly said: I'm surprised tbh. They usually go all out to plan for every eventuality, don't they? Like they did for a "Leave" vote? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Romeo said: Shouldn't Boris be having his door smashed in at 6am by plod? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 16 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: A Corbyn Govt is the last thing the country needs at this moment. A Corbyn government is the only option. The tail doesn't wag the dog. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kneal Down Caster Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Shouldn't Boris be having his door smashed in at 6am by plod?George Michael’s passed away mate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 hour ago, UsedToGoToCentralPark said: Not exactly detailed investigations from me but does provide useful information Nice of Julia Hartley-Brewer to take some time out from calling a 16 year old lassie a c**t to share her views here. A fucking horrible human being. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 12 minutes ago, Detournement said: A Corbyn government is the only option. The tail doesn't wag the dog. Well that would please the Don't Knows and Not Sures. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Poor Boris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyderspaceman Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 14 minutes ago, The Moonster said: Nice of Julia Hartley-Brewer to take some time out from calling a 16 year old lassie a c**t to share her views here. A fucking horrible human being. Had to Google her. Seems a bit of a cuuuunt herself. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, doulikefish said: Poor Boris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Kincardine Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 2 hours ago, sergie's no1 fan said: Is this the democracy the Yoonatics have been going on about since 2014? It's the democracy the Unionists have been going on about since the Williamite Revolution... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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