beefybake Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 4 hours ago, jamieson87 said: It's not just no deal supporters, or hard brexiteers that'll be voting for the Brexit party. My guess is that a percentage of the votes will come from floating voters who feel disillusioned with the traditional parties. This is how Farage is pitching it, and I think it'll win him a few votes. At root, the base for the Farage party is what was the old UKIP. The best electoral support for that was, as I recall ( possibly incorrectly ) around 15 %. Given that some of that will stay with the new UKIP....., add in that an amount of those who voted Brexit in the referendum can now see what an unmitigated disaster it all is... even after you factor in the previously Tory-voting Brexiters who will turn up their noses at what UKIP has now become, so will vote forthe Farage party......... I'd say that the real vote for the Farage party will be around the 20% 'ish mark. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 Don't pretend to understand the voting system, but it's a bit worrying that the Brexity loons have 2 or maybe 3 parties to concentrate their votes on, and Remainy ones have about 5. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glasgow-sheep Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 At root, the base for the Farage party is what was the old UKIP. The best electoral support for that was, as I recall ( possibly incorrectly ) around 15 %. Given that some of that will stay with the new UKIP....., add in that an amount of those who voted Brexit in the referendum can now see what an unmitigated disaster it all is... even after you factor in the previously Tory-voting Brexiters who will turn up their noses at what UKIP has now become, so will vote forthe Farage party......... I'd say that the real vote for the Farage party will be around the 20% 'ish mark.Last EU elections 2014UKIP 26.6%Labour 24.4%Tories 23.1%Green 6.9%Lib Dems 6.6%ScotlandSNP 29.0%Labour 25.9%Tories 17.2%UKIP 10.5%Green 8.1%Lib Dems 7.1% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 45 minutes ago, glasgow-sheep said: Last EU elections 2014 UKIP 26.6% Labour 24.4% Tories 23.1% Green 6.9% Lib Dems 6.6% Scotland SNP 29.0% Labour 25.9% Tories 17.2% UKIP 10.5% Green 8.1% Lib Dems 7.1% The Greens have got to fancy their chances here 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crùbag Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 3 hours ago, Granny Danger said: The polls are ignoring the Scottish situation where I reckon the SNP, an unashamed Remain Party, will do well. This will justify and reinforce the SNP position. Latest subsample for us North Brits is SNP on 49%. I reckon they'll clean up with the Greens seeing a wee boost too. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crùbag Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 Oh.... see that Galloway is bed with Farage again! What en effin balloon.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lichtgilphead Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said: The Greens have got to fancy their chances here Why? It's done by D'Hondt, remember. Whilst it's more proportional than First Past the Post, it can still reward a party on 30% of the votes with 50% of the seats Look at the factors in the Scottish constituency: 1) Only 6 seats up for grabs. 2) SNP are as good as certain to take at least 2 seats 3) Labour are as good as certain to take at least 1 seat 4) Tories are likely to be punished by hard brexiteers voting for Farage's party That leaves 3 seats still to be allocated. Accordingly, Greens would need to finish 3rd or better out of the following figures (SNP total vote divided by 3), (Labour total vote divided by 2), (Conservative Vote) (Brexit Party Vote) (Lib Dem Vote) (Green Vote) For example, if the election finished: SNP 32%, Lab 21%, Conservative 11% Brexit 10% Green 9% + others all under 9% Seat 1 SNP (32%) Seat 2 Lab (21%) Seat 3 SNP (16%) Seat 4 Con (11%) Seat 5 SNP (10.67%) Seat 6 Lab (10.5%) The Greens would notionally win the eighth seat, but that's not much good when there are only 6 up for grabs. Tactical voting under D'Hondt is for mugs. I'll stick with my preferred independence-supporting party (SNP) as I think that they are likely to poll more than 3 times the Green party vote. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lichtgilphead Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 40 minutes ago, Crùbag said: Latest subsample for us North Brits is SNP on 49%. I reckon they'll clean up with the Greens seeing a wee boost too. On these figures (SNP 49% Labour 16% Tories 12% Brexit Party 8% Green 6% Lib Dems 3% UKIP 3% Change UK 1%) Seat 1 SNP (49%) Seat 2 SNP (24.5%) Seat 3 SNP (16.33%) Seat 4 Lab (16%) Seat 5 SNP (12.25%) Seat 6 Con (12%) Unlikely, I know, but proves my point above about the Green's difficulty in winning a seat. The SNP would win 7 seats before the Greens won any on those figures! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Crùbag said: Oh.... see that Galloway is bed with Farage again! What en effin balloon.... Can only assume his application to rejoin the Labour Party has been rejected again. Wee shame. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 10 hours ago, Crùbag said: Oh.... see that Galloway is bed with Farage again! What en effin balloon.... Bit of a turnaround from 2014. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Bit of a turnaround from 2014. Georgey boy is thinking gravy train and he wants to get onboard 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 The European Parliament doesn't have much influence or power and is unlikely to ever move from it's current pro business ideology. They will still be discussing potential methods to try and get corporations to pay tax in the 22nd century. This election is fairly pointless beyond setting out a marker for future a future GE. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 (edited) It won't happen but pro Europeans should unite under one banner for the Euro Election, like they've done in Poland. Treat it like the single issue vote that it is, and what the Brexit Party is taking a huge advantage from. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/20/poland-opposition-europe-macron-eu https://www.ft.com/content/17c356d2-6128-11e9-a27a-fdd51850994c?emailId=5cb824e48b95a100044f95ff&segmentId=2f40f9e8-c8d5-af4c-ecdd-78ad0b93926b Edited April 18, 2019 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Any pro-European in Scotland should vote for the SNP.That's the message that should be loud and clear.Only one party has been consistently anti hard Brexit.And Labour need exposed for the fucking fence sitters that they are. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highland Capital Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 I’m sure when Galloway had his show on TalkSport he was a big Europhile. I’m sure he used to say how he’d like to see a United States of Europe and was really big on freedom of movement. I may have just dreamt all this though! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbitterandgrumpy Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Parliament's having an Easter break. I'm actually enjoying the brief absence of saturation Brexit coverage. The airwaves seem . . . I don't know . . . cleaner. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inanimate Carbon Rod Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 I’m sure when Galloway had his show on TalkSport he was a big Europhile. I’m sure he used to say how he’d like to see a United States of Europe and was really big on freedom of movement. I may have just dreamt all this though!No ive heard him say this too. Hes just a lunatic opportunist. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said: No ive heard him say this too. Hes just an irrelevant c**t. FTFTY. He supports an independent united Ireland but opposes independence for Scotland. Says it all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crùbag Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 19 hours ago, NotThePars said: Can only assume his application to rejoin the Labour Party has been rejected again. Wee shame. From Radical Corbyn to Nigel Falange... At least Derek Hatton didn't rebound into Farage. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crùbag Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 2 hours ago, Highland Capital said: I’m sure when Galloway had his show on TalkSport he was a big Europhile. I’m sure he used to say how he’d like to see a United States of Europe and was really big on freedom of movement. I may have just dreamt all this though! He was. He was very pro-EU during Indyref. Then again, I don't think he really has principle other than to advance his own publicity and bank account. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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