Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Colkitto]

2 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

EU, General elections on the same day as brexit and indyref referendums for the banter.

We like that...

[Colkitto]

2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

It’s a question of alternatives.

Parliament won’t vote for a Hard Brexit.

DUP and some ERG will stymie May’s deal.

A GE is worse than a referendum for the Tories.

I can see enough Tories swinging behind a referendum as a way of moving this forward, it’s already a trickle but will grow.

Remember it just failed by a few votes last time around with those on the government payroll abstaining on all the options.

As for May ruling it out, she’s not in control now.  The MPs have taken over once they can do so again.

 

We are in the realms of anything can happen so can't rule EU Ref out I suppose.

Hard Brexit is the default on the 31st October regardless of how parliament voted.

Can't see May's deal on it's own getting through, but await the outcome of the talks with Labour.

Wonder if they will require SNP votes for an EU Ref to be agreed?  And also wonder what the SNP will insist on if they do?  

[Granny Danger]

2 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

We are in the realms of anything can happen so can't rule EU Ref out I suppose.

Hard Brexit is the default on the 31st October regardless of how parliament voted.

Can't see May's deal on it's own getting through, but await the outcome of the talks with Labour.

Wonder if they will require SNP votes for an EU Ref to be agreed?  And also wonder what the SNP will insist on if they do?  

I think the SNP position has softened; they had originally linked any support to an assurance for Scotland’s position with the EU but have subsequently backtracked.

I think they realise that it would not be in their interest to be seen to be playing politics with Brexit.

As it is they are one of the few parties to have emerged with credibility even if it’s rarely recognised by the MSM.

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I reckon a Referendum, even if it’s a confirmatory one, is by far the most likely outcome now.
 

If a confirmatory referendum is a No what then?

[harry94]

3 wanted a short extension - not stated anywhere what that meant - but did say they were open to a longer flextension.

Macron wanted 1 June.

The rest want 31 March 2020.

It looks like Macron won.

Personally I think it's the worst possible result for a soft Brexit/revocation.

Too short a time for a referendum.

Enough time for the Tory hardliners to take charge.

The referendum thing is a moot point.

If that's what parliament wants, it'd be an instant approval from Brussels to agree to an extension as it's for a tangible purpose. Same thing if it was for any specific implementation process.

It's plenty of time to get the ball moving on one if parliament agrees.

It'll be completely wasted but I think the six months is also good time for parliament to work on a proper customs union plan and even allow the Tories to possibly maintain their own party if they can get some sort of guarantee legislated on cross party that there will be a long-term approach to pivot away from this (something along the lines of a new department to work on setting up trade deals in principle etc to allow future withdrawal). I suspect no one has the skill to do that though.

[harry94]

If a confirmatory referendum is a No what then?

It would mean May's agreement is implemented.

No way that parliament would legislate on another leave vote that isn't directly linked to something.

[ICTJohnboy]

Ah well....

So this thread now set to continue until October 31st.

That's appropriate given that the Tories and Labour are nothing more than a bunch of guisers.

[Jacksgranda]

According to Leo Varadkar there are only 3 options - 1/ May's deal

2/ No deal

3/ Revoke Artcicle 50 (Remain)

[MONKMAN]

The absolute state of leave voters interviewed on the BBC news, today’s batch of creatures from Dagenham.

[Granny Danger]

2 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

According to Leo Varadkar there are only 3 options - 1/ May's deal

2/ No deal

3/ Revoke Artcicle 50 (Remain)

That seems reasonable; I’d be wary of how a confirmatory vote would be structured and worded if these were the three options.

 

[MEADOWXI]

May cannot see out May

With local elections in England on 2nd May and Euro elections on 23rd May it will be too much to hold that rabble together.

Both elections will be fought on BREXIT (even though the first should be about local services and spending, and the second not happening). They can only tear themselves apart, how can they write a Euro Manifesto they can agree on when they clearly don't come close to agreeing. Could it see a Remainer Tory MEP candidate in one area and an ERG Brexiteer Tory MEP candidate in another?  There can surely only be a major split in the Tory party if not a total collapse.

As for the rudderless ship that is Labour can't see them being much better at nailing their colours to a mast.

Can only see the extremes of UKIP and the new Brexit Party (Farage and Coburn) doing well due to low turnouts, disillusion, the general let's kick the useless fuckers that are in charge attitude of those that will turn out seeing worst ever results for the Tories and possibly Labour.

I intend to start drinking heavily and continue this throughout May as a coping mechanism.

Next month will become known as The Omnishambles of May

[ICTJohnboy]

3 minutes ago, MEADOWXI said:

May cannot see out May

With local elections in England on 2nd May and Euro elections on 23rd May it will be too much to hold that rabble together.

Both elections will be fought on BREXIT (even though the first should be about local services and spending, and the second not happening). They can only tear themselves apart, how can they write a Euro Manifesto they can agree on when they clearly don't come close to agreeing. Could it see a Remainer Tory MEP candidate in one area and an ERG Brexiteer Tory MEP candidate in another?  There can surely only be a major split in the Tory party if not a total collapse.

As for the rudderless ship that is Labour can't see them being much better at nailing their colours to a mast.

Can only see the extremes of UKIP and the new Brexit Party (Farage and Coburn) doing well due to low turnouts, disillusion, the general let's kick the useless fuckers that are in charge attitude of those that will turn out seeing worst ever results for the Tories and possibly Labour.

I intend to start drinking heavily and continue this throughout May as a coping mechanism.

Next month will become known as The Omnishambles of May

 

That's a good excuse. Must remember that one!

[Granny Danger]

9 minutes ago, MEADOWXI said:

May cannot see out May

With local elections in England on 2nd May and Euro elections on 23rd May it will be too much to hold that rabble together.

Both elections will be fought on BREXIT (even though the first should be about local services and spending, and the second not happening). They can only tear themselves apart, how can they write a Euro Manifesto they can agree on when they clearly don't come close to agreeing. Could it see a Remainer Tory MEP candidate in one area and an ERG Brexiteer Tory MEP candidate in another?  There can surely only be a major split in the Tory party if not a total collapse.

As for the rudderless ship that is Labour can't see them being much better at nailing their colours to a mast.

Can only see the extremes of UKIP and the new Brexit Party (Farage and Coburn) doing well due to low turnouts, disillusion, the general let's kick the useless fuckers that are in charge attitude of those that will turn out seeing worst ever results for the Tories and possibly Labour.

I intend to start drinking heavily and continue this throughout May as a coping mechanism.

Next month will become known as The Omnishambles of May

I think it will be full of people making snide remarks about her - beware the Snides of May.

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, MEADOWXI said:

May cannot see out May

With local elections in England on 2nd May and Euro elections on 23rd May it will be too much to hold that rabble together.

Both elections will be fought on BREXIT (even though the first should be about local services and spending, and the second not happening). They can only tear themselves apart, how can they write a Euro Manifesto they can agree on when they clearly don't come close to agreeing. Could it see a Remainer Tory MEP candidate in one area and an ERG Brexiteer Tory MEP candidate in another?  There can surely only be a major split in the Tory party if not a total collapse.

As for the rudderless ship that is Labour can't see them being much better at nailing their colours to a mast.

Can only see the extremes of UKIP and the new Brexit Party (Farage and Coburn) doing well due to low turnouts, disillusion, the general let's kick the useless fuckers that are in charge attitude of those that will turn out seeing worst ever results for the Tories and possibly Labour.

I intend to start drinking heavily and continue this throughout May as a coping mechanism.

Next month will become known as The Omnishambles of May

You never know, she May..............

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It would mean May's agreement is implemented.

No way that parliament would legislate on another leave vote that isn't directly linked to something.

I meant if it's May's deal - Yes/No - and it was rejected - then what?

As others have said Remain has to be on the ballot - but I have a nagging doubt that Corbyn (and certainly May) won't let that happen.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

May cannot see out May With local elections in England on 2nd May and Euro elections on 23rd May it will be too much to hold that rabble together.

Both elections will be fought on BREXIT (even though the first should be about local services and spending, and the second not happening). They can only tear themselves apart, how can they write a Euro Manifesto they can agree on when they clearly don't come close to agreeing. Could it see a Remainer Tory MEP candidate in one area and an ERG Brexiteer Tory MEP candidate in another?  There can surely only be a major split in the Tory party if not a total collapse.

As for the rudderless ship that is Labour can't see them being much better at nailing their colours to a mast.

Can only see the extremes of UKIP and the new Brexit Party (Farage and Coburn) doing well due to low turnouts, disillusion, the general let's kick the useless fuckers that are in charge attitude of those that will turn out seeing worst ever results for the Tories and possibly Labour.

I intend to start drinking heavily and continue this throughout May as a coping mechanism.

Next month will become known as The Omnishambles of May

 

If the ERG hadn't shot their bolt then I might have agreed it would be that early.

 

 

But we are talking about one of the most stubborn pigheaded politicians around who has failed to budge an inch on her precious deal. Can't see her being shifted unless their is a VoC in her - that would need to Tories abstaining or voting against her - or more defections from the Tories.

 

She will be gone before the end of the year - 12 December is the earliest they could force her out but she might do a deal to see it to the part conference and have her swansong there.

 

I suspect that the next 6 months will be dominated by rats jockeying for position to be next Tory leader.

 

 

[ayrmad]

32 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

I meant if it's May's deal - Yes/No - and it was rejected - then what?

As others have said Remain has to be on the ballot - but I have a nagging doubt that Corbyn (and certainly May) won't let that happen.

Not a nagging doubt, political suicide if there's another vote with REMAIN on the ballot, these fuckers are too self-absorbed to crucify themselves or their parties.

[Sooky]

That seems reasonable; I’d be wary of how a confirmatory vote would be structured and worded if these were the three options.
 

If there was a referendum held with those options, I think I’d word it as two question referendum:

1) Do you consent to the deal agreed between the Prime Minister and the European Union?
- Yes
- No

2) If Q1 is not consented to, do you favour:
- Revocation of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and remain in the EU on current terms
- Leaving the EU with no deal on WTO terms


That would, hopefully, allow two chances to avoid a no deal exit.

[sophia]

2 hours ago, Sooky said:

 

If there was a referendum held with those options, I think I’d word it as two question referendum:

1) Do you consent to the deal agreed between the Prime Minister and the European Union?
- Yes
- No

2) If Q1 is not consented to, do you favour:
- Revocation of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and remain in the EU on current terms
- Leaving the EU with no deal on WTO terms

 

 

This would certainly be on the "very difficult" side for the likes of Kirstene Hair.

[welshbairn]

I'd go for 

A) May's deal

B) Remain

C) Hit yourself in the face with a brick