Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Donathan]

3 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

No doubt someone will correct me here.

All this anxiety over whether we will need to take part in the EU elections if cowface can't get her deal through by May 23rd is surely somewhat irrelevant. Even when a deal is agreed don't we still have to go through a 2 year transition period, when we will effectively, still be in the EU? 

 

If the deal goes through there's a 2 year transition but we are NOT going to be EU members at that point. Free movement and frictionless trade will continue with the UK paying £39bn for the privilege, but we won't be on the EU council or involved in EU decision making and we wouldn't be represented by MEPs.

 

If there's a no deal there's no transition period at all, we're just out overnight.

[btb]

This is what Brexit has brought us to - being patronised by countries like Afghanistan, Venezuela and although they're not in the article below Iran!  

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/06/a-shambles-on-which-the-sun-never-sets-how-the-world-sees-brexit 

[Bairnardo]

This is what Brexit has brought us to - being patronised by countries like Afghanistan, Venezuela and although they're not in the article below Iran!  
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/06/a-shambles-on-which-the-sun-never-sets-how-the-world-sees-brexit 

Determined to commit economic suicide but unable to agree on how to kill itself

[emoji23] [emoji23] [emoji23]

[I'm Brian]

It's happening!!!

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/spot-the-difference-uk-passports-issued-without-eu-words/ar-BBVFxZY?ocid=spartanntp

 

Not blue though 

[John Lambies Doos]

There seems to be a bit of momentum behind no deal now

[gannonball]

 

 

[Donathan]

There seems to be a bit of momentum behind no deal now

From who?

[LongTimeLurker]

He probably wants the outcome that he thinks leads to UI and/or Scottish independence. Fingers crossed this doesn't head over the cliff. If last week's Cooper-Letwin legislation did anything it makes it the EU's fault if it does as soon as April 12th, so I think another extension is likely and the EU should be able to impose something like a second referendum as a condition. Time will tell.

Edited April 6, 2019 by LongTimeLurker

[Suspect Device]

17 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 

From who?

 

Momentum?

 

[ICTJohnboy]

18 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

There seems to be a bit of momentum behind no deal now

 

Looking that way right enough, I thought that  vote last Thursday night (Yvette Cooper/Letwin amendment) which was won by 1 vote, was meant to prevent the UK crashing out without a deal. It was said it would be fast-tracked through the Lords and expected to become law.  They all seem to have forgotten about that now.

[John Lambies Doos]

From who?

Just a gut feel tbh
1. Think public are just pissed off. Appreciate take with pinch of salt but sky poll yesterday
2. EU are very pissed off- statements from Dutch, French and Austrians yesterday.
3. Corbyn and May will agree on nothing, see recent talks.
4. Merkel and now Barnier visiting Ireland to scrutinize no deal on border effects and how they can help.
5. Britain increasingly becoming a total minter on world stage and being criticized by 'what some people seem 3rd world countries.'
6. Above plays right into the right wing, we rule the world agenda.
7. EU elections, just can't see this happening... Think it's a major sticking point.
8. EU won't want UK meps having temporary and potential catastrophic power, see Macrons comment yesterday.
9. Crys of just get on with the day job.. etc etc.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I know that there is the stereotype of thick leave voters but going by some comments on HYS and the Mail some genuinely are as thick as pigshit.

 

One poster on HYS arguing that only No Deal was Leave - anything else was Remain - you could point out that Norway, Switzerland and Iceland have never been EU members but by their definition they are.

 

They are utter fucking fruit loops of the worst kind.

 

Interesting that in terms of comment ratings the pro-Brexit ones are getting voted down by large margins.

 

I'm still convinced there is a silent majority who want this shit to end in a sensible way and not determined by a few red-faced blowhards.

 

 

[Donathan]

If anything for me Theresa May all but confirming EU elections will be held and Donald Tusk's talk of a "flextension" is making me think no deal is highly unlikely.

 

However, there is one conspiracy theory doing the rounds that makes me feel uneasy:

- Theresa May and her cabinet have already agreed that we'll leave without a deal on Friday unless they can somehow pass a MV4 next week

- The "talks with Corbyn" are designed to kick the can down the road and have a figure to blame when the no deal happens

- She's written to the EU asking for the extension until 30th June knowing that they'll decline and only a longer extension will be offered, but the UK will refuse to delay any further than 30th June

- This will lead to one final MV4 next Thursday with the hope being that Labour will finally back it to avoid no deal, if that doesn't happen then there will immediately be a vote of no deal v revoke which no deal will win

- The reason behind the conspiracy is that people are very surprised by the lack of cabinet Brexiteer resignations after the 7 hour meeting on Tuesday, which was seemingly won by remainers.

- Having said that I'm personally sceptical of this theory, because I reckon Amber Rudd, Phillip Hammond, David Gauke and David Mundell would have resigned from the cabinet and blabbed if this was the case, being the most prominent remainers in the cabinet.

[Granny Danger]

The talks with Labour will go nowhere.

It’s essential that when this is brought back to Parliament for May’s indicative votes that MP avoid transferable votes or they could end with May’s Desl v No Deal as the last two options.

[Granny Danger]

Just now, Donathan said:

If anything for me Theresa May all but confirming EU elections will be held and Donald Tusk's talk of a "flextension" is making me think no deal is highly unlikely.

 

However, there is one conspiracy theory doing the rounds that makes me feel uneasy:

- Theresa May and her cabinet have already agreed that we'll leave without a deal on Friday unless they can somehow pass a MV4 next week

- The "talks with Corbyn" are designed to kick the can down the road and have a figure to blame when the no deal happens

- She's written to the EU asking for the extension until 30th June knowing that they'll decline and only a longer extension will be offered, but the UK will refuse to delay any further than 30th June

- This will lead to one final MV4 next Thursday with the hope being that Labour will finally back it to avoid no deal, if that doesn't happen then there will immediately be a vote of no deal v revoke which no deal will win

- The reason behind the conspiracy is that people are very surprised by the lack of cabinet Brexiteer resignations after the 7 hour meeting on Tuesday, which was seemingly won by remainers.

- Having said that I'm personally sceptical of this theory, because I reckon Amber Rudd, Phillip Hammond, David Gauke and David Mundell would have resigned from the cabinet and blabbed if this was the case, being the most prominent remainers in the cabinet.

There won’t be No Deal.

[Ira Gaines]

Anyone who puts any blame on the EU for this entirely self inflicted clusterfuck of a situation probably gets headaches when thinking.

[Donathan]

Just now, Granny Danger said:

The talks with Labour will go nowhere.

It’s essential that when this is brought back to Parliament for May’s indicative votes that MP avoid transferable votes or they could end with May’s Desl v No Deal as the last two options.

 

Where the indicative votes failed, IMO, is that they were voting on resolutions that aren't necessarily mutually exclusive to one another, but MPs acting as though they were. 

 

I see five possible end games here, ranging from hardness to softness:

 

1. No deal

2. Leave with May's deal (UK-wide backstop, so we're in the customs union until we agree something else that protects the NI border. Mostly likely a sea border once the DUP can be binned at the next election)

3. Leave with May's deal + Customs Union (This essentially means the backstop is no longer a backstop but we're just in the customs union, Turkey style deal, free trade but no free movement)

4. Leave with May's deal + Customs Union + Single Market (eg Norway style deal, which means free trade and free movement)

5. Revoke article 50

 

 

Now, I've deliberately left out GE and referendum because they aren't end games, they are means to and end, but I think they should potentially come into play next week.

 

The process I would propose is:

1. Hold a round of indicative votes using the alternative vote method by secret ballot to figure out how the MPs actually feel

2. Once a favourite option emerges, hold a yes/no vote, if it passes then it becomes government policy to implement

3. If it doesn't pass, consider whether an amendment of it may pass, for example a confirmatory referendum

4. If all else fails by the middle of next week then call a snap election to be held alongside the EU elections in May and let all the parties lay out their policies

 

 

Now my very rough back of a fag packet calculations, these indicative votes would go as follows:

Round 1:

May's deal: 205

Customs union: 130

Single market and customs union: 125

No deal: 110

Revoke: 68

 

Round 2:

May's deal: 205

Singe market and customs union: 193

Customs union: 130

No deal: 110

 

Round 3:

May's deal: 305

Single market and customs union: 193

Customs union: 140

 

Final round:

May's deal: 370

Single market and customs union: 268

 

 

So then we have the ridiculous scenario where May's deal wins the indicative votes mainly off the back of second preference from Brexiteers, but probably still doesn't win the straight up yes/no as 35 hardline Eurosceptic Tories won't back it under any circumstances and nor will the DUP. The next option becomes a confirmatory referendum on May's deal. I honestly think this is the most likely scenario now, May and Hammond have both made insinuations that this is in play and we know most of the opposition parties will back this.

 

I think a referendum of May's deal v remain is highly likely in the autumn. If this can't be agreed upon then there will be a general election in the next 6 weeks or so.

 

[Donathan]

4 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Any sort of deal which prevents us negotiating with the US, India or China would be disastrous.

For me we really need to either have a Hard Brexit or revoke entirely.

Anything else weakens us in the longer term and possibly permanently and it's worth remembering that absolutely nobody voted for that.

 

A hard Brexit would be a fucking disaster. Name me a single country that is fully in Europe that doesn't at a very close relationship with the EU if not a member?

 

I think there are scenarios where the UK can thrive as a non-member, but only if it goes the route of a Norway or a Switzerland where we have a very close relationship with the EU and are effectively non-voting members.

 

Even the Turkey style deal is not optimal.

 

 

[beefybake]

1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Just a gut feel tbh
 

That was your belly rumbling.

[ICTJohnboy]

9 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Any sort of deal which prevents us negotiating with the US, India or China would be disastrous.

For me we really need to either have a Hard Brexit or revoke entirely.

Anything else weakens us in the longer term and possibly permanently and it's worth remembering that absolutely nobody voted for that.

 

Revoke entirely?

As opposed to revoking just a little bit.