welshbairn Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Just now, Tibbermoresaint said: Seats and voters are not the same thing. He accepted that above. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbitterandgrumpy Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 (edited) 12 hours ago, ICTJohnboy said: In an ideal world there's no way she could turn that number around, but you have to remember we're dealing with politicians here, and as I mentioned in a previous post a little bribery and corruption can work wonders. As you mentioned, we're dealing with politicians here. Bribery and corruption are all in a days work for them. Edited March 17, 2019 by oldbitterandgrumpy 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeadowArab Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Posted this picture on the Civil War thread. You get more people turning up for a car boot sale in Forres. Can't see many of them managing the 20 miles a day.I'm sure Hedgecutter could tell us exactly where that photo was taken. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suspect Device Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 This made me laugh. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/17/dutch-pm-compares-theresa-may-to-monty-python-limbless-knight 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Not sure if posted already. A delightful GIRUY to the Gammons of Waleshttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-47603147 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 If ITN have their finger on the pulse: https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-17/what-the-pm-offered-the-dup/ Theresa May has offered the DUP what amounts to a soft Brexit but only in a manner that could easily be repealed by any future government once the DUP no longer hold the balance of power. They would be mugs to take that and it will be interesting to see how the ERG types respond. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Beginning to sound like the DUP and ERG are folding and will back May's deal. Not sure if that would be enough to take it over the line, and the amendments could change everything. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 (edited) Think the bit you are missing is that keeping the DUP happy involves keeping all of the UK tied to the EU to an extent that would infuriate most ERG types. Meanwhile in Belfast, which way the DUP jumps probably revolves around whether what David Trimble has to say at the moment: https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/brexit-lord-trimble-backs-changes-in-backstop-1-8852648 resonates more with their electoral base than what Jim Allister has to say: https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/jim-allister-eu-backstop-would-be-the-end-of-northern-ireland-1-8852813 Suspect it will be the latter viewpoint, because an eventual united Ireland was the clear original intent of the back stop. {Edit: something I thought I would never see. Jim Wells being taken seriously by The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/18/dup-backing-will-not-secure-may-brexit-deal-says-jim-wells ...However, Wells said the DUP remained undecided on whether the government had secured enough changes on the border insurance policy for the party’s MPs to back the deal. “We still have a huge difficulty with the backstop because we see it as a waiting room for constitutional change. We could find ourself locked in there for ever,” he said...} Edited March 18, 2019 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 The backstop was never going to happen, if a trade deal wasn't signed on time they'd just extend the transition period. It was used as a red herring to block the deal in an attempt to get a hard brexit and a hard border. Now that a hard brexit has been pretty well ruled out, in the short term at least, they'd rather pass May's deal than risk the alternatives. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 In the absence of the back stop there can only be an open border between NI and the RoI long term if there is EEA type status for all of the UK. The Brexiters don't want that and want the UK to have completely separate trade deals from those negotiated by the EU. The only reason that NI hasn't been thrown under the bus by now by May and co so that could be readily achieved for the rest of the UK in NI's absence is that the DUP hold the balance of power. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 32 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Think the bit you are missing is that keeping the DUP happy involves keeping all of the UK tied to the EU to an extent that would infuriate most ERG types. Meanwhile in Belfast, which way the DUP jumps probably revolves around whether what David Trimble has to say at the moment: https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/brexit-lord-trimble-backs-changes-in-backstop-1-8852648 resonates more with their electoral base than what Jim Allister has to say: https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/jim-allister-eu-backstop-would-be-the-end-of-northern-ireland-1-8852813 Suspect it will be the latter viewpoint, because an eventual united Ireland was the clear original intent of the back stop. {Edit: something I thought I would never see. Jim Wells being taken seriously by The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/18/dup-backing-will-not-secure-may-brexit-deal-says-jim-wells ...However, Wells said the DUP remained undecided on whether the government had secured enough changes on the border insurance policy for the party’s MPs to back the deal. “We still have a huge difficulty with the backstop because we see it as a waiting room for constitutional change. We could find ourself locked in there for ever,” he said...} She appears to have promised the ERG a cabinet clear out where they will be handed the balance of power within the party, so it looks like they will play along until they can complete their takeover from the inside. Good news for the SNP if nothing else................. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 The idea that there are any future guarantees is laughable. No government in the U.K. can guarantee the actions of a future government. It is disingenuous for the government to suggest they can and incredibly naive of anyone who is willing to believe it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 If all the ERG types go for it, the numbers might still stack up if there are enough Labour MPs willing to back it. Long shot but not completely impossible. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 1 hour ago, welshbairn said: Beginning to sound like the DUP and ERG are folding and will back May's deal. Not sure if that would be enough to take it over the line, and the amendments could change everything. Yep. I'm hearing that the ERG will back the deal, assuming that the DUP will be doing likewise. What a wonderful political system we have in this country. Words like democracy, fair play, justice and so on, don't exactly spring to mind. Seems like the best we can hope for is that the EU turn down UK requests to extend A50, and that it is simply revoked on the 29th. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry94 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 57 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Beginning to sound like the DUP and ERG are folding and will back May's deal. Not sure if that would be enough to take it over the line, and the amendments could change everything. I don't really think the ERG will go unanimously for something tbh. There are leaders there and people with sway but there isn't much control over what they do. You've maybe got 60-70 members of the ERG and then 10 DUP members. I think you could maybe get a few of the ERG but you'd pretty much need everyone to unanimously come in line. It is possible but I'd be astonished if May pulled it off still - just don't see her doing enough for the DUP and I think the ERG won't go for it unless they all go in for it, there seems to be a bit of division there. This week is going to be fascinating. I get the feeling that it might be a complete shitfest and take a few unexpected turns. May has to get to the EC by Wednesday and has to get the extension sorted if she can't get the WA through. If she looks like she's not going to do that, I think donors and parliament could implode. No idea what happens if May cancels the vote again. Surely, she'd have to offer something tangible for an extension and she can't seem to get parliament to agree on anything - her removal maybe the only card she's got left to try and push the clock back. Even then, that doesn't change anything in itself negotiating wise so the EU might be inclined to finish this off properly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btb Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 1 hour ago, welshbairn said: Beginning to sound like the DUP and ERG are folding and will back May's deal. Not sure if that would be enough to take it over the line, and the amendments could change everything. Yeah, maybe she's a bit smarter than we gave her credit for, still she couldn't even have got within a sniff of winning MV3 if it wasn't for JCs, erm, opposition, Dread to think of the headlines in the Express, Mail, Telegraph etc if she gets her deal through - think I'll take to bed for a long, long time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bob Mahelp Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 The extremists will hold their noses and vote for the deal, believing that they can use their influence when it comes to the next 2 years of negotiating the nuts and bolts. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said: The extremists will hold their noses and vote for the deal, believing that they can use their influence when it comes to the next 2 years of negotiating the nuts and bolts. I have no doubt that idea will be offered and put forward by May when she tries again to get her "deal" passed for the 3rd, and maybe even 4th time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Interesting way to approach the negotiations with the DUP: You would almost get the impression that he is a Remainer who wants a long extension. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 It’s fucking shocking that the future prosperity of the country might be in the hands of 10 political dinosaurs. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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