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Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.


John Lambies Doos

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Guest Bob Mahelp
2 minutes ago, I'm Brian said:

So the most likely outcome as we speak is 

No to May's deal

No to no deal

Yes to extension

What is likely to happen if the EU tell us to bolt for an extension? Are we fucked or is there some sort of mechanism available to prevent a no deal other than an election or 2nd referendum?

The EU doesn't want a no deal scenario anymore than every sensible person in the UK wants one.

 

 

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Guest Bob Mahelp
8 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

I think that's the end of May, if she loses tonight she should resign. Unfortunately a leadership competition will be between a hard brexiteer and a soft one. Grassroots will vote for the hard one. I'd say Johnson, JRM, Javid, Dave's or the other former brexiteer (can't remember name) are more likely to be PM than Corbyn

May has shown a remarkable ability to remain completely unashamed by the chaos the she and her government are causing, and I can see no scenario where she will jump.

She may be pushed...which is another thing.....but she knows that the Tory party and the DUP want to hold onto power with every shread of whatever fingernails they have left.

We're in unprecedented waters. The rules that applied to previous administrations and made them call GE's, no longer apply.

 

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9 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Only options would be revoking Article 50 or a hard Brexit.

Yip.  I’ve said before if it’s that binary choice Parliament will revoke Article 50.

8 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

The EU doesn't want a no deal scenario anymore than every sensible person in the UK wants one.

Absolutely.

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Guest Bob Mahelp

My prediction from the beginning of this shambles was that there would be a cobbled together deal that would allow the government to use semantics to say that 'they've won'.

I feel no joy in believing that this what will happen tonight.

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6 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

My prediction from the beginning of this shambles was that there would be a cobbled together deal that would allow the government to use semantics to say that 'they've won'.

I feel no joy in believing that this what will happen tonight.

I said the same, or that the negotiations would drag on indefinitely and we'd never leave.

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3 minutes ago, renton said:

Individual Tory Brexiteers saying they'll back the deal tonight. DUP saying it's out - but could they abstain rather than vote against it? 

Duncan Smith on the radio this morning saying that abstaining on a decision of this magnitude and import would be cowardly.  So yes they might.

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6 minutes ago, renton said:

Individual Tory Brexiteers saying they'll back the deal tonight. DUP saying it's out - but could they abstain rather than vote against it? 

I was thinking that but Laura Kuenssberg says they'll definitely vote against. Wouldn't surprise me to see some about faces today though.

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1 minute ago, Adamski said:

Have the DUP confirmed that they are voting against the deal? All I can see is that they're not voting for it - leaving the door open to abstain.

Looks like they have aye, LK reporting as such.

May looks fucked and her time as PM is coming to an end. Couldn't happen to a worse woman, get it right round her (even though i've lost money). 

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Guest Bob Mahelp

There are plenty in the Tory/DUP ranks thinking at this moment as to how they can vote with the government so they can hold on to the power they have, but at the same time make it look like they still support the hardest Brexit and 'the will of the people'.

Expect lots of indignant blustering and empty words from these 'Brexiteers'....designed purely to fool the ignoarnt and racist amongst their constituents.....before they shuffle through the Yes lobby with their leader.

 

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1 minute ago, jamieson87 said:

image.png.fc6f71853400b25f57f0e6565d5ed2ab.png

Ah, thanks. Didn't see that.

Any estimates of how many MPs are declared as voting one way or another as it stands? I've still got a feeling that she might find a way through this e.g. ERG abstaining.

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It's almost impossible to predict what's going to happen in this crazy Brexit world. But May does look done for and I don't know where she goes after a defeat tonight.

May resigns

Leadership contest

Article 50 extended (at the very least £1b per month)

Hard Brexiteer wins Leadership contest and comes up against the same problems.

General Election? Peoples vote?  

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I'd struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority if another general election was held at the moment. If the vote goes against them tonight then it's probably their best chance of getting their deal through.

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