Guest Bob Mahelp Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 1 minute ago, welshbairn said: Might just bung a few quid on Yes. I would. Cracks already appearing in the ERG... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dirty dingus Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Bunfields not backing it 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Might just bung a few quid on Yes. 15.0 on Betfair exchange. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 49 minutes ago, welshbairn said: The worst scenario would be a GE with May stepping down and Boris, who is by far the most popular amongst Tory members, becoming Prime Minister. That would complete the insanity of this decade, along with fascists taking over the European Parliament in May. I feel like I'm in a Star Trek style nightmare alternative universe. Best chance for a Yes vote. Sturgeon would be almost incumbent to hold one. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 (edited) 20 minutes ago, dirty dingus said: Government motion 12/03/2019 Re Withdrawal to pass (Void if no vote - Brexit Specials No 1/18 Yes 11/2 Paddy Power thinks it's a cert to fail. Was listening to 5Live, they had the ‘politics man from Ladbrokes’ on! I’m astounded that Ladbrokes do so much betting on politics that they have a specific person. He said the minute that Cox’s opinion was known the odds against May’s deal passing skyrocketed. Edited March 12, 2019 by Granny Danger 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 20 minutes ago, dirty dingus said: Government motion 12/03/2019 Re Withdrawal to pass (Void if no vote - Brexit Specials No 1/18 Yes 11/2 Paddy Power thinks it's a cert to fail. 1/33 and 7/1 now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dirty dingus Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 1 minute ago, welshbairn said: 1/33 and 7/1 now. changing rapidly 1/20 and 15/2 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beefybake Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 I'll go with the bookies view. They're more trustworthy than politicians. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Londonwell Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Cox putting a more positive spin on things there with his statement to parliament. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamieson87 Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 That's yer ERG and DUP saying no now too. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Assuming no abstentions, 132 MPs need to change their vote from last time. That’s a huge ask. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Londonwell Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, jamieson87 said: That's yer ERG and DUP saying no now too. If that's the case then that's all she wrote for May's deal and perhaps for May herself. Extension here we come 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tintax Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Yep, that's May's deal dead in the water now. Surely hesding towards a general election or a second referendum now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Surely they will rule out a no deal Brexit tomorrow when May's deal is voted down this evening. Where we go from there who knows? Probably May would step down and force a leadership election. Possible GE and outside chance of Peoples vote. Interesting couple of days ahead ……. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted March 12, 2019 Author Share Posted March 12, 2019 I think that's the end of May, if she loses tonight she should resign. Unfortunately a leadership competition will be between a hard brexiteer and a soft one. Grassroots will vote for the hard one. I'd say Johnson, JRM, Javid, Dave's or the other former brexiteer (can't remember name) are more likely to be PM than Corbyn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Have some faith in Magic Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 My sense of what happens: Deal knocked back tonight. No, No deal passed tomorrow Deal back on the table ERG and DUP vote for it as they claim it's the only thing they can do to guarantee Rule Britannia status. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamieson87 Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Can someone check the odds for May's survival.... Can't check gambling sites at work. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, jamieson87 said: Can someone check the odds for May's survival.... Can't check gambling sites at work. 4/9 she gets replaced this year, 13/8 she survives beyond it with PP. And this. Edited March 12, 2019 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 So the most likely outcome as we speak is No to May's deal No to no deal Yes to extension What is likely to happen if the EU tell us to bolt for an extension? Are we fucked or is there some sort of mechanism available to prevent a no deal other than an election or 2nd referendum? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 1 minute ago, I'm Brian said: So the most likely outcome as we speak is No to May's deal No to no deal Yes to extension What is likely to happen if the EU tell us to bolt for an extension? Are we fucked or is there some sort of mechanism available to prevent a no deal other than an election or 2nd referendum? Only options would be revoking Article 50 or a hard Brexit. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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