NotThePars Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 My theory for today* is that May will go for a Canada plus plus plus minus minus to satisfy the ERG and the DUP and the Labour Brexiteers. * #2362 and countingf**k knows why she hasn’t extended A50 and called for a Government of National Unity. It would f**k over Labour more than it would her own party. The Lib Dems as well would jump at the opportunity to have an informal consultation on the legalisation of marijuana in return for legalising the Hunger Games for Universal Credit claimants. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Savage Henry said: Can you have a referendum in which two of the three options are effectively the same thing (no deal/May's deal are both leave options)? Seems tactically dubious at best. Difficult but it wouldn't just be the Leavers vote that would be split, some soft remainers would go for May's deal as a compromise to stop the argy bargy. There's talk of a 2 votes ballot, Leave or Remain, if Leave then hard or May's deal. Too complicated probably. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18 minutes ago, MixuFixit said: why u do dis, it's too easy Being a guest on a podcast isn't a job M8 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, NotThePars said: f**k knows why she hasn’t extended A50 and called for a Government of National Unity. It would f**k over Labour more than it would her own party. The Lib Dems as well would jump at the opportunity to have an informal consultation on the legalisation of marijuana in return for legalising the Hunger Games for Universal Credit claimants. I don't think that falls under the criteria in which A50 can be extended. I think there has to be a solid plan for either a referendum or a General Election. A consultation period (which is what that effectively would be) doesn't cut the (non-English) mustard. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 26 minutes ago, Savage Henry said: This raises the question of why he's so dead set on a General Election which he's by no means certain to win, unless internal polling suggests something far removed from the general polls. If you take out YouTory polls Labour are doing fine and could expect another campaign boost. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Detournement said: If you take out YouTory polls Labour are doing fine and could expect another campaign boost. Given how badly the Tories are doing across the board at this point in their term, a 3 percent lead (which is within the margins of error) is not great. Edited January 16, 2019 by Savage Henry 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Savage Henry said: Given how badly the Tories are doing across the board at this point in their term, a 3 percent lead (which is within the margins of error) is not great. Remain only has a 2 point lead! Lots of people are Tories and live off the profits of Tory behaviour. May could pish herself during the debate today and that wouldn't change. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I don't think that falls under the criteria in which A50 can be extended. I think there has to be a solid plan for either a referendum or a General Election. A consultation period (which is what that effectively would be) doesn't cut the (non-English) mustard.A Gov of NU would ostensibly be able to organise a ref on cross party terms. I think May still expects the opposition to blink first but everyone must realise that she has no intention of actually going through with No Deal. I could be wrong though and she might be that fucking mental. Also, Alex Wickham is reporting that 71 Labour MPs backed the second referendum event this morning and only 36 turned up. So you’re talking about 15% of Labour MPs appear to be fully committed to a second referendum. They’ve got what they wanted with a doomed VoNC you think they’d be all hands on deck. [emoji28] 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Savage Henry said: I don't think that falls under the criteria in which A50 can be extended. I think there has to be a solid plan for either a referendum or a General Election. A consultation period (which is what that effectively would be) doesn't cut the (non-English) mustard. Article 50 just says that it needs unanimous agreement from the 27, no conditions attached. The EU negotiators might have other red lines about it but they're not in the treaty. Anything past July would be constitutionally problematic as that's when the new EU Parliament convenes and we'd be a member with no representation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Detournement said: Remain only has a 2 point lead! Lots of people are Tories and live off the profits of Tory behaviour. May could pish herself during the debate today and that wouldn't change. Indeed. Another election or referendum would only prove that the country is as polarised as it has ever been. It's an absolute mess on so many levels. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1085265505244626944 https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1085250263458279425 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Sanchez Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Granny Danger said: Leadsom’s response to last night’s stunning government defeat is that the EU has to offer more concessions!!! What an absolute fucking idiot. They need us more than we need them. They have to give us more now the deal has been rejected. You wonder how people who believe this can walk and breathe at the same time without falling over. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, NotThePars said: So you’re talking about 15% of Labour MPs appear to be fully committed to a second referendum. They’ve got what they wanted with a doomed VoNC you think they’d be all hands on deck. They obviously understand that unless you tick the boxes of (i) already being generally reviled (ii) being in a safe metropolitian seat it's a bad strategy to stick your neck out for a second referendum that is highly unlikely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Article 50 just says that it needs unanimous agreement from the 27, no conditions attached. The EU negotiators might have other red lines about it but they're not in the treaty. Anything past July would be constitutionally problematic as that's when the new EU Parliament convenes and we'd be a member with no representation. I was going by what one of the European Parliament folk was saying on the World Service last night. According to the Grauniad, there's little to prevent a temporary extension until July, but anything beyond that would be dependent on May having a scheduled referendum or election (which I guess are the red lines). Edited January 16, 2019 by Savage Henry 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, NotThePars said: A Gov of NU would ostensibly be able to organise a ref on cross party terms. I think May still expects the opposition to blink first but everyone must realise that she has no intention of actually going through with No Deal. I could be wrong though and she might be that fucking mental. She seems totally fixated on personally knowing exactly what people voted for, thus her red lines. Unless she gets a revelation that she might not know for sure, and maybe it would be worth checking, I think she'd calmly walk us over the cliff rather than compromise. When she talks about talking across the aisle it's Kate Hoey she means, not Jeremy Corbyn or Hilary Benn. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 If the EU don't agree an extension, can we give ourselves 18 months by revoking then invoking Article 50? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Theresa May was defeated on her flagship last night by 230 votes. On this morning's Today program John Humphries asked "Should Jeremy Corbyn stand down?" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 36 minutes ago, Detournement said: If you take out YouTory polls Labour are doing fine and could expect another campaign boost. Is that essentially a poll from 1000+ Daily Mail online users? If so, true overall support for remain has to be well above 51%. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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