Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Jeff Venom]

She's now claiming it is a success despite the EU leaders reiterating that there will be no more negotiations.

She is fucking deluded.

She's playing to a gallery who probably isn't taking notice of what is actually happening.

[Dunning1874]

19 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

There won’t be No Deal.

 

You keep saying this as if there's no possibility of stumbling into it by accident despite the vast majority of MPs and voters not wanting it.

It's entirely possible that it happens despite no one wanting it to if May delays the vote long enough and suffers the inevitable defeat, but we end up in a parliamentary limbo with the DUP not willing to back a no confidence vote and Labour/remain Tories not willing to back a second referendum. In that scenario, what reason would there be for the EU to grant an extension to Article 50, if the lame duck government we're left with even asks for one?

It's not the most likely scenario, but it's also far from impossible. May will lose the vote and doesn't know what to do next, the DUP and Tory backbenchers don't want to risk Corbyn, someone will need to ask for an extension of A50 to avoid no deal happening by default. Parliament can only do so much in the absence of a government capable of negotiating a workable solution.

[ICTJohnboy]

Anyone care to compare the amount of chaos that would ensue in the event of a No Deal to that which would inevitably break out in Scotland given a majority vote to leave the UK.

My thinking here is maybe the SNP could consider putting their demands for Indy2 on hold - say for 5 years - in exchange for the government/parliament agreeing to revoke A50.

I know we've all said that the UK crashing out without a deal is unthinkable and just not going to happen - I'm just a wee bit concerned as to the amount of ongoing preparation to hopefully cover any major disruption in the event of that scenario - from both sides.

[cyderspaceman]

8 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

Anyone care to compare the amount of chaos that would ensue in the event of a No Deal to that which would inevitably break out in Scotland given a majority vote to leave the UK.

My thinking here is maybe the SNP could consider putting their demands for Indy2 on hold - say for 5 years - in exchange for the government/parliament agreeing to revoke A50.

I know we've all said that the UK crashing out without a deal is unthinkable and just not going to happen - I'm just a wee bit concerned as to the amount of ongoing preparation to hopefully cover any major disruption in the event of that scenario - from both sides.

They don't give a flying f**k about Scotland.

[cyderspaceman]

22 hours ago, NotThePars said:

 

I studied it at Higher and it's cropped up a few times. Also where yon fella Karlo Marx got his big break as well.

Heard of him and his brothers, Harpo, Chico, Zeppo and the other one.

 

 

 

 

 

Gummo.   I knew his name pre- Google.  

[O'Kelly Isley III]

I don't disagree, but having such a discredited politician trying to lecture people doesn't help the cause IMO.  Particularly when the folk who need to be convinced are those who dislike him most - and with good reason.
His motivation is also questionable.  He has proven himself to be a self-serving, money grubbing individual and his intervention is purely for personal promotion and gain.
 

I was just saying the other day that the person whose reputation has been enhanced in the last fortnight is John Major; if only May really had the 'cojones of steel' the Tank Commander was tweeting about the other day we might have avoided the current fiasco.

I'm no fan of Major but he could maybe knock sense into the gammons in a way Blair will never manage.

[cyderspaceman]

34 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

 

 

 

 

 

Haud oan, we aren't yet out of the EU, so presumably this 'deal' could have been done anytime in the past umpteen years. 

I freely admit to konowing absolutely nothing about this and I'm not going to try. Brexit has taken up enough of my time already.

[Guest Jedi]

Problem with a 2nd Ref, is that, despite one poll showing 62% for Remain, it is likely to be much closer than that. There is still a hard core Leave vote which would be fired up, and certainly participate, so could well end up with a reverse result of 52-48% for Remain......In the short term, get to stay in the EU, but the whole thing would continue to rumble on, and divide the country with many Tories calling for 'another' vote in few short years to Leave again.

Also, with regard to the Scottish dimension...as things stand if the UK ends up remaining in the EU it makes the case for Independence really difficult, as a key selling point at the moment is the chance of Scotland escaping the Brexit chaos by becoming Independent and then going back into the EU (in some form). Other thing is that the complete shambles and farce this has been from the start would harden a No position by arguing that if this is what it is like trying to break up a 50 odd year arrangement, how much chaos would a 300 odd one be etc..(can hear Davidson, Carlaw et al parroting that already)

Best bet independence wise, I reckon is still the UK leaving the EU in some form, and then playing the save Scotland from this mess card.

Edited December 14, 2018 by Jedi

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, Dunning1874 said:

You keep saying this as if there's no possibility of stumbling into it by accident despite the vast majority of MPs and voters not wanting it.

It's entirely possible that it happens despite no one wanting it to if May delays the vote long enough and suffers the inevitable defeat, but we end up in a parliamentary limbo with the DUP not willing to back a no confidence vote and Labour/remain Tories not willing to back a second referendum. In that scenario, what reason would there be for the EU to grant an extension to Article 50, if the lame duck government we're left with even asks for one?

It's not the most likely scenario, but it's also far from impossible. May will lose the vote and doesn't know what to do next, the DUP and Tory backbenchers don't want to risk Corbyn, someone will need to ask for an extension of A50 to avoid no deal happening by default. Parliament can only do so much in the absence of a government capable of negotiating a workable solution.

There won’t be no deal.

 

[Fullerene]

10 minutes ago, Jedi said:

Problem with a 2nd Ref, is that, despite one poll showing 62% for Remain, it is likely to be much closer than that. There is still a hard core Leave vote which would be fired up, and certainly participate, so could well end up with a reverse result of 52-48% for Remain......In the short term, get to stay in the EU, but the whole thing would continue to rumble on, and divide the country with many Tories calling for 'another' vote in few short years to Leave again.

Also, with regard to the Scottish dimension...as things stand if the UK ends up remaining in the EU it makes the case for Independence really difficult, as a key selling point at the moment is the chance of Scotland escaping the Brexit chaos by becoming Independent and then going back into the EU (in some form). Other thing is that the complete shambles and farce this has been from the start would harden a No position by arguing that if this is what it is like trying to break up a 50 odd year arrangement, how much chaos would a 300 odd one be etc..(can hear Davidson, Carlaw et al parroting that already)

Best bet independence wise, I reckon is still the UK leaving the EU in some form, and then playing the save Scotland from this mess card.

You are ignoring a hard core Remain vote that is probably stronger than it was before.

In 1916, you had idiots like Dave Cameron and George Osborne leading the Remain side so the choice sounded like:

"Yeah, it's crap - we need to get out" versus "Yeah it's crap but I guess that maybe we should sort of stay in."
There was also a lot of personality politics - blue-on-blue, Eton mess crap.

Hopefully, in a second referendum, the Remain argument would be argued better and anyone wanting to argue the case in a lukewarm manner will simply be told to f*** off.

[Detournement]

Who are the great Remain leaders now? Anna Soubry, Chukka and Tony Blair?

A lot of the reason that Remain has been able to build up momentum is that the debate has moved away from the merits/faults  of the EU and has focused on Project Fear plus opposition to JRM and his cronies. Once they actually have to start defending economic development in the EU, freedom of movement, freedom of capital, the threat of TTIP, Laval, Viking, Posted Workers, the EU Army, migrant quotas and the democractic deficit they are back on shaky ground.

[KingRocketman II]

1 hour ago, Dunning1874 said:

You keep saying this as if there's no possibility of stumbling into it by accident despite the vast majority of MPs and voters not wanting it.

It's entirely possible that it happens despite no one wanting it to if May delays the vote long enough and suffers the inevitable defeat, but we end up in a parliamentary limbo with the DUP not willing to back a no confidence vote and Labour/remain Tories not willing to back a second referendum. In that scenario, what reason would there be for the EU to grant an extension to Article 50, if the lame duck government we're left with even asks for one?

It's not the most likely scenario, but it's also far from impossible. May will lose the vote and doesn't know what to do next, the DUP and Tory backbenchers don't want to risk Corbyn, someone will need to ask for an extension of A50 to avoid no deal happening by default. Parliament can only do so much in the absence of a government capable of negotiating a workable solution.

May has delayed the vote and pushed it back to an indeterminate date yet one so close to 29th March in order that MPs will perceive it as either the best option to take or result in leaving with a NO Deal. May and her cronies consider that will now swing it in their favour as there is unlikely to be any further compromises from the EU to secure a better deal. It will then depend, I believe, on bluff. If MPs vote it down then they consider the leave date will be extended. If May repeats ad nauseam that the UK will leave 29th March then she believes that MPs will prefer her deal to a NO Deal. Of course there are plenty of other permutations particularly with an inept Labour who want to leave the EU but don't want to seen as  the party that leads the UK out off the EU but this would seem to be the current gamble. 

To say there is no possibility of a NO Deal is as sound as previously predicting the UK won't vote to leave the EU in a referendum. and the arseholes who predicted that normally ended their statements with a "and you can take that to the bank" type proclamation. 

[Detournement]

^good post^

It's far too late for May to switch to Remain now. She has to deliver some sort of Brexit or quit. If she quits and the Tories allow a fair leadership election it'll be a Brexiteer PM anyway. As long as the Tories are in power there's no path to Remain.

[Dunning1874]

31 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

There won’t be no deal.

Convincing argument.

[welshbairn]

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1073547669065383937

[Granny Danger]

6 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

Convincing argument.

No.  The I’ve made the argument previously, whether you agree with it or not, I was simply reiterating the point.

 

[ICTJohnboy]

2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

No.  The I’ve made the argument previously, whether you agree with it or not, I was simply reiterating the point.

 

 

These arguments you've made previously, and vociferously, haven't always been all that convincing either.

 

 

[Granny Danger]

1 minute ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

These arguments you've made previously, and vociferously, haven't always been all that convincing either.

 

 

I am not trying to convince anyone about anything.

 

[Fullerene]

7 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I am not trying to convince anyone about anything.

 

This is one of those logic paradox things, isn't it?  If I am supposed to believe you here - then clearly it isn't true - but then that would mean it is true.  Argh.

[John Lambies Doos]

Okay, Frank.  Have I understood you correctly?

I think he went off and joined the army