Granny Danger Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 In the whole Parliamentary debate and the case for a second Referendum insufficient emphasis is being placed on the shenanigans that’s went on before the vote. I find the following surprising but it appears to have been properly researched: A swing of just 634,751 people would have been enough to secure victory for remain. “Given the scale of the online advertising achieved with the excess spending, combined with conservative estimates on voter modelling, I estimate that Vote Leave converted the voting intentions of over 800,000 voters in the final days of the campaign as a result of the overspend.” It is based on separate research which found that 20 – 30 per cent of people decided how to vote within a week of polling day, with half doing so on election day itself. If, as Professor Howard has concluded, Vote Leave’s Facebook adverts reached tens of millions of people after they had should have stopped, they influenced huge numbers of voting decisions. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/vote-leave-referendum-overspending-high-court-brexit-legal-challenge-void-oxford-professor-a8668771.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: In the whole Parliamentary debate and the case for a second Referendum insufficient emphasis is being placed on the shenanigans that’s went on before the vote. I find the following surprising but it appears to have been properly researched: A swing of just 634,751 people would have been enough to secure victory for remain. “Given the scale of the online advertising achieved with the excess spending, combined with conservative estimates on voter modelling, I estimate that Vote Leave converted the voting intentions of over 800,000 voters in the final days of the campaign as a result of the overspend.” It is based on separate research which found that 20 – 30 per cent of people decided how to vote within a week of polling day, with half doing so on election day itself. If, as Professor Howard has concluded, Vote Leave’s Facebook adverts reached tens of millions of people after they had should have stopped, they influenced huge numbers of voting decisions. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/vote-leave-referendum-overspending-high-court-brexit-legal-challenge-void-oxford-professor-a8668771.html Did you see any Facebook adverts about the referendum? I've asked loads of people and haven't had a Yes yet. And you'd have to accept that if they did, they changed their voting intention because of a meme. This has been hugely exaggerated, maybe more powerful when targeted in marginal counties in the US election,. Edited December 5, 2018 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Did you see any Facebook adverts about the referendum? I've asked loads of people and haven't had a Yes yet. And you'd have to accept that if they did, they changed their voting intention because of a meme. This has been hugely exaggerated, maybe more powerful when targeted in marginal counties in the US election,. Ah the “I’ve asked loads of people v independent research” argument. Who to believe? Spoiler That’s sarcasm by the way, just in case your understanding of English is as poor as your ability to understand polling numbers. ’Loads of people’ still saying that immigration is bad for the economy whilst independent research confirms the opposite. Maybe you communicate with the wrong sorts on Facebook. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banana Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 (edited) Still got a feeling May is doing all this to force a 'hard brexit' as the 'better of two evils'. Knew very well this 'deal' was a non-starter. Edited December 5, 2018 by banana 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Granny Danger said: Ah the “I’ve asked loads of people v independent research” argument. Who to believe? Reveal hidden contents That’s sarcasm by the way, just in case your understanding of English is as poor as your ability to understand polling numbers. ’Loads of people’ still saying that immigration is bad for the economy whilst independent research confirms the opposite. Maybe you communicate with the wrong sorts on Facebook. I'm not on Facebook, but I've asked many people who are, none of whom noticed vote leave adverts appearing. Cambridge Analytica might have made a few bob, but I really don't think they had the power to change 800.000 voting intentions with a few memes. Did you see any on your feed? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, welshbairn said: I'm not on Facebook, but I've asked many people who are, none of whom noticed vote leave adverts appearing. Cambridge Analytica might have made a few bob, but I really don't think they had the power to change 800.000 voting intentions with a few memes. Did you see any on your feed? I’m not on Facebook. I was pointing out that your opinion v independent research is meaningless. The findings of the research surprised me but I would put them well before your opinions or my own. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I'm not on Facebook, but I've asked many people who are, none of whom noticed vote leave adverts appearing. Cambridge Analytica might have made a few bob, but I really don't think they had the power to change 800.000 voting intentions with a few memes. Did you see any on your feed?I'm not on Facebook either but I think the key phrase in all of this is 'targeted audience'. Viz the last general and local elections when the Tories dog-whistled the hardline Protestant vote in well known Unionist redoubts.As regards the FB constituency I wonder how many people who regularly scan the Wetherspoons website for 'A Whole Hog & 8 Pints For A Fiver' deals were tapped up ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inanimate Carbon Rod Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Did you see any Facebook adverts about the referendum? I've asked loads of people and haven't had a Yes yet. And you'd have to accept that if they did, they changed their voting intention because of a meme. This has been hugely exaggerated, maybe more powerful when targeted in marginal counties in the US election,.Yes lots, also Facebook can provide ‘targeted posts’ to buyers which dont even resemble adverts. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Ken McLuskey telling Labour they shouldn’t back a second referendum. I can see the Labour left, including Momentum, splitting between progressive leftists and protectionist dinosaurs like McLuskey. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salvo Montalbano Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Can't believe the news channels (BBC and Sky) appear to covering GHW Bush's funeral live. What did that c**t ever do for the world apart from create GW Bush?Got me points on the P&B Deadpool, so there's that. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said: Yes lots, also Facebook can provide ‘targeted posts’ to buyers which dont even resemble adverts. I'm sure it's all very sophisticated but I think it's more about Cambridge Analytica conning their clients out of money than real results. Quote " I estimate that Vote Leave converted the voting intentions of over 800,000 voters in the final days of the campaign as a result of the overspend.” Aye right, memes will do that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Tynierose said: Loony Len is a thoroughly unpleasant character, a rotten dinosaur. A second ref is the way too go. Unfortunately I suspect a second ref would polarise the situation further, in that England will vote in even greater numbers to leave, and Scotland will vote even more in favour of remaining, but of course we all know what the resultant outcome will be. The case for an independent Scotland has never been demonstrated more convincingly as is the case right now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Unfortunately I suspect a second ref would polarise the situation further, in that England will vote in even greater numbers to leave, and Scotland will vote even more in favour of remaining, but of course we all know what the resultant outcome will be. The case for an independent Scotland has never been demonstrated more convincingly as is the case right now. Depends on how it’s framed and what the Remain option looks like and who leads it. They’ll probably get humped as it stands if it’s lead by Soubry, Umunna, Blair et al. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerberus Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 58 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: Unfortunately I suspect a second ref would polarise the situation further, in that England will vote in even greater numbers to leave, and Scotland will vote even more in favour of remaining, but of course we all know what the resultant outcome will be. The case for an independent Scotland has never been demonstrated more convincingly as is the case right now. The problem is convincing the shitebags and Rangers supporters. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, NotThePars said: Depends on how it’s framed and what the Remain option looks like and who leads it. They’ll probably get humped as it stands if it’s lead by Soubry, Umunna, Blair et al. Who the f**k came up with the slogan "A People's Vote", sounds like Blair "The People's Princess" sniff sniff. Fucking awful. I agree, needs a few token proles backing it. What's Prescott up to these days? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Forgot to ask since the legal advice clearly shows Ni being treated differently to the rest of the equal partners in the Uk im assuming fluffy has resigned again? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 38 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Who the f**k came up with the slogan "A People's Vote". Caroline Lucas. And i agree it is a dreadful name, rather patronising. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 54 minutes ago, Cerberus said: The problem is convincing the shitebags and Rangers supporters. Pretty much one and the same thing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, sparky88 said: Caroline Lucas. And i agree it is a dreadful name, rather patronising. And it gives the Brexiteers an easy question, if a second referendum is The People's Vote, WTF was the first one? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, welshbairn said: And it gives the Brexiteers an easy question, if a second referendum is The People's Vote, WTF was the first one? In England it was a moron's vote. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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