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Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.


John Lambies Doos

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1 hour ago, Adamski said:

As pointed out by Mike Smithson on Political Betting, that likely ECJ ruling might push a few pro-Brexit MPs towards supporting May’s deal if it increases the likelihood that the alternative is no Brexit.

Those who oppose the backstop will not change their position.  

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6 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Those who oppose the backstop will not change their position.  

In normal circumstances I'd be confident that you were correct. But over the course of this process there have been so many last-minute abstentions and changes of mind that I'm still in mind to believe it if/when it happens.

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1 hour ago, Adamski said:

As pointed out by Mike Smithson on Political Betting, that likely ECJ ruling might push a few pro-Brexit MPs towards supporting May’s deal if it increases the likelihood that the alternative is no Brexit.

 

I suspect that ruling (although it's not a ruling yet) is more likely to encourage conservative doubters to vote against May's deal.

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Quite a significant amendment by Dominic Grieve being voted on later. If the government don’t pass the Withdrawal Agreement first time of asking, Parliament can amend it the second time - which may well vote to force the government into a Norway type deal as it’s probably the only scenario that would command a majority in the Commons.

An amendment for an amendment. What fun!

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Just now, Sooky said:

Quite a significant amendment by Dominic Grieve being voted on later. If the government don’t pass the Withdrawal Agreement first time of asking, Parliament can amend it the second time - which may well vote to force the government into a Norway type deal as it’s probably the only scenario that would command a majority in the Commons.

An amendment for an amendment. What fun!

Would Norway not require free movement of labour?

 

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4 minutes ago, Sooky said:

Quite a significant amendment by Dominic Grieve being voted on later. If the government don’t pass the Withdrawal Agreement first time of asking, Parliament can amend it the second time - which may well vote to force the government into a Norway type deal as it’s probably the only scenario that would command a majority in the Commons.

An amendment for an amendment. What fun!

But as things stand there isn't any indication that the EU and EEA would agree to the UK having a Norway-type deal.

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But as things stand there isn't any indication that the EU and EEA would agree to the UK having a Norway-type deal.

 

I was always under the impression the EU were happy to offer the UK a Norway or Canada deal? But the government wouldn’t accept Norway due to free movement and Canada due to the border issues?

 

Though I fully admit that Norway would be difficult to sell to the public. It gets the UK out of the CFP/CAP and ends ECJ jurisdiction, but the government have fully (and, in my opinion, wrongly) committed to ending free movement.

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3 minutes ago, Sooky said:

 


I was always under the impression the EU were happy to offer the UK a Norway or Canada deal? But the government wouldn’t accept Norway due to free movement and Canada due to the border issues?

 

The party line from the EU is that such a deal is no longer on the table - it's either May's deal, no deal, or Remain. Whether in reality there's flexibility on that is another matter.

Also a Norway deal would (probably) mean membership of the EEA, which could be problematic: would Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein, accept a far larger fourth state working on similar terms to them? I don't have a link but there was an article in the Financial Times a few days ago that suggested they wouldn't.

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9 minutes ago, Adamski said:

The party line from the EU is that such a deal is no longer on the table - it's either May's deal, no deal, or Remain. Whether in reality there's flexibility on that is another matter.

Also a Norway deal would (probably) mean membership of the EEA, which could be problematic: would Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein, accept a far larger fourth state working on similar terms to them? I don't have a link but there was an article in the Financial Times a few days ago that suggested they wouldn't.

I volunteer to go into immediate and robust talks with the Icelandic Foreign Minister.

Lilja_D%C3%B6gg_Alfre%C3%B0sd%C3%B3ttir.

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