Granny Danger Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 The DUP's actions last night strongly suggest that they are not going to compromise on Brexit. Add in the government having to release the economic impact figures and the Gibralter issue and things are getting more difficult for the PM and government. Theresa May is going to be left a shattered crone crying in a corner over this whole mess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capybara Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Has Mundall resigned yet???? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Check out @WritersFrock’s Tweet: 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1064829355694665728 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTG Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 57 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Theresa May is going to be left a shattered crone crying in a corner over this whole mess. Can we please speed things along to this stage. Cow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 It's going to be great when the DUP brings down the government. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BawWatchin Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Granny Danger said: Theresa May is going to be left a shattered crone crying in a corner over this whole mess. Like David Cameron? I can really see her crying in the corner of one of her 50 rooms in her mansion, blowing snotters into £100 notes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Looks like the UK Supreme Court has rejected the Government's appeal against the Article 50 withdrawl matter going to the ECJ. This is pretty important. If the ECJ rule that Article 50 can be withdrawn unilaterally then it will be an easy escape route. All those claiming that there is not time to do X, Y or Z will not be able to argue that there are no other options. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Looks like the UK Supreme Court has rejected the Government's appeal against the Article 50 withdrawl matter going to the ECJ. This is pretty important. If the ECJ rule that Article 50 can be withdrawn unilaterally then it will be an easy escape route. All those claiming that there is not time to do X, Y or Z will not be able to argue that there are no other options. *Pours a large Highland Park* This is all going horribly right....... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Detournement said: It's going to be great when the DUP brings down the government. They wasted a year of valuable negotiation time waiting for May to sign up again to the type of NI backstop (albeit slightly camouflaged this time) that she had already agreed to a year earlier. Guess from their standpoint the fear factor over Corbyn made it difficult to pull the trigger. Hopefully it's not too late for a general election to be enough to get an extension on Article 50 and avert a hard WTO rules Brexit. Edited November 20, 2018 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 (edited) I was thinking about this, and May has two problems: A looming confidence vote from her own party, and some pretty unfavourable parliamentary arithmetic for her deal. The ERG group doesn't have all the letters together - or maybe they can, and are holding off. They don't just need 48 letters, they need, what 158 Tories to get rid of May? Or they get stuck with her for 12 months. So the rebels probably want to hold off to the parliamentary vote: 48 can't overthrow May, but it's more than enough, with Labour, to break May's deal. Then, with the deal dead they'll find amassing the numbers required to bullet May far, far easier. Holding off also gives them time to sound out and sort out their own single candidate. So if timing of the vote is the one thing that the ERG rebels control, why does May not take it away from them? Go the John Major approach and resign as party head with the intent of running again. Force the Rebels into a contest before they have the strength to win it. That would have the effect of confirming May's leadership for 12 months (barring a GE defeat, if called) and with no alternative to May available, would stem the tide of support to No deal. With internal opposition to her deal collapsed, and some probably favourable soundbites and op-eds from the impromptu leadership election, she'd probably be in a decent place to get her deal through on the back of a few vaccilating Labour abstainers. The downside is that if she calls it, she could lose. However, if there truly are enough Tories willing to dump her overboard then she wouldn't stand a chance of passing her deal anyway, which would inevitably trigger the confidence vote then and she's gone in that scenario regardless. it's kind of a political Schlieffen plan, stomp on one opponent before they can mobilise allowing you to concentrate on the other. Edited November 20, 2018 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, renton said: I was thinking about this, and May has two problems: A looming confidence vote from her own party, and some pretty unfavourable parliamentary arithmetic for her deal. The ERG group doesn't have all the letters together - or maybe they can, and are holding off. They don't just need 48 letters, they need, what 158 Tories to get rid of May? Or they get stuck with her for 12 months. So the rebels probably want to hold off to the parliamentary vote: 48 can't overthrow May, but it's more than enough, with Labour, to break May's deal. Then, with the deal dead they'll find amassing the numbers required to bullet May far, far easier. Holding off also gives them time to sound out and sort out their own single candidate. So if timing of the vote is the one thing that the ERG rebels control, why does May not take it away from them? Go the John Major approach and resign as party head with the intent of running again. Force the Rebels into a contest before they have the strength to win it. That would have the effect of confirming May's leadership for 12 months (barring a GE defeat, if called) and with no alternative to May available, would stem the tide of support to No deal. With internal opposition to her deal collapsed, and some probably favourable soundbites and op-eds from the impromptu leadership election, she'd probably be in a decent place to get her deal through on the back of a few vaccilating Labour abstainers. The downside is that if she calls it, she could lose. However, if there truly are enough Tories willing to dump her overboard then she wouldn't stand a chance of passing her deal anyway, which would inevitably trigger the confidence vote then and she's gone in that scenario regardless. it's kind of a political Schlieffen plan, stomp on one opponent before they can mobilise allowing you to concentrate on the other. I don’t mean to be flippant or cynical but what is the most important thing for May, delivering Brexit or going down in history as the PM who delivered Brexit? Personally I think it is the latter; her self importance and legacy being more important than the actual act. To that end she will do nothing that jeopardises her position. If she takes a ‘back me or sack me’ position she will piss off many supporters who see a leadership challenge as being an indulgence. Everyone is saying she only needs 160 votes to win. Technically that is correct, but in any challenge if even 90 or 100 vote against her it will further expose the Tory divisions and portray her as a weak leader. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 I don’t know who the non-Brexiteer hardliners would vote for instead of May. She’s the sacrificial lamb for the majority of the party isn’t she? Not forgetting that there’s a spectre haunting the Conservative Party. The spectre of Corbynism. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, renton said: I was thinking about this, and May has two problems: A looming confidence vote from her own party, and some pretty unfavourable parliamentary arithmetic for her deal. The ERG group doesn't have all the letters together - or maybe they can, and are holding off. They don't just need 48 letters, they need, what 158 Tories to get rid of May? Or they get stuck with her for 12 months. So the rebels probably want to hold off to the parliamentary vote: 48 can't overthrow May, but it's more than enough, with Labour, to break May's deal. Then, with the deal dead they'll find amassing the numbers required to bullet May far, far easier. Holding off also gives them time to sound out and sort out their own single candidate. So if timing of the vote is the one thing that the ERG rebels control, why does May not take it away from them? Go the John Major approach and resign as party head with the intent of running again. Force the Rebels into a contest before they have the strength to win it. That would have the effect of confirming May's leadership for 12 months (barring a GE defeat, if called) and with no alternative to May available, would stem the tide of support to No deal. With internal opposition to her deal collapsed, and some probably favourable soundbites and op-eds from the impromptu leadership election, she'd probably be in a decent place to get her deal through on the back of a few vaccilating Labour abstainers. The downside is that if she calls it, she could lose. However, if there truly are enough Tories willing to dump her overboard then she wouldn't stand a chance of passing her deal anyway, which would inevitably trigger the confidence vote then and she's gone in that scenario regardless. it's kind of a political Schlieffen plan, stomp on one opponent before they can mobilise allowing you to concentrate on the other. Danger for May in calling a leadership race would be if someone like Boris came second and it went out to the members. The hardcore Brexiteers don't have that much support in the Commons but they might do in the Shires. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Just now, welshbairn said: Danger for May in calling a leadership race would be if someone like Boris came second and it went out to the members. The hardcore Brexiteers don't have that much support in the Commons but they might do in the Shires. Yeah, that's true enough. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 May’s throwaway line at the CBI about EU workers no longer being able to “jump the queue” is coming back to bite her. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: May’s throwaway line at the CBI about EU workers no longer being able to “jump the queue” is coming back to bite her. Good, because it's borderline racism and shows the Tories up for the self entitled fools that they are. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 That ghastly Kate Hoey was on the BBC Politics show at lunchtime extolling the virtues of a No Deal . She laughed off suggestions that this would be disastrous for the UK insisting it would be much worse for the EU. That line gets pedalled by quite a few of these hard brexit nutters. When they say that, do they mean it will be more disastrous for all 27 members? It is disturbing that there is that element in the government AND some of its support who would be happy with No deal. I'm beginning to wish I still lived in Spain. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodhull Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Things like this are why I have no faith in Labour delivering anything to stop Brexit happening. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 I wouldn't trust anyone in the labour party to sit the right way round on a lavvy pan. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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