Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[btb]

It’s clear the UK is not going to be ready to leave the EU on the official Brexit Day March 29 next year, (8 months away exactly) I reckon we’ll ask for an extension to Dec 2020 (the end of the current EU Budget) which will be granted as it will leave us in a "bend over and take it" position. May will be finished (surely?) and the Tories will be struggling to avoid an immediate election but I reckon would/will have to call one sometime in between the two dates (May 2020?).

Edited July 29, 2018 by btb

[John Lambies Doos]

Day 1 on a No Deal according to the Independent.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/no-deal-brexit-day-one-what-happens-economy-transport-nhs-eu-citizens-a8463636.html

That's the biggest load of shite I've read in a long time.

[Jacksgranda]

23 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

I don't think there will be a Brexit at all. MPs will reject whatever "deal" May comes back with and Parliament will then weasel out of implementing the Referndum result, while simultaneously being perplexed by why a great many voters despise the political class.

 

18 minutes ago, Detournement said:

There will be some kind of customs union voted through by loyal Tories and the Blairites.

The narrative is already taking shape with scare stories, "country before party" and new attacks on Corbyn.

Not according to this chap

20 hours ago, UsedToGoToCentralPark said:

23 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

I don't think there will be a Brexit at all. MPs will reject whatever "deal" May comes back with and Parliament will then weasel out of implementing the Referndum result, while simultaneously being perplexed by why a great many voters despise the political class.

That's not how it works. If whatever deal is rejected by parliament then the result is a no deal Brexit. To get no Brexit there would need to be a general election and a change of PM and then agreement to cancel article 50.

 

[NotThePars]

The problem with the worst case scenarios that the media are pushing atm is that if we brexit and that doesn’t happen there’ll be scope for the government to claim some sort of success if we aren’t rioting and looting after 12 hours.

[Jacksgranda]

13 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

46 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

Day 1 on a No Deal according to the Independent.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/no-deal-brexit-day-one-what-happens-economy-transport-nhs-eu-citizens-a8463636.html

That's the biggest load of shite I've read in a long time.

I'm a bit puzzled by the hysteria about reports that the government/agencies are stockpiling food and drugs. If Brexit is as bad as some are saying - viz that article you linked to - then surely it makes sense to prepare for the worst? Imagine the reaction if it did transpire there were food shortages and the government had done nothing to alleviate them?

[LongTimeLurker]

17 minutes ago, btb said:

It’s clear the UK is not going to be ready to leave the EU on the official Brexit Day March 29 next year, (8 months away exactly) I reckon we’ll ask for an extension to Dec 2020...

 

It's not that easy to do that, so don't count on it. An extension would have to be agreed to unanimously by all 27 rEU states. At that point Spain could say give us Gibraltar or no deal...

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/article-50-extension-major-shift-135936953.html

 

[Granny Danger]

10 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

I'm a bit puzzled by the hysteria about reports that the government/agencies are stockpiling food and drugs. If Brexit is as bad as some are saying - viz that article you linked to - then surely it makes sense to prepare for the worst? Imagine the reaction if it did transpire there were food shortages and the government had done nothing to alleviate them?

You have a point.  The Tory government are fucked if they take contingency measures and fucked if they don’t.

I’m loving it.

 

Edited July 29, 2018 by Granny Danger

[Jacksgranda]

1 minute ago, Granny Danger said:

You have a point.  The Tory government are fucked if they take contingency measures and fucked if they don’t.

I’m loving it.

 

You'd love it a lot less if they didn't (take contingency measures).

[Granny Danger]

1 minute ago, Jacksgranda said:

You'd love it a lot less if they didn't (take contingency measures).

Couldn’t give a flying f**k.  I am torn between wanting a Brexit that causes minimum damage to the majority and a really hard Brexit that causes chaos but exposes c***s like Johnson, Mogg and Gove.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

I'm a bit puzzled by the hysteria about reports that the government/agencies are stockpiling food and drugs. If Brexit is as bad as some are saying - viz that article you linked to - then surely it makes sense to prepare for the worst? Imagine the reaction if it did transpire there were food shortages and the government had done nothing to alleviate them?

Correct, but it also an admission that we’ve been sold a pup. And yet they will still continue telling us that leaving the EU is the best way forward.

[welshbairn]

It’s clear the UK is not going to be ready to leave the EU on the official Brexit Day March 29 next year, (8 months away exactly) I reckon we’ll ask for an extension to Dec 2020 (the end of the current EU Budget) which will be granted as it will leave us in a "bend over and take it" position. May will be finished (surely?) and the Tories will be struggling to avoid an immediate election but I reckon would/will have to call one sometime in between the two dates (May 2020?).

Read somewhere that the EU are likely to refuse an extension as they're worried that UKIP could do well in the European Parliament elections later on next year and join up with other far right parties to cause havoc. That scenario is precisely what Steve Bannon is aiming for. The only way an extension would be granted if it was to facilitate a referendum or a GE fought on the issue of reversing Brexit. Just what I read, not sure if it's true.

[Jacksgranda]

7 minutes ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said:

Correct, but it also an admission that we’ve been sold a pup. And yet they will still continue telling us that leaving the EU is the best way forward.

Food deal with Korea in the offing?

[Granny Danger]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

45 minutes ago, btb said:

It’s clear the UK is not going to be ready to leave the EU on the official Brexit Day March 29 next year, (8 months away exactly) I reckon we’ll ask for an extension to Dec 2020 (the end of the current EU Budget) which will be granted as it will leave us in a "bend over and take it" position. May will be finished (surely?) and the Tories will be struggling to avoid an immediate election but I reckon would/will have to call one sometime in between the two dates (May 2020?).

Read somewhere that the EU are likely to refuse an extension as they're worried that UKIP could do well in the European Parliament elections later on next year and join up with other far right parties to cause havoc. That scenario is precisely what Steve Bannon is aiming for. The only way an extension would be granted if it was to facilitate a referendum or a GE fought on the issue of reversing Brexit. Just what I read, not sure if it's true.

I read that they would only consider an extension if there were a GE or a second referendum, nothing about the issues in the GE which would be unenforceable anyway.

The argument of not having an extension without a GE or a second referendum is that there would be no greater clarity of the U.K. position than at present.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

Food deal with Korea in the offing?

Having checked the derivation of that phrase, yes.

[ICTJohnboy]

24 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

You have a point.  The Tory government are fucked if they take contingency measures and fucked if they don’t.

I’m loving it.

 

 

So are you suggesting the anti-semitic Jeremy Corbyn will lead us to the promised land?

[btb]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

It's not that easy to do that, so don't count on it. An extension would have to be agreed to unanimously by all 27 rEU states. At that point Spain could say give us Gibraltar or no deal...

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/article-50-extension-major-shift-135936953.html

 

 

It's no problem to ask for, the period as already been agreed as a transitional period, and we're continually being told the  r27 are sticking together, I'd be surprised if Gibraltar suddenly  becomes a "make or break" issue but like I said were going to be in a "bend over and take it position" and it'd be the ultimate slap in the face for the gammons if the UK has to cede sovereignty as a result of the EU referendum.

Quote

The overseas territory of Gibraltar - whose sovereignty is disputed by Spain - has been raised as a potential sticking point in Brexit negotiations.

The EU has said that Spain must agree to any arrangement between the UK and the EU applying to Gibraltar, a stance reiterated in the latest negotiating guidelines.

Asked whether he expected Spain to agree to the transitional arrangement covering Gibraltar, Mr Barnier said decisions on the issue would be "made for the 27, unanimously, by consensus".

I accept it's ambiguous and by no means certain that they'll comply but I think Spain will be "expected" to give way this time. 

***********************

Whatever happens the UK will be in a worse position than prior to June 2016.

Edited July 29, 2018 by btb

[btb]

51 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I read that they would only consider an extension if there were a GE or a second referendum, nothing about the issues in the GE which would be unenforceable anyway.

The argument of not having an extension without a GE or a second referendum is that there would be no greater clarity of the U.K. position than at present.

 

Well the EU couldn't demand a second referendum - it's the one thing that would guarantee a second Leave vote but to repeat myself it would leave (sic) them in a position to write the terms of any new deal (as if they weren't already) - the UK's position would be perfectly clear.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

There will be some kind of customs union voted through by loyal Tories and the Blairites.
The narrative is already taking shape with scare stories, "country before party" and new attacks on Corbyn.

Yes lets put our trust in a combination of Blairites and Tories, that worked very well with the vow.

[btb]

Not just the owner of a damned fine beard! 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/29/oh-for-the-days-when-it-was-always-brussels-fault-brexit-jeremy-hunt

[MEADOWXI]

You have a point.  The Tory government are fucked if they take contingency measures and fucked if they don’t.
I’m loving it.
 

But the insanity of marching on with a plan that they foresee a very possible outcome of shortages and hardship is surely a level of insanity

We might not get to no food but when the Avocado eating Guardian readers from the south unite with the Gammons from the north as they both wait for their avocados for breakfast and pineapple for their gammon and chips respectively that march on Downing St waving burning Guardians and Wetherspoons menus will see the fall of the Government