Jacksgranda Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 2 hours ago, Granny Danger said: I keep vacillating on this but I’m currently of the view that there won’t be a hard Brexit. Enough MPs will see sense even if it’s late on. May has neither the actual authority or moral authority to stand in the way of a tide of common sense. Neither does Corbyn. I don't think there will be a Brexit at all. MPs will reject whatever "deal" May comes back with and Parliament will then weasel out of implementing the Referndum result, while simultaneously being perplexed by why a great many voters despise the political class. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, Jacksgranda said: I don't think there will be a Brexit at all. MPs will reject whatever "deal" May comes back with and Parliament will then weasel out of implementing the Referndum result, while simultaneously being perplexed by why a great many voters despise the political class. Hope so, but doubt it. How many people who voted Leave thought that it would mean a hard border at Newry and Belleek and a need for the UK government to stockpile food and medicine to try to avoid severe civil unrest? Can remember posting on here about the RoI-NI border issue before the Brexit referendum and being treated like a crank even by Remain supporters for doing so, because the real issues at stake were not even registering as part of the debate. Having 52% voting for something nebulous and undefined in response to a pack of lies is not an electoral mandate for national financial suicide, so why hasn't Theresa May already done a U-turn and delivered a soft EEA style Brexit? The problem is that she had the unnecessary vanity general election and is now stuck in a scenario where doing so would end her government and political career, and rip the Tory party apart with much of their support base and many of the MPs defecting to UKIP in the aftermath clearing the way for Corbyn to probably win the subsequent general election against a split right wing handing him the outright majority needed to pursue far left policies. A perfect storm of circumstances (strengthening of Corbyn and DUP holding the balance of power included) is leading this over the cliff-edge into a level of Brexit that wasn't even on the radar screen during the referendum debate. Edited July 28, 2018 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsedToGoToCentralPark Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 I don't think there will be a Brexit at all. MPs will reject whatever "deal" May comes back with and Parliament will then weasel out of implementing the Referndum result, while simultaneously being perplexed by why a great many voters despise the political class.That's not how it works. If whatever deal is rejected by parliament then the result is a no deal Brexit. To get no Brexit there would need to be a general election and a change of PM and then agreement to cancel article 50. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrewDon Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 17,410,742 different people essentially voted for 17,410,742 different Brexits; Vote Leave and other pro-Leave campaigns didn't win primarily through cheating, but ambiguity. Brexit was whatever you wanted - or didn't want - Brexit to be. You now have a situation where it is impossible to satisfy the ideas and demands of all those voters through one 'deal'. This should have been entirely foreseeable, mind you. So, whatever happens next, it will be something that the majority of British people didn't vote for, and I'd imagine that the next general election, in England and Wales at least, will be centred on which of the two main parties has 'betrayed' Brexit and Brexit voters more. As I read in an article a few days ago, the Tories, to give them the best chance of avoiding Corbyn in Number 10, would need a leader who was trusted by a good number of angry Leave voters and already had something of a public profile; the bad news for the rest of us, is that Boris Johnson is that person. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 Saw this online recently, apologies if it has already been shared/posted on here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 50 minutes ago, DrewDon said: 17,410,742 different people essentially voted for 17,410,742 different Brexits; Vote Leave and other pro-Leave campaigns didn't win primarily through cheating, but ambiguity. Brexit was whatever you wanted - or didn't want - Brexit to be. You now have a situation where it is impossible to satisfy the ideas and demands of all those voters through one 'deal'. This should have been entirely foreseeable, mind you. So, whatever happens next, it will be something that the majority of British people didn't vote for, and I'd imagine that the next general election, in England and Wales at least, will be centred on which of the two main parties has 'betrayed' Brexit and Brexit voters more. As I read in an article a few days ago, the Tories, to give them the best chance of avoiding Corbyn in Number 10, would need a leader who was trusted by a good number of angry Leave voters and already had something of a public profile; the bad news for the rest of us, is that Boris Johnson is that person. I’m not sure a Tory Party led by Johnson would win a majority or even be the biggest party. One thing that is frightening is to remember that we have a very undemocratic voting system. In 2015 Cameron returned a majority Tory government with under 37% of the vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 17 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: I’m not sure a Tory Party led by Johnson would win a majority or even be the biggest party. One thing that is frightening is to remember that we have a very undemocratic voting system. In 2015 Cameron returned a majority Tory government with under 37% of the vote. Caught a snippet of a discussion on the radio where the contributors were discussing the break up/collapse of the Conservative and Labour parties and the formation of a new party that would sweep to power. I thought it was cloud cuckoo land stuff. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 Give the whole 'no food, no medicine' thing a rest. It's beyond Indyfref scare stories. Will a high percentage of people be worse off? Yes. Will there be food riots? No. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawpar Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 2 hours ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said: Give the whole 'no food, no medicine' thing a rest. It's beyond Indyfref scare stories. Will a high percentage of people be worse off? Yes. Will there be food riots? No. There will be food shortages if there is a hard brexit that is a no brainer. If the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal this will happen. Want to bet a tenner on it because it will be the easiest tenner I would win. No one said food riots. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 7 hours ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said: Give the whole 'no food, no medicine' thing a rest. It's beyond Indyfref scare stories. Will a high percentage of people be worse off? Yes. Will there be food riots? No. Good. A significant proportion UK nationalists were happy to use these stories against Scotland. If they’re now being used against them - well... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 Give the whole 'no food, no medicine' thing a rest. It's beyond Indyfref scare stories. Will a high percentage of people be worse off? Yes. Will there be food riots? No. The thing is we just don’t know what the potential impact will be, immediately after withdrawal from the EU. Recent history highlights that this nervous apprehension in itself is enough to set widespread panic in motion. If there’s one thing we don’t handle well as a general public, it’s uncertainty. I hope you’re right, but for many those qualms are realistic. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peppino Impastato Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 9 hours ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said: Give the whole 'no food, no medicine' thing a rest. It's beyond Indyfref scare stories. Will a high percentage of people be worse off? Yes. Will there be food riots? No. Tbf it was the fkn prime minister that said that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comrie Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 15 hours ago, Jacksgranda said: Caught a snippet of a discussion on the radio where the contributors were discussing the break up/collapse of the Conservative and Labour parties and the formation of a new party that would sweep to power. I thought it was cloud cuckoo land stuff. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 Blue pasports though 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 Day 1 on a No Deal according to the Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/no-deal-brexit-day-one-what-happens-economy-transport-nhs-eu-citizens-a8463636.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 10 hours ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said: Give the whole 'no food, no medicine' thing a rest. It's beyond Indyfref scare stories. Will a high percentage of people be worse off? Yes. Will there be food riots? No. OK technically not ‘food’, but if you take the last bottle of Rioja off the shelf in front of me you’d better make sure your life insurance is paid up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 15 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: Day 1 on a No Deal according to the Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/no-deal-brexit-day-one-what-happens-economy-transport-nhs-eu-citizens-a8463636.html The comments section of that makes wonderful reading. I predict Gammon v Non-Gammon fights breaking out accross Englandshire. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, Antlion said: Good. A significant proportion UK nationalists were happy to use these stories against Scotland. If they’re now being used against them - well... Maybe what you are now seeing is that the "scare stories" had some validity? The main difference would have been that Alex Salmond and co wouldn't have spurned something similar to EEA membership if it had been offered, and it probably would have been. The problem we face at the moment is that Westminster appears incapable of agreeing to anything and the outcome of that is a no deal WTO level Brexit once the two years after invoking Article 50 has expired. Edited July 29, 2018 by LongTimeLurker 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 There will be some kind of customs union voted through by loyal Tories and the Blairites. The narrative is already taking shape with scare stories, "country before party" and new attacks on Corbyn. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted July 29, 2018 Author Share Posted July 29, 2018 Article 50 will be extended. Nap 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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