Why no polls?

[John Lambies Doos]

Why do you think it's fallen?

We have a Tory majority government, Brexit, an unelected Tory prime minister and austerity.

Surely this is prime time for a surge in independence support... ? Except it's not surging, it's not even staying the same, it's going backwards.

Has it fallen? 1k sample across Scotland gives a +/- 3 error rate. Maybe it's risen 2 Base points from referendum. Maybe it's fallen more... who knows.
What's certain though is St Mirrens relegation to the seaside leagues this season.

[renton]

14 minutes ago, Lex said:

 

 

Why do you think it's fallen?

We have a Tory majority government, Brexit, an unelected Tory prime minister and austerity.

Surely this is prime time for a surge in independence support... ? Except it's not surging, it's not even staying the same, it's going backwards.

 

It's within the MoE of YouGov's last poll in August. YG's next poll is required to tell us if there has actually been a fall or not.

[Loondave1]

You have to laugh at the likes of Loondave masking their stench of shitty breeks with the " a referendum will never happen" patter. Yes voters are used to living in the UK, we'll just carry on regardless of a no or yes vote. If it's a no the unionist world will collapse in on itself [emoji23] pleasing.

You honestly think anyone including me is worrying about YES winning a referendum anytime soon ? YES voters will need to carry on regardless,forever is a long time.Still you can console yourself with the anytime now Indy2 that never comes.Im as chilled as ive been in a long time about the whole thing.I can however sense the first panic in a few YES posters and the more realistic ones can see it receding into the distance.Enjoy living in the UK it's your future.[emoji11][emoji9]

[ICTChris]

I find the details of the latest poll interesting.  9% of SNP voters at Holyrood would vote 'No' in another independence referendum but 23% of their Westminister voters say they'd vote 'No'.  Also, doesn't appear to be a huge class split in terms of Yes/No and Yes/No are fairly even in terms of how they'd vote in a second Brexit referendum.

Given how polls have done in terms of predicting outcomes this year it's probably meaningless but I find it interesting.

[ScotSquid]

38 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

The UK will be desperate for trade deals post Brexit. The EU will play hardball with the UK, but the UK will in the end up have to compromise.

This will lead to some kind of deal with rUK and the EU which an independent Scotland will be part of... 

Uh huh. Both sides will have to compromise. The UK and the EU. But it will be more difficult in future for rUK to trade with iScotland if iScotland is in the EU and the UK isn't. This is true of both rUK and iScottish businesses. 

And as Scotland relies massively on English trade, anything which makes that more expensive and difficult is horrific for Scotland.

Hence why leaving the internal market we currently have with the UK is a catastrophic choice. And as the GERS figs show even with the current environment of trade, Scotland has an enormous deficit to address in day One. 

The conditions are atrocious just now for Scottish independence. Which is why there isn't going to be a referendum . We know this.

Well maybe apart from you and Lambie's doos. Which is awkward for you .

[Peppino Impastato]

And nicola sturgeon as she said two days ago a referendum is highly likely in this parliament.   You're a unionist troll hb desperately trying and failing to convince.   We'll be having a referendum soon and we will win.   Your panicked tone along with the other britnats is very amusing,  keep it up. 

[Peppino Impastato]

All these flapping britnats going sturgeon isn't stupid that's why she won't hold a referendum now.  Well, you all seem to, accept she isn't stupid,  yet she herself has said repeatedly and consistently and as recently as two days ago a referendum in this parliament is extremely likely.   And she has the votes to pass it in holyrood any time she wants.   No wonder you're flapping. 

[Colkitto]

1 hour ago, ScotSquid said:

Uh huh. Both sides will have to compromise. The UK and the EU. But it will be more difficult in future for rUK to trade with iScotland if iScotland is in the EU and the UK isn't. This is true of both rUK and iScottish businesses. 

And as Scotland relies massively on English trade, anything which makes that more expensive and difficult is horrific for Scotland.

Hence why leaving the internal market we currently have with the UK is a catastrophic choice. And as the GERS figs show even with the current environment of trade, Scotland has an enormous deficit to address in day One. 

The conditions are atrocious just now for Scottish independence. Which is why there isn't going to be a referendum . We know this.

Well maybe apart from you and Lambie's doos. Which is awkward for you .

It may well be more difficult for iScotland to trade with rUK, we don't know. But it won't be impossible that's for sure as rUK will be desperate for trade deals. There's already a wobble on free movement of people.  

You're making too much of a big deal over this as it won't be nearly as bad as you make out. It certainly won't affect the timing of indyref2.

[hehawhehaw]

1 hour ago, ScotSquid said:

Uh huh. Both sides will have to compromise. The UK and the EU. But it will be more difficult in future for rUK to trade with iScotland if iScotland is in the EU and the UK isn't. This is true of both rUK and iScottish businesses. 

And as Scotland relies massively on English trade, anything which makes that more expensive and difficult is horrific for Scotland.

Hence why leaving the internal market we currently have with the UK is a catastrophic choice. And as the GERS figs show even with the current environment of trade, Scotland has an enormous deficit to address in day One. 

The conditions are atrocious just now for Scottish independence. Which is why there isn't going to be a referendum . We know this.

Well maybe apart from you and Lambie's doos. Which is awkward for you .

It does not matter how rationally or coherently you let them know the futility of hoping for sepref2.

I think they rather enjoy being strung along by the wee bint.

[Alan Stubbs]

23 hours ago, Loondave1 said:

Two points.Sturgeon has to keep the Indy2 extremely likely patter up due to having to pacify roasters who will wreck Indy2 with their impulsiveness.The other point is it is at least decades away and possibly never and the political picture is likely to be quite different.

 

4 hours ago, ScotSquid said:

Good post as usual.

It's only really the '45' badge kissing types that are going to be butthurt about the delay. Basically the thick leaflet distribution fodder. 

Nicola Sturgeon and the sensible Nats know this is not winnable currently. The can is just being kicked down the road. There will always be an excuse not to have one. Until it's going to win. If that's ever the case.

It's fascinating stuff really. Watching how the narrative will be spun so the gimp Glengarry wearing clown types get brought along with the thinkers so they think delaying it for years is a good idea.

Best hope for Scottish Nationalism is that the UK negotiates a brilliant Brexit deal. Ironically.

Nicola Sturgeon should be Theresa May s biggest cheerleader in the negotiations.

Again, are these statements actually based on anything?

As I've said, I have no doubt there will be a few folk bumping their gums if there isn't another vote straight away. Given the amount of folk who joined as an emotional reaction to various events, I wouldn't even be surprised to see a few direct debits drop off the longer it drags out. Given the ridiculously large number of people joining, nobody at the SNP will be losing sleep about that.

The problem would be if people stop voting for them in protest against a lack of Referendum. Who do we think people are about to switch their allegiances to? The Unionist parties? The Greens? Rise? Come on now.

Their challenge if no referendum is called in this parliament is to get the wording right on another 'vote for us and we'll call another one if we fancy it, wink wink' line in the manifesto. I'm sure they'll manage it.

10 minutes ago, hehawhehaw said:

It does not matter how rationally or coherently you let them know the futility of hoping for sepref2.

I think they rather enjoy being strung along by the wee bint.

You seem pretty well adjusted about the whole thing anyway.

[Peppino Impastato]

The problem with your approach stubbs is you assume the snp will ever be in this position again,  not only that you assume it will be in the very next parliament.  That's dangerously naive and complacent,  holyrood was specifically designed to prevent that ever happening,  the fact it's happened twice is almost a miracle,  to assume it will happen three times in a row is very complacent.   It may be now or never,  the conditions will neve be as good again and the snp have said at every juncture there is probably going to be one in this parliament,  I'm not sure why you seemingly disbelieve them. 

[Loondave1]

The problem with your approach stubbs is you assume the snp will ever be in this position again,  not only that you assume it will be in the very next parliament.  That's dangerously naive and complacent,  holyrood was specifically designed to prevent that ever happening,  the fact it's happened twice is almost a miracle,  to assume it will happen three times in a row is very complacent.   It may be now or never,  the conditions will neve be as good again and the snp have said at every juncture there is probably going to be one in this parliament,  I'm not sure why you seemingly disbelieve them. 

How does this panic to rush to Indy2 fit with your assertion that NO voters are flapping ? Again you are flapping the most and i suppose you should get credit for realising the chance for Indy2 is receding rapidly.Ironically if you succeed you will lose again and kill it anyway which is kind of amusing me.

[Peppino Impastato]

When you can post something remotely coherent I'll consider addressing the 'points' you raise. 

[Loondave1]

When you can post something remotely coherent I'll consider addressing the 'points' you raise. 

^^^^^
Flap flap flap

[Alan Stubbs]

1 hour ago, Peppino Impastato said:

The problem with your approach stubbs is you assume the snp will ever be in this position again,  not only that you assume it will be in the very next parliament.  That's dangerously naive and complacent,  holyrood was specifically designed to prevent that ever happening,  the fact it's happened twice is almost a miracle,  to assume it will happen three times in a row is very complacent.   It may be now or never,  the conditions will neve be as good again and the snp have said at every juncture there is probably going to be one in this parliament,  I'm not sure why you seemingly disbelieve them. 

I'll go with the evidence in front of me, which would suggest further electoral success for the SNP is pretty likely and a Yes vote right now is not. I'd say thinking both of those will go the other way is naieve.

The next vote will be a now or never situation, if it was held tomorrow - probably never. Which would be a tragic event, given the amount of royal commemorative crockery getting dumped in charity shops over the next few years.

Anyway, I think I'm the only person in the world who doesn't sign up to this universally accepted fact (that's a Yes and No voter both said it on this page) that austerity, uncertainty and everything being a bit grim is the ideal environment for Scottish Independence. The more right wing side of any political contest tends to do well in uncertain times. Devloution was pushed through in possibly the most upbeat, optimistic time in modern British history. That's a moot point though because if I'm wrong and we need everything to be depressing to get Indepdendence, don't worry, that's not going to change any time soon.

[AUFC90]

Uh huh. Both sides will have to compromise. The UK and the EU. But it will be more difficult in future for rUK to trade with iScotland if iScotland is in the EU and the UK isn't. This is true of both rUK and iScottish businesses. 

And as Scotland relies massively on English trade, anything which makes that more expensive and difficult is horrific for Scotland.

Hence why leaving the internal market we currently have with the UK is a catastrophic choice. And as the GERS figs show even with the current environment of trade, Scotland has an enormous deficit to address in day One. 

The conditions are atrocious just now for Scottish independence. Which is why there isn't going to be a referendum . We know this.

Well maybe apart from you and Lambie's doos. Which is awkward for you .

An independent Scotland will have the same trade arrangement as ROI which I would hazard a guess and say not much will change on that front. You make all this sound like a one way street Anthony. It would also be disastrous for the North of England if a good arrangement cannot be found and will cost just as many jobs in England as it would in Scotland. Economic sense will prevail, you know this though because you ain't stupid. You're maybe a sad fud who cannot bring himself to use his old account but you're not stupid.

[AUFC90]

How does this panic to rush to Indy2 fit with your assertion that NO voters are flapping ? Again you are flapping the most and i suppose you should get credit for realising the chance for Indy2 is receding rapidly.Ironically if you succeed you will lose again and kill it anyway which is kind of amusing me.

Panic rush for indyref2 ? I don't know a single yes voters who wants a referendum straight away, sit doon and stop taking shite.

[Loondave1]

Panic rush for indyref2 ? I don't know a single yes voters who wants a referendum straight away, sit doon and stop taking shite.

You might want to check out wee Peppino on this very thread and stop talking shite yourself.

[Peppino Impastato]

Two years isn't right now is it, this parliament is when to do it,  and might has to be before brexit by at least six months.   Brexit is looking like 2019 probably autumn (they will extend the two year deadline by six months) so 2018 it is, probably June.   That's what I and the snp have been saying consistently,  why some seem to think this has changed I don't know,  nobody has said anything to that affect. 

[Peppino Impastato]

And stubbs sorry but that is naive as f**k,  it's not just electoral success the snp are obviously going to be the biggest party in Scotland for the foreseeable it's commanding a majority in a system specifically designed to prevent that happening that is necessary for a referendum.   It's entirely possible  we'll never see that again.