Predictions - what will end up happening

[welshbairn]

There have been suggestions elsewhere on here that a GE calling for another Referendum could happen that would negate the result of this one.

I thought you were one of those agreeing with that view; apologies if not.

 

Are you against holding another indyref to negate the result of the first one?

[Michael W]

A second referendum on a Brexit deal seems a non-starter to me. Negotiations ruled out prior to Art.50 being invoked, and then would be subject to the two year time frame beyond which the treaties no longer apply to the UK.

A second referendum with the clock ticking runs a very real possibility of rejection and the UK running out of time and leaving with nothing.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

A second referendum on a Brexit deal seems a non-starter to me. Negotiations ruled out prior to Art.50 being invoked, and then would be subject to the two year time frame beyond which the treaties no longer apply to the UK.

A second referendum with the clock ticking runs a very real possibility of rejection and the UK running out of time and leaving with nothing.

 

And leaving with only WTO rules in place is the nightmare scenario.

[welshbairn]

A second referendum on a Brexit deal seems a non-starter to me. Negotiations ruled out prior to Art.50 being invoked, and then would be subject to the two year time frame beyond which the treaties no longer apply to the UK.

A second referendum with the clock ticking runs a very real possibility of rejection and the UK running out of time and leaving with nothing.

 

There's nothing actually stopping the UK deciding to stay in the EU after invoking Article 50 if the other members agree.

[Savage Henry]

Merkel and co saying no informal talks until you invoke Article 50:

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36637232

 

means either you do a complete U-turn and stay as is or you leave.

 

To be fair, there have been at least half a dozen contradictory statements coming out of the Eurozone.  It's as much a constitutional crisis for Merkel et al. as it is for Bojo and pals.

[Savage Henry]

A second referendum on a Brexit deal seems a non-starter to me. Negotiations ruled out prior to Art.50 being invoked, and then would be subject to the two year time frame beyond which the treaties no longer apply to the UK.

A second referendum with the clock ticking runs a very real possibility of rejection and the UK running out of time and leaving with nothing.

 

It's an exact parallel of the position Sturgeon is in.  

 

My guess is that Johnson and chums somehow negotiate a Norway/Switzerland type scenario and travel freedom and working rights are basically unaltered.

[dogmc]

It's an exact parallel of the position Sturgeon is in.

My guess is that Johnson and chums somehow negotiate a Norway/Switzerland type scenario and travel freedom and working rights are basically unaltered.

That will play into ukip hands tho. If leavers feel Boris has played them for chumps votes will flood into ukip. No wonder him n gove look so scunnered

[Savage Henry]

That will play into ukip hands tho. If leavers feel Boris has played them for chumps votes will flood into ukip. No wonder him n gove look so scunnered

Optimistically I like to think the UKIP immigration tactic was a relatively minor issue. These folk will soon change their mind when they realise they need a visa for their week in Magaluf.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

It will play into ukips hands. But will they ever get a majority? The brexiters can say we left the EU becuase trchnicaly we did. Dumb i know but thats politics isnt it

[Granny Danger]

There should still be a General Election imho - irrespective of what happens with Brexit. 

Based on what, a new PM? Not a reason IMO but I realise this issue is just a matter of opinion

 

Any new referendum would have to be on a new deal ie you just can't have a second referendum because you didn't like the answer to the first.

 

It seems to me that's the very reason many folk want it.

In some ways it is akin to the SNP's position on a second referendum.

  

I disagree. We have cause to call a second Independence Referendum due to material change. However much I want a second Referendum I would have to accept that without that material change there is no justification for this in the foreseeable future.

Are you against holding another indyref to negate the result of the first one?

Hopefully answered above. It's not what I'm in favour of or against, rather if it's justifiable.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

Optimistically I like to think the UKIP immigration tactic was a relatively minor issue. These folk will soon change their mind when they realise they need a visa for their week in Magaluf.

I get what you mean. But people are guilty of talking about visa's like its east germany wel be living in. Im just back from a holiday outside the eu. You get a card on the plane to fill out with your details. Give that to the immigration officer. Pay him 15 quid and he stamps your passport. Hardly rocket science

[dogmc]

Optimistically I like to think the UKIP immigration tactic was a relatively minor issue. These folk will soon change their mind when they realise they need a visa for their week in Magaluf.

Ukip have been hoovering up labour votes and if the leavers think they've been stitched up they'll go to ukip in their droves weakening the chance of a tory majority. Cameron has left Boris with a mighty turd that ain't gonna be easy to flush.

[Savage Henry]

I get what you mean. But people are guilty of talking about visa's like its east germany wel be living in. Im just back from a holiday outside the eu. You get a card on the plane to fill out with your details. Give that to the immigration officer. Pay him 15 quid and he stamps your passport. Hardly rocket science

Indeed. This is equally true.

[welshbairn]

I get what you mean. But people are guilty of talking about visa's like its east germany wel be living in. Im just back from a holiday outside the eu. You get a card on the plane to fill out with your details. Give that to the immigration officer. Pay him 15 quid and he stamps your passport. Hardly rocket science

 

It will be a pain in the arse joining the slow non EU queues at European airports.

[Savage Henry]

It will be a pain in the arse joining the slow non EU queues at European airports.

I can see that turning into "Mike Ashley ruined my life" type arguments in front of immigration officers and TV cameras. "We used to be able to use that queue! Why are we getting different treatment?"

[welshbairn]

I can see that turning into "Mike Ashley ruined my life" type arguments in front of immigration officers and TV cameras. "We used to be able to use that queue! Why are we getting different treatment?"

 

Proud Brits getting shoved in with the third world types at Alicante airport and getting the rubber glove treatment. 

[Savage Henry]

Proud Brits getting shoved in with the third world types at Alicante airport and getting the rubber glove treatment.

I'm coming around to this Brexit thing.

[Granny Danger]

It will be a pain in the arse joining the slow non EU queues at European airports.

  

Proud Brits getting shoved in with the third world types at Alicante airport and getting the rubber glove treatment.

Great minds eh?

[Carl Cort's Hamstring]

Thank you.

I was beginning to think I was the only person on here concerned about the implications of undermining the result of a referendum because 'we' didn't like the result.

 

Agree with you on this. It's incredibly naive and dangerous for people to start advocating undemocratic measures because we went for the 'wrong' option. And I'm someone that has been seething about the result since Friday morning.

 

I do think plebiscites on major constitutional change should have to pass a higher bar than a simple majority though.

[welshbairn]

Again, I don't see why decisions made by Referendums have to be unchanged for a generation however circumstances change. If it was appropriate to consult the people directly on an issue instead of using the normal means of representative democracy, then surely it would be appropriate to ask them again if we get a better offer from the EU?