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Predictions - what will end up happening

  

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ok, not asking what you want to happen  what do you think will actualy happen in the next couple of years.

 

My hunch is option 2 - the brexiters can claim to have delivered without having to ..well actualy deliver, the economy carrys on as usual and things settle down. the EU establishment stays happy - ish and we all still get along, this could be a hard one to sell to the little Englanders but the right politician could manage, despite all the tough talk on immigration a lot of the leave voters wont like it when its THEIR free movement which is being removed.

There's also the question of Ireland, if the UK was to go right proper out without agreeing to any movement of people deals then the republic of Ireland would be obliged to instate full border controls by the EU regardless of any deal with the UK, that would surely be a red line as its written in the good Friday agreement. that coupled with Scotland having indyref 2 would probably be enough to put the shits up any politician.

 

or

 

the London right wing realise that they could get by quite comfortably with votes from England and wales alone and are happy to let Scotland and N.ireland go , this would be seen as humiliation for the UK establishment but for a purely pragmatic politician it makes sense, it would leave a lot of pissed off loyalists in norn iron and larger but less violent number in Scotland but obviously once they are cut adrift then they'r no longer your problem.

 

its all just guesswork of course. interesting few years ahead

 

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I think it will most likely be 3.

 

Options 1 and 2 can both be ruled out. Even if the UK leaves there will be deals made on freedom of movement and trading rights. They will not be offered the same terms as others. The EU has no choice but to show others why leaving will be a bad thing for them. The UK will be offered as little as possible of anything that will be a benefit.

 

Option 4 will happen if option 3 does not.

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We will see riots and lots of hate crimes in England. And two years down the line the UK goverment will still be runing around like headless chickens cause they dont have a clue what to do.

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Option 2 is not accurate. Norway and Switzerland are not all but Members in name. To suggest so, demonstrates a profound ignorance of the role of the EU in governing its Member States. Their voters rejected EU Membership in referenda and did so for very good reasons.

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We will see riots and lots of hate crimes in England. And two years down the line the UK goverment will still be runing around like headless chickens cause they dont have a clue what to do.

 

Probably more than a grain of truth in that.

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The Brexit negotiations stagger along for a year or so, until it becomes obvious that the UK will be getting close to f*** all from the EU in any deal.

Indyref 2 about 18 months into negotiations.

Scotland votes 'Yes' this time and, as independent before the 2 years are up, gets to stay in the EU.

Wales and Norn Iron think: 'why didn't we think of that?

Wales has a new referendum and votes 'in' and tries to follow us.

Norn Iron cuddles up to ROI.

 

?

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UK leaves but not in the EEA more some kind of free trade pact like Ukraine or Turkey, Scotland says f*** this fur a gemme of sodjers and departs stage left with the decline of the pound and flexible treatment of the RoI-NI land border post-Brexit undermining the strongest rational pro-Union arguments along with the general distate for Boris and Nigel, NI stays for a couple of decades minimum but Nationalist opinion becomes more strongly pro-UI again leading to a fixation over birth rates and census numbers and paranoia over which way "Jordanstown garden centre Prods" would jump in a Border Poll, Wales slowly starts to be viewed as an English region once it can no longer be equated with Scotland. Eventually after 20 years rUK sees sense and everybody has a big group hug and decide to adpot Esparanto as the shared European language with the remaining Brexiters banished to the Falkland Islands.

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3.

The politicians will shit it.

 

Ideally it is vetoed by the Scottish Parliament. The seethe from little England would be utterly delicious.

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BoJo becomes PM (which is all he is really interested in) goes into negotiations with the EU. The EU throw him a few scraps, he triumphantly announces he has successfully renegotiated Britain's membership terms so there's no need to leave after all. Farage & Sturgeon are seething (for different reasons obviously). BJ trounces a divided labour party in the next general election.

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I think it will most likely be 3.

 

Options 1 and 2 can both be ruled out. Even if the UK leaves there will be deals made on freedom of movement and trading rights. They will not be offered the same terms as others. The EU has no choice but to show others why leaving will be a bad thing for them. The UK will be offered as little as possible of anything that will be a benefit.

 

Option 4 will happen if option 3 does not.

 

What's been the views of the punters in Belgium over the result?

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One of the things that definitely will happen is the far right, kippers and other associated helmets will be able to claim a legitimate democratic grievance when immigration doesn't go down and free movement of people forms part of whatever fudge is agreed by Boris with Europe. Which is like the biggest own-goal ever and can only lead to an upsurge in violence, racism and a further undermining of what democracy we have left.

 

I'm almost more annoyed about this than I am with the Labour party for kicking itself to death, effectively screening the tories all weekend. Fucking shambles.

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What's been the views of the punters in Belgium over the result?

 

I dunno, but the Swiss think we are mental.

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BoJo becomes PM (which is all he is really interested in) goes into negotiations with the EU. The EU throw him a few scraps, he triumphantly announces he has successfully renegotiated Britain's membership terms so there's no need to leave after all. Farage & Sturgeon are seething (for different reasons obviously). BJ trounces a divided labour party in the next general election.

Yeah and what about all the Leave voters? The idea that a majority of them, or even a significant minority, are unhappy with the result is bollocks IMO. Sure there are some who are going 'Christ what have I/we done' but they're a fairly small minority who are being given disproportionate publicity at present.

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 sorry mate, i meant the swiss, just got my countries muddled up

 

I wouldn't worry too much. Every time I'm home I hope the pilot on the return trip does the same.

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Boris doesn't want to leave the EU. His power grab is looking near to a success and his furious backpedaling has already started.

"We'll 52% isn't that big a majority so..."

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There is no chance of Boris becoming PM. The majority of Tory MPs hate or dislike him and will agree on another candidate.

If it were purely down to Tory MPs I'd agree, but if he gets on the ticket it goes to the wider Tory Party who love him; he'll win then.

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