ahemps Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 What if France, Holland and Sweden all have huge swings to leaving the EU? Is the EU still as enticing a place we want to be? All through the whole debate I didnt get a huge sense that Scotland were really that bothered and now it seems more like a knee jerk reaction. Sturgeon, Salmond, Cameron, Corbyn all admitted the EU had lots of flaws but now all of a sudden its an apocolypse????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonMan Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 As far as I remember, Sturgeon and Salmond weren't talking about any flaws within the EU at all. The SNP are almost absurdly pro-EU and pretty much didn't have any dissenters from within the party. Lib Dems were similar, although that's a lot easier to do when you've got much smaller numbers behind you. Anyway, will be interesting to see what happens elsewhere. Still think it'll be a while before we see anywhere else doing this, though; took a lot for UKIP to even get a referendum, and largely only happened because we have had perhaps the most shite scared and cowardly PM of any country around. Even then, Leave winning was a bit of a surprise too. Other anti-EU votes may not have quite the same success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahemps Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 I heard both of them say the EU needed reformed but it's easier to do it from within than from the sidelines. Anyway I'm not arguing about that. I'm very open minded and always consider every option put in front of me. I'm as passionate a Scot as you'll ever meet but I also want what's best for me, my family, friends etc so I wont vote willy nilly. I'm thinking that a knee jerk referendum that may take 3 years to implement due to the UK concentrating on the processing of leaving the EU which means they dont get round to making it legal. By that time the EU may be in turmoil, the EU states might bow to lots of the UK demands, the current Scottish deficit being far too high and the price of oil may lead to another NO. What happens then?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Britain is/was famous for being anti EU yet only voted leave by 4 percentage points . France is miles away from that, certainly in the immediate future . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peppino Impastato Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 What's the bets the next gers figures show Scotland is definitely much better staying in the UK. Shockerooni. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahemps Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/23/these-countries-could-be-next-if-britain-leaves-the-e-u/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahemps Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 2 big players in the EU, UK and Germany............ One has left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrshire_nomad Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 I don't think cameron genuinely thought he'd lose the referendum so that should serve as a massive warning to any country who are thinking about a referendum on leaving, it may be democratic but France holland etc won't put themselves in our position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 2 big players in the EU, UK and Germany............ One has left. The UK was never a big player - we were more akin to a supporter heckling from the sidelines watching France and Germany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Right, the EU revolves around Franco-German cooperation and the UK is very much peripheral to how things work having sought and received opt out after opt out. It's obvious Boris Johnson was expecting "OK let's renegotiate again" to be the response from Brusssls yesterday, instead Westminster was simply told to get a move on where the final exit negotiations are concerned. The UK's presence has been like driving a car with the handbrake on for the EU, so the reality is the other 27 are probably not in any way upset by the outcome and it's comic that people are trotting out the Spain and Belgium would veto it line for Scottish entry. They had no problem with Slovenia and Croatia joining after Yugoslavia fractured or with accomodating Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Once the UK is no longer a member state, no precedent is being set for Catalonia or Flanders, if Scotland gets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peppino Impastato Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Right, the EU revolves around Franco-German cooperation and the UK is very much peripheral to how things work having sought and received opt out after opt out. It's obvious Boris Johnson was expecting "OK let's renegotiate again" to be the response from Brusssls yesterday, instead Westminster was simply told to get a move on where the final exit negotiations are concerned. The UK's presence has been like driving a car with the handbrake on for the EU, so the reality is the other 27 are probably not in any way upset by the outcome and it's comic that people are trotting out the Spain and Belgium would veto it line for Scottish entry. They had no problem with Slovenia and Croatia joining after Yugoslavia fractured or with accomodating Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Once the UK is no longer a member state, no precedent is being set for Catalonia or Flanders, if Scotland gets in. yep, with 60% of the eus oil reserves having been members for 40 years and having just voted 62% remain the Europeanwill be ffalling over itself to let Scotland in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Right, the EU revolves around Franco-German cooperation and the UK is very much peripheral to how things work having sought and received opt out after opt out. It's obvious Boris Johnson was expecting "OK let's renegotiate again" to be the response from Brusssls yesterday, instead Westminster was simply told to get a move on where the final exit negotiations are concerned. The UK's presence has been like driving a car with the handbrake on for the EU, so the reality is the other 27 are probably not in any way upset by the outcome and it's comic that people are trotting out the Spain and Belgium would veto it line for Scottish entry. They had no problem with Slovenia and Croatia joining after Yugoslavia fractured or with accomodating Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Once the UK is no longer a member state, no precedent is being set for Catalonia or Flanders, if Scotland gets in. That was Borisconi's attitude at the start of the campaign. His pro-Leave attitude hardened after the personal attacks from Downing Street and leading Remain campaigners. The initial reaction from Brussels was knee-jerk. It's real position will emerge from the meetings over the next few days. The referendum was not binding. Britain is not obliged to Leave or to give notice under Article 50 within a defined period. There is a possibility that Germany will seek to put together a new deal for Britain, e.g. an opt-out of freedom of movement in particular. The EU has a record of doing deals after No votes. A second referendum can't be ruled out. There is a short-term solution that would give the EU and markets the stability that they want. Britain should join EFTA and the EEA with a separate deal on migration. That deal could include giving EFTA members an opt-out on implementing Directives/regulations that would have an adverse impact on their economies. In the medium to longer-term, Britain could stay in the EEA or negotiate separate trade deals like Switzerland. Setting a precedent for Catalonia is no longer and issue. In 2014, it was told in very clear terms that it would be out of the EU and the Eurozone if it seceded from Spain. An independent Scotland could join the EU but there are a lot of financial issues that would need to be addressed first. Again the EFTA/EEA option could suit us better than full EU membership with the obligation to join the Eurozone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Right, the EU revolves around Franco-German cooperation and the UK is very much peripheral to how things work having sought and received opt out after opt out. It's obvious Boris Johnson was expecting "OK let's renegotiate again" to be the response from Brusssls yesterday, instead Westminster was simply told to get a move on where the final exit negotiations are concerned. The UK's presence has been like driving a car with the handbrake on for the EU, so the reality is the other 27 are probably not in any way upset by the outcome and it's comic that people are trotting out the Spain and Belgium would veto it line for Scottish entry. They had no problem with Slovenia and Croatia joining after Yugoslavia fractured or with accomodating Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Once the UK is no longer a member state, no precedent is being set for Catalonia or Flanders, if Scotland gets in. The thing is, with the UK being by far the influential opposer to most further EU integration calls, is there not potentially a chance that the rest of the EU will push further towards ever greater union now, perhaps alienating some more of the other eurosceptic nations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanburn Dave Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 The UK was a big part of the EU success and ensured (reluctantly) financial stability. When the UK bolts the Germans will need other countries to take the strain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 The UK was never a big player - we were more akin to a supporter heckling from the sidelines watching France and Germany. The UK was the main voice against further integration. Contrary to what some sections of the press would lead you to believe, we were influential and although we didn't always get our own way, we got it far more often than we didn't. Some countries will miss us more than others, granted. Britain is/was famous for being anti EU yet only voted leave by 4 percentage points . France is miles away from that, certainly in the immediate future . France also has a significant disaffected working class vote. This particular demographic turned out and voted on Thursday, particularly in northern England, when they usually do not. The Front National are the current outlet of anger for a lot of these voters, but how many of them just do the usual and don't bother? I would probably guess France would vote to stay, but I wouldn't look at it as a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 The UK was the main voice against further integration. Contrary to what some sections of the press would lead you to believe, we were influential and although we didn't always get our own way, we got it far more often than we didn't. Some countries will miss us more than others, granted. Recall reading an article a while back which interviewed quite a few European politicians/journalists who noted that many smaller Eurosceptic nations will miss Britain as they were well aware that that they are not listened to, but when Britain raised the same concerns that they have, people listened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 The thing is, with the UK being by far the influential opposer to most further EU integration calls, is there not potentially a chance that the rest of the EU will push further towards ever greater union now, perhaps alienating some more of the other eurosceptic nations? The push for greater integration was going to happen anyway. If you go to Brussels, everyone talks about the progress of the the European "Project", a federal United States of Europe. Anyone who opposes the Project is dismissed as a racist xenophobe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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