Coefficientwatch

[ekok]

What is it going to take for everyone to accept we are now on a downward spiral, have been for years. Yes we get a welcome lift when Old Firm overachieve.. Yes everyone else hates them, fair enough,  when they stop delivering our numbers plummet. Please tell me when any other Scottish club has made any sort of impact  ? One off odd wins don't count , mathematically because it is the cumulative effect that matters. 

This season has has been an abject embarrassment,  no exceptions,  not one of our teams in Europe has given anything to  cheer. 

Solution,  100% total restructure of Scottish football.  Top to bottom,  nothing counted out.

Otherwise we will continue to kid ourselves we are relevant,  sadly we are not.

[Monkey Tennis]

2 hours ago, ekok said:

What is it going to take for everyone to accept we are now on a downward spiral, have been for years. Yes we get a welcome lift when Old Firm overachieve.. Yes everyone else hates them, fair enough,  when they stop delivering our numbers plummet. Please tell me when any other Scottish club has made any sort of impact  ? One off odd wins don't count , mathematically because it is the cumulative effect that matters. 

This season has has been an abject embarrassment,  no exceptions,  not one of our teams in Europe has given anything to  cheer. 

Solution,  100% total restructure of Scottish football.  Top to bottom,  nothing counted out.

Otherwise we will continue to kid ourselves we are relevant,  sadly we are not.

I couldn't give a shit about the relative strength of our league clubs to those from abroad.  I'm much more concerned about the strength of our clubs relative to each other.  We don't need a stronger club game; we need a fairer one.

If all our good players play outside of Scotland, that's just fine.  It's how things were in the 70s anyway when our national team was strong.

People have been conditioned to think this coefficient stuff matters, when it doesn't.

[tree house tam]

15 hours ago, Monkey Tennis said:

I had League and Cup doubles in mind.

Keep aiming big pal, championship and B&Q* cup is in your grasp.

 

 

*or whatever it's called nowadays. 

 

 

Edit: I've just had a thought, are QOS still in the championship? Surely not down with the Falkirk/Dunfermlines of this world?

Edited November 4, 2022 by tree house tam

[kenrobell]

If we want to keep the coeff up we can’t afford for two teams to be in cl next season it just can’t happen

[RedLichtie86]

So the adventures our Scottish teams in European have ended for this season.

A disappointing campaign to put it mildly. The Coefficient has taken a fair old whack this time around which is going to hurt for years. Especially in trying to keep a hold of that 3rd group stage place (Europa League playoff or Conference League Group stage)

Lets have a look at the teams performances.

Motherwell.

A farce. They never prepared properly and were duly rewarded by being papped by Sligo Rovers. That was a horrific in terms of the Coefficient. Motherwell should be beating them, on paper that is. So the loss of 0.4 points and the potential for more in the next round would have helped.

Earned £400k which doesnt affect anything in Scottish football.

Dundee United.

They got one on the hardest draws in that round. To come away with 1 win is no disgrace. But that 2nd leg was pathetic. Keeper all over the shop and it was embarrasing to watch. 0.2 points was better than expected.

Earned +£600k from this. Doesnt change Scottish football.

Hearts.

Fine margins against Zurich. Certainly didnt look worse than them in either game. But dropping into Conference League gave them a chance to do something.

Beat Riga both times. Job done against them. Now onto Fiorentina and Instanbul Basaksehir. FFS. They never made life easy for themselves. Injuries, makeshift defences, sending offs, managerial incompetence. But at the end if the day they were not expected to get anything against much stronger teams. They finished exactly where their seeding predicted. But 0.8 points from them is decent but a draw or 2 would have been a nice bonus.

Hearts will have made over £3.5m from this which is a good thing. They can use it to strengthen the team which could mean buying players domestically. I have heard the tried to buy Nouble for £1m in the summer. So other clubs could see some extra revenue in the near future. Or Hearts could also use the money to extend contracts on players and not lose them for nothing.

Celtic

Again. Fine margins. Plenty of attacking but end product somewhat lacking. That and defensive mistakes cost them in the end.

They didnt get the results. A poor campaign.

The amount of chances against Shakhtar in both games they should have got 2 wins. The games against Real and Leipzig..... very poor all round. Should have done much better.

In the end 2 draws earned 0.4 points to go with the 0.8 bonus points for making the groups. 1.2 points is a very poor return.

£30m in the bank. Doesnt change anything in Scottish football.

Rangers.

Before this campaign i didnt want them to make the Champions League. There squad is nowhere near the standard to play in it and feared they would get pumped. Which they did. Horrific performances and one to forget.

The 2 wins and a draw in the qualifying rounds plus bonus points for making the CL groups earned 1.3 points.

Now going by their performances in the CL i actually think their performances in the EL would have been bad too despite being top seeds. In order to make up the same amount of points (say they went out to Union) they would have needed to have won 3 games and drawn 1. Maybe they could have done that. Maybe not.

+£20m in the bank. Doesnt change anything in Scottish football.

With the solidarity payments given to other Premiership clubs we could possibly see them getting around £250k. Maybe more.

This and Next season will be interesting. The winners of the Scottish Cup or 3rd place can look forward to group stage football. At least £2.5m and the fans can get the passports out. Whether it being Aberdeen, Hibs, St Mirren, etc. If its a team other than Hearts i would be happy. If Hearts did make it then i would be expecting them to do better. No point in getting the cash and not improving.

On to next season.

Mon the Coefficient.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

2 hours ago, kenrobell said:

If we want to keep the coeff up we can’t afford for two teams to be in cl next season it just can’t happen

It's a little bit more complicated than that, the second team getting to the Champions League group stage is worth 4 points plus whatever they pick up from the qualifier on the way, in Rangers Case that's another 2.5 for a total of 6.5 this season, Which isn't too far from what they would have got for losing to PSV and picking up a couple of decent results in the Europa League. Of course you can ask all sorts of "What if..." questions about getting through to knockout rounds 

The other factor to take into consideration is that thanks to the coefficient being up we have more teams in Europe so the total points are divided by five instead of 4. Scotland are ranked 28th for this season but would be about 20th if Motherwell hadn't been involved. Last Season Scotland were 11th but would have been 9th without St Johnstone dragging the average down.

There's a feedback loop at work here. The better our coefficient the more teams we have which reduces our coefficient which reduces the number of teams which improves our coefficient

But presumably this applies to the likes of Denmark, Serbia and Cyprus as well

ETA: it'll be even more pronounced for the likes of Northern Ireland and Iceland who are around the three team/four team boundary

 

 

Edited November 4, 2022 by topcat(The most tip top)

[Monkey Tennis]

7 hours ago, tree house tam said:

Keep aiming big pal, championship and B&Q* cup is in your grasp.

 

 

*or whatever it's called nowadays. 

 

 

Edit: I've just had a thought, are QOS still in the championship? Surely not down with the Falkirk/Dunfermlines of this world?

Alas yes.  Last time down here we did do the available double.  I think we can safely say there won't be a repeat this time round.

Edited November 4, 2022 by Monkey Tennis

[Monkey Tennis]

6 hours ago, RedLichtie86 said:

So the adventures our Scottish teams in European have ended for this season.

A disappointing campaign to put it mildly. The Coefficient has taken a fair old whack this time around which is going to hurt for years. Especially in trying to keep a hold of that 3rd group stage place (Europa League playoff or Conference League Group stage)

Lets have a look at the teams performances.

Motherwell.

A farce. They never prepared properly and were duly rewarded by being papped by Sligo Rovers. That was a horrific in terms of the Coefficient. Motherwell should be beating them, on paper that is. So the loss of 0.4 points and the potential for more in the next round would have helped.

Earned £400k which doesnt affect anything in Scottish football.

Dundee United.

They got one on the hardest draws in that round. To come away with 1 win is no disgrace. But that 2nd leg was pathetic. Keeper all over the shop and it was embarrasing to watch. 0.2 points was better than expected.

Earned +£600k from this. Doesnt change Scottish football.

Hearts.

Fine margins against Zurich. Certainly didnt look worse than them in either game. But dropping into Conference League gave them a chance to do something.

Beat Riga both times. Job done against them. Now onto Fiorentina and Instanbul Basaksehir. FFS. They never made life easy for themselves. Injuries, makeshift defences, sending offs, managerial incompetence. But at the end if the day they were not expected to get anything against much stronger teams. They finished exactly where their seeding predicted. But 0.8 points from them is decent but a draw or 2 would have been a nice bonus.

Hearts will have made over £3.5m from this which is a good thing. They can use it to strengthen the team which could mean buying players domestically. I have heard the tried to buy Nouble for £1m in the summer. So other clubs could see some extra revenue in the near future. Or Hearts could also use the money to extend contracts on players and not lose them for nothing.

Celtic

Again. Fine margins. Plenty of attacking but end product somewhat lacking. That and defensive mistakes cost them in the end.

They didnt get the results. A poor campaign.

The amount of chances against Shakhtar in both games they should have got 2 wins. The games against Real and Leipzig..... very poor all round. Should have done much better.

In the end 2 draws earned 0.4 points to go with the 0.8 bonus points for making the groups. 1.2 points is a very poor return.

£30m in the bank. Doesnt change anything in Scottish football.

Rangers.

Before this campaign i didnt want them to make the Champions League. There squad is nowhere near the standard to play in it and feared they would get pumped. Which they did. Horrific performances and one to forget.

The 2 wins and a draw in the qualifying rounds plus bonus points for making the CL groups earned 1.3 points.

Now going by their performances in the CL i actually think their performances in the EL would have been bad too despite being top seeds. In order to make up the same amount of points (say they went out to Union) they would have needed to have won 3 games and drawn 1. Maybe they could have done that. Maybe not.

+£20m in the bank. Doesnt change anything in Scottish football.

With the solidarity payments given to other Premiership clubs we could possibly see them getting around £250k. Maybe more.

This and Next season will be interesting. The winners of the Scottish Cup or 3rd place can look forward to group stage football. At least £2.5m and the fans can get the passports out. Whether it being Aberdeen, Hibs, St Mirren, etc. If its a team other than Hearts i would be happy. If Hearts did make it then i would be expecting them to do better. No point in getting the cash and not improving.

On to next season.

Mon the Coefficient.

Lichtie Kwarteng still going strong.

[Monkey Tennis]

6 hours ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

There's a feedback loop at work here. The better our coefficient the more teams we have which reduces our coefficient which reduces the number of teams which improves our coefficient

It's almost as if it's all pointless shit.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

2 hours ago, Monkey Tennis said:

It's almost as if it's all pointless shit.

Careful pulling on that thread 

you risk destroying the whole concept of sport

[Monkey Tennis]

14 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

Careful pulling on that thread 

you risk destroying the whole concept of sport

Nah, I'm trying to restore it.

Of course sport is pointless, but that's its point.  Agonising about coefficient points however, involves a wanky pointless endeavour within a joyfully pointless endeavour. 

Beyond getting to point and laugh at the OF, I don't see the point.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

2 hours ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Nah, I'm trying to restore it.

Of course sport is pointless, but that's its point.  Agonising about coefficient points however, involves a wanky pointless endeavour within a joyfully pointless endeavour. 

Beyond getting to point and laugh at the OF, I don't see the point.

I’m guessing you didn’t enjoy maths class 

[Monkey Tennis]

16 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

I’m guessing you didn’t enjoy maths class 

Point taken.

[Ginaro]

Update after the completed group stages, with a comparison to before matchday 1:

7		Portugal	10.900	10.300	9.600	12.916	10.000	53.716 + 6.666	4/ 6
8		Belgium	7.800	7.600	6.000	6.600	10.600	38.600 +8.200	4/ 5
9		Scotland	6.750	9.750	8.500	7.900	3.500	36.400 +1.400	5
10		Austria	6.200	5.800	6.700	10.400	4.500	33.600 +3.600	1/ 5
11		Serbia	6.000	6.000	5.500	9.500	4.875	31.875 +3.000	1/ 4
12		Turkey	5.500	5.000	3.100	6.700	10.800	31.100 +8.400	4/ 5
13		Switzerland	3.900	6.400	5.125	7.750	6.000	29.175 +2.750	1/ 4
14		Czech Republic	6.500	2.500	6.600	6.700	6.750	29.050 +2.500	4

Austria 14 points behind with only Salzburg (v Roma) in the Europa League. Serbia 19 points behind with only Partizan (v Sheriff) in the Conference League. Both would basically need to get to the semis or final to catch us.

Turkey are 27 points behind but with four clubs still active, with at least 8 games to play.

Edited November 8, 2022 by Ginaro

[Arch Stanton]

31 minutes ago, Ginaro said:

Update after the completed group stages, with a comparison to before matchday 1:

7		Portugal	10.900	10.300	9.600	12.916	10.000	53.716 + 6.666	4/ 6
8		Belgium	7.800	7.600	6.000	6.600	10.600	38.600 +8.200	4/ 5
9		Scotland	6.750	9.750	8.500	7.900	3.500	36.400 +1.400	5
10		Austria	6.200	5.800	6.700	10.400	4.500	33.600 +3.600	1/ 5
11		Serbia	6.000	6.000	5.500	9.500	4.875	31.875 +3.000	1/ 4
12		Turkey	5.500	5.000	3.100	6.700	10.800	31.100 +8.400	4/ 5
13		Switzerland	3.900	6.400	5.125	7.750	6.000	29.175 +2.750	1/ 4
14		Czech Republic	6.500	2.500	6.600	6.700	6.750	29.050 +2.500	4

Austria 14 points behind with only Salzburg (v Roma) in the Europa League. Serbia 19 points behind with only Partizan (v Sheriff) in the Conference League. Both would basically need to get to the semis or final to catch us.

Turkey are 22 points behind but with four clubs still active, with at least 8 games to play.

Are Turkey not 5.3x5 ie 26.5 points behind Scotland?

[Ginaro]

29 minutes ago, Arch Stanton said:

Are Turkey not 5.3x5 ie 26.5 points behind Scotland?

Whoops (I multiplied by 4), so yes they are 27 behind. They'd need three clubs to win all their games and reach at least the semis to close that gap. Maybe 9th will be safe after all...

Edited November 8, 2022 by Ginaro

[ahemps]

This season Scotland are currently the 26th best performing country. 

If Qarabaq and Sherriff pick up something Scotland could finish 28th this season. 

 

[Ginaro]

After the knockout round play-offs, Austria and Serbia teams are no longer in Europe, so it's basically a question of whether Turkeys 1xEL and 2xECL teams can score 25 points out of possible 48 to overtake us for 9th.

[Monkey Tennis]

On 23/02/2023 at 23:49, Ginaro said:

After the knockout round play-offs, Austria and Serbia teams are no longer in Europe, so it's basically a question of whether Turkeys 1xEL and 2xECL teams can score 25 points out of possible 48 to overtake us for 9th.

Fingers crossed.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

On 23/02/2023 at 23:49, Ginaro said:

After the knockout round play-offs, Austria and Serbia teams are no longer in Europe, so it's basically a question of whether Turkeys 1xEL and 2xECL teams can score 25 points out of possible 48 to overtake us for 9th.

Well they've dropped five out of six in the first legs already so that's now 24 points from 42

Europa League Round of 16 (first Leg)
Sevilla 2-0 Fenerbahçe

Europa Conference League Round of 16 (first Leg)
Fiorentina 1–0    Sivasspor
Gent 1–1 İstanbul Başakşehir

Edited March 14, 2023 by topcat(The most tip top)