Coefficientwatch

[RedLichtie86]

Ah balls. Forgot about that 2ns place team scenario.

But should be confident they wont f**k it up.....

[ahemps]

1 hour ago, Ginaro said:

11th place is usually around 33 points over the 5 year period so the closer you can get to a ~6.6 average the better, and if we can avoid having a bad year which drags us down then it'll make it easier to do that. 

I wonder if this average will remain now the conference league is here. Austria, Switzerland, Serbia, Belgium and Denmark have all got teams doing well in this new competition.

Our performance in Europe so for this season has us in 22nd position and I would say that is with the OF having had reasonable campaigns, could do slightly better but could do worse. It is fortunate for Scotland that Ukraine's performances have them 26th. Looking at performances this is a decent season for us, no way will Ukraine or Russia be thinking that. We really need another side in the ECL and gaining 4-7pts to stay competitive with these nations.

 

[craigkillie]

It's joint 20th rather than 22nd, and below Austria in 8th most of the teams are fairly bunched up with no huge differences between them.

There's a guaranteed CL group stage place next year which could be a good or a bad thing depending on the draw, but the bonus points associated with that will help too.

[Bully Wee Villa]

18 hours ago, Ginaro said:

The good thing is we've improved on the 4.375 that dropped off this season. And with a couple more wins we would be up to 5.9.

11th place is usually around 33 points over the 5 year period so the closer you can get to a ~6.6 average the better, and if we can avoid having a bad year which drags us down then it'll make it easier to do that. 

Our 2nd place isn't actually guaranteed a group stage place, they would need to win at least one of their ties (but they have three chances). Or if the EL title holder spot isn't used then 2nd would be bumped up to CL QR3 which is EL GS guaranteed. 

Seems a bit mad that 2nd place isn't guaranteed Group Stage football but 3rd place is (if one of the top two win the Scottish Cup). 

[FredFlintsone]

On 10/12/2021 at 13:08, RedLichtie86 said:

Wouldnt worry about this season too much. So we have earned 5.1 so far. Dependant on results on the next rounds we could be nearer 6.

Teams around us, Austria, Russia, Serbia and Ukraine will take a hit next season as the 2017/18 points are wiped off. We will lose 4 points but will have 3 teams (1st, 2nd, and SC winner) in the Group Stages next season despite what happens in qualifiers alongside potentially 2 more teams if they can get through.

Am I understanding this correctly? Will 3rd place in the SPL this season mean automatic qualification into the Conference League group stages?

[RedLichtie86]

Am I understanding this correctly? Will 3rd place in the SPL this season mean automatic qualification into the Conference League group stages?

The Scottish Cup winners this season will enter at the Europa League Playoff stage.

Win that tie and they are in the Europa League.

Lose and they will drop into the Europa Conference League Group Stages.

If the Scottish cup is one by a team that has already qualified for Europe through the league position (1st-4th) then the place will be awarded to the 5th place team. 3rd would represent Scotland in the Europa League in that scenario.

So this season 3rd place or the Scottish cup is going to be highly lucrative. Be worth at least £2.5m im prizemoney from UEFA alone.

[FredFlintsone]

27 minutes ago, RedLichtie86 said:

So this season 3rd place or the Scottish cup is going to be highly lucrative. Be worth at least £2.5m im prizemoney from UEFA alone.

Ooooft! Not half. That kind of money is almost a game changer for non Old Firm clubs. Definitely so for a St Johnstone or a Dundee United.

 So as to the other teams. I assume the winners go straight into to CL groups and the 2nd place goes directly to the last CL  qualifying round PROVIDED this years champions league winner also qualify based on their domestic league position? If not then these 2 teams move back a CL round.

What of 4th and 5th place in the SPL? I assume they go into the conference league qualifying rounds.

[FredFlintsone]

15 hours ago, FredFlintsone said:

 

Dortmund v Rangers

Celtic v Bodo Glimt

 

Awful draw for Rangers. They'll be doing well to get a single draw over the 2 matches.

Id expect Celtic to go through possibly with an away draw and a home win. However Bodo are top of the Norwegian league so must be decent. A Norwegian side made it to the last 8 of the Europa league last year I think.

[Ginaro]

21 minutes ago, FredFlintsone said:

Dortmund v Rangers

Celtic v Bodo Glimt

Awful draw for Rangers. They'll be doing well to get a single draw over the 2 matches.

Id expect Celtic to go through possibly with an away draw and a home win. However Bodo are top of the Norwegian league so must be decent. A Norwegian side made it to the last 8 of the Europa league last year I think.

Going by previous seasons, the Norwegian league doesn't start until the end of March so Celtic will have the upper hand in that regard.

It was Molde who made it to the last 16.

[charger29]

The projections for next seasons European competitions have been posted on the kassiesa forums if anyone want to have a look.

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=FB41E3B5AA1A44FE!4317&ithint=file%2cxlsx&authkey=!ABqeGDbe7-QwpCY

[Ginaro]

1 hour ago, charger29 said:

The projections for next seasons European competitions have been posted on the kassiesa forums if anyone want to have a look.

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=FB41E3B5AA1A44FE!4317&ithint=file%2cxlsx&authkey=!ABqeGDbe7-QwpCY

Was about to post that.  Long way to go but as it stands - Rangers CL pot 4, Celtic only seeded for CL Q2 then pot 2 again if they are in the EL. 

Hearts as CW/3rd would face either runners-up/cup winners from the countries around us, or champions of lower ranked countries dropping down from CL qualifying. Fortunately they have a guaranteed ECL spot, likely in pot 4. Motherwell and Hibs unseeded in ECL Q3 with Hibs seeded in Q2.

Of course it all depends on who qualifies and whether match results follow the club coefficients.

[charger29]

Was about to post that. [emoji4] Long way to go but as it stands - Rangers CL pot 4, Celtic only seeded for CL Q2 then pot 2 again if they are in the EL. 
Hearts as CW/3rd would face either runners-up/cup winners from the countries around us, or champions of lower ranked countries dropping down from CL qualifying. Fortunately they have a guaranteed ECL spot, likely in pot 4. Motherwell and Hibs unseeded in ECL Q3 with Hibs seeded in Q2.
Of course it all depends on who qualifies and whether match results follow the club coefficients.

Poor Aberdeen as well. Finally get enough points to be seeded in q3 and they're 6th in the league.

[Buckets]

Rangers' win puts Scotland back up to 9th ahead of Russia with Zenit losing. Strange how finishing 2nd in the group and winning home and away in the playoff is worth more than getting straight into the last 16 by topping the group. Looks likely Scotland will be in the top 10 next year unless the Serbian teams can get 4 wins. 

Staying in the top 12 is all that's needed to give 3rd/Scottish Cup winner guaranteed group stage football. Could be worth about 5 million per season for whoever gets it. 

Edited February 21, 2022 by Buckets

[ahemps]

9 hours ago, Buckets said:

Rangers' win puts Scotland back up to 9th ahead of Russia with Zenit losing. Strange how finishing 2nd in the group and winning home and away in the playoff is worth more than getting straight into the last 16 by topping the group. Looks likely Scotland will be in the top 10 next year unless the Serbian teams can get 4 wins. 

Staying in the top 12 is all that's needed to give 3rd/Scottish Cup winner guaranteed group stage football. Could be worth about 5 million per season for whoever gets it. 

Is this true? I'm sure I read that the group winners got bonus points that meant that they were guaranteed more points for finishing 1st and getting to the last 16 than finishing 2nd and potentially winning two more games?

[ahemps]

 

Does this mean you don't get points in the knockout playoff round?????

[Ginaro]

15 minutes ago, ahemps said:

Does this mean you don't get points in the knockout playoff round?????

I was under the impression that the knockout play-off round awarded match points only to the country coefficient and not the club coefficient - this is the situation in Kassiesa's table. Unfortunately UEFA's table has not been updated since before Wednesday's games so we can't compare just now.

"However, in the knockout round play-offs after the EL group stage and the ECL group stage and before the round of 16, match results do count for the country ranking but not for the club ranking." https://kassiesa.net/uefa/calc.html

Edited February 21, 2022 by Ginaro

[ahemps]

25 minutes ago, Ginaro said:

I was under the impression that the knockout play-off round awarded match points only to the country coefficient and not the club coefficient - this is the situation in Kassiesa's table. Unfortunately UEFA's table has not been updated since before Wednesday's games so we can't compare just now.

"However, in the knockout round play-offs after the EL group stage and the ECL group stage and before the round of 16, match results do count for the country ranking but not for the club ranking." https://kassiesa.net/uefa/calc.html

Does that mean that a country's coefficient can achieve more points finishing 2nd and winning 2 playoff games than winning the group? 

[Ginaro]

2 minutes ago, ahemps said:

Does that mean that a country's coefficient can achieve more points finishing 2nd and winning 2 playoff games than winning the group? 

It would seem that way - 1st = 4 + 1, 2nd = 2 + 1 + 2 / 3 / 4 match points. 

[Ginaro]

8		Austria	9.750	6.200	5.800	6.700	10.000	38.450 +0.600	2/ 5
9		Scotland	4.000	6.750	9.750	8.500	5.900	34.900 +0.800	1/ 5
10		Russia	12.600	7.583	4.666	4.333	5.300	34.482 +0.200	1/ 5
11		Serbia	6.375	6.000	6.000	5.500	9.000	32.875 +1.000	2/ 4
12		Ukraine	8.000	5.600	7.200	6.800	4.200	31.800	5
13		Belgium	2.600	7.800	7.600	6.000	6.600	30.600	1/ 5

Update after the knockout playoffs. Top 11 is secure again as Belgium cannot catch us even if Gent win the EL. It's basically Spartak v Rangers in the EL round of 16 to see who gets 9th, though Serbia still have two teams and their points are divided by 4 not 5 so they could possibly catch up.

[Buckets]

Russians have been kicked out so looks like that's a top 10 spot guaranteed now with Spartak out. If they are still banned come the start of next season it could mean the league Champions go straight into the group stages regardless of whether this year's CL winners qualify through the league or not.