Coefficientwatch

[101]

what's better for Scotland Celtic to lose and get into the Europa league and have a better chance to get out the group or to qualify for the champions league and be in a much harder group and most likely not make it through, not meaning to be doom and gloom after it looks like Scotland will final have some decent European representation hope the dons progress tonight!

[FairWeatherFan]

36 minutes ago, Adam101 said:

what's better for Scotland Celtic to lose and get into the Europa league and have a better chance to get out the group or to qualify for the champions league and be in a much harder group and most likely not make it through, not meaning to be doom and gloom after it looks like Scotland will final have some decent European representation hope the dons progress tonight!

I would say Champions League. It would mean they add a minimum 5 points to the coefficient due to winning the playoff & bonus points. In the group stage there's always the chance of 3rd and still going on a wee run in the Europa League knockout rounds.

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/seedel2016.html

The link shows the projected seeding for the Europa League group stage. Celtic would most likely be in Pot 2 with the possibility of Pot 1. However I think most people underate the dangers of the Europa League. Right now Pot 4 is projected to go from the likes of Southampton/Hertha Berlin/PAO to lowly Dundalk.

End of the Champions League football is points on the board.

[Mordecai]

58 minutes ago, FairWeatherFan said:

I would say Champions League. It would mean they add a minimum 5 points to the coefficient due to winning the playoff & bonus points. In the group stage there's always the chance of 3rd and still going on a wee run in the Europa League knockout rounds.

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/seedel2016.html

The link shows the projected seeding for the Europa League group stage. Celtic would most likely be in Pot 2 with the possibility of Pot 1. However I think most people underate the dangers of the Europa League. Right now Pot 4 is projected to go from the likes of Southampton/Hertha Berlin/PAO to lowly Dundalk.

End of the Champions League football is points on the board.

 

I take it that if Aberdeen were to progress then they wouldn't take Maribor's seeding for the play off round?

[O_Kahn]

1 hour ago, Mordecai said:

 

I take it that if Aberdeen were to progress then they wouldn't take Maribor's seeding for the play off round?

Fraid not.  Only happens when next round is drawn before current one is concluded.

 

[lionel hutz]

RE: Seeding

with all the shocks that have been going on the CL qualifiers, Celtic could sneak their way into Pot 3 for the Champs. Group stages if 5 of the 7 seeds (that have a better Club Ranking) lose in the Play-off Round.

The Seven Seeds Ranked above Celtic:

Man City
Porto
Villarreal
Ajax
Borussia Mönchengladbach

Viktoria Plzen
Red Bull Salzburg 

 

[Mordecai]

1 hour ago, Marr1 said:

RE: Seeding

with all the shocks that have been going on the CL qualifiers, Celtic could sneak their way into Pot 3 for the Champs. Group stages if 5 of the 7 seeds (that have a better Club Ranking) lose in the Play-off Round.

The Seven Seeds Ranked above Celtic:

Man City
Porto
Villarreal
Ajax
Borussia Mönchengladbach

Viktoria Plzen
Red Bull Salzburg 

 

 

Pretty unlikely...if the planets were to align for Celtic I could still only see a maximum of 4 of those not getting through. In reality I reckon 1 or 2 may not make it. Five of the highest seven seeds getting knocked in the same round out is a big ask in any competition.

[lionel hutz]

12 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

 

Pretty unlikely...if the planets were to align for Celtic I could still only see a maximum of 4 of those not getting through. In reality I reckon 1 or 2 may not make it. Five of the highest seven seeds getting knocked in the same round out is a big ask in any competition.

Unlikely but not impossible, I forgot to mention that if the seeded non-champion loses to Roma (b*****ds) then it doesn't matter as Roma have a higher rank than Celtic

[ScoRoss]

Brondby knock out Hertha Berlin.

[The OP]

On 23 July 2016 at 14:33, La_Leyenda said:

Coefficient points collected by Scottish clubs over the last five years (including this season):-

Celtic: 49.5 (13 of these are bonus points)

Aberdeen: 9.5

St Johnstone: 5.5

Hearts: 3

Hibernian: 1

Motherwell: 0.5

Dundee Utd: 0.5

Inveeness CT: 0.5

It's awrite troops, we'll sort yeez out again.

[lionel hutz]

1 hour ago, ScoRoss said:

Brondby knock out Hertha Berlin.

And people didn't believe me!

I'm so fucking tired, so I'll post a full update tomorrow morning

[Mordecai]

I'd say we're in danger of being overtaken by Israel, particularly if Celtic don't beat Hapoel Be'er Sheva. They're 0.925 points behind us and still have 3 teams in Europe.

[lionel hutz]

Pos. -  Country - 16/17 - Total - Teams Left (Bold = CL)
13.  Croatia -  3.375 - 23.500 - 3/4 - Dinamo Zagreb,  Hajduk Split, Lokomotiva Zagreb,
14.  Greece - 0.900 - 23.000 - 3/5 - Olympiacos, PAOK, Panathinikos, 
15.  Netherlands - 0.900 - 22.863 -4/5 - PSV, Ajax, Feyenoord, AZ Alkmaar, 
16.  Romania - 0.600 - 21.650 - 2/5 - Astra, Steaua Bucarest, 
17.  Austria - 3.000 - 20.975 - 3/4 - RB Salzburg, Rapid Wien, Austria Wien, 
18.  Belarus - 2.875 - 19.750 - 1/4 - BATE, 
19.  Sweden - 2.500 - 19.475 - 1/4 -  IFK Goteburg
20.  Denmark - 3.875 - 19.375 - 4/4 - FC Copenhagen, SonderjyskE, Midtjylland, Brondby
21.  Norway - 1.375 - 18.325 - 1/4 - Rosenborg BK
22.  Poland - 1.500 - 17.375 - 1/4 - Legia Warsaw, 
23.  Scotland - 2.375 - 16.925 - 1/4 - Celtic
24.  Israel - 3.375 - 16.000 - 3/4 - Hapoel Be'er Sheva, Maccabai Tel-Aviv, Beitar (the world's most racist club) Jerusalem 
25.  Azerbaijan - 2.500 - 16.000 - 2/4 - Qarabag, Qabala

Aberdeen being pish, had kinda messed up any  chances of catching Belarus and Sweden, we're really dependent on Celtic making the group stages of the CL for Scotland to maintain our position and then catching Norway and Poland.

[Davie Bhoy]

And people didn't believe me!

I'm so fucking tired, so I'll post a full update tomorrow morning

Surprised Brondby knocked out Hertha Berlin. Hibs deserves to knock them out and but for poor officiating they would've.

Dunno if that means Hibs are better than we think or Brondby are worse.

What I do know is that we have one team left in Europe out of 4, & and 2 of the 3 who went out, deserved to progress. Seems like the usual hard luck stories for Scottish football.

[lionel hutz]

20 minutes ago, Davie Bhoy said:

 

Surprised Brondby knocked out Hertha Berlin. Hibs deserves to knock them out and but for poor officiating they would've.

Dunno if that means Hibs are better than we think or Brondby are worse.

What I do know is that we have one team left in Europe out of 4, & and 2 of the 3 who went out, deserved to progress. Seems like the usual hard luck stories for Scottish football.

 

It's not hard luck when it happens consistently.

Scottish teams can dominate games against teams like Brondby, Kairat, Maribor, Minsk but the problem is that they don't know what to do when in the lead nor to finish off a match when they're in control.

Aberdeen managed 1 goal in 180 minutes of football against Maribor, after dinking a penalty, and missing several golden opportunities at home and away. Hibs, couldn't score at home in a game where Brondby had two chances in the entire match.

Edited August 5, 2016 by Marr1

[Davie Bhoy]

It's not hard luck when it happens consistently.

Scottish teams can dominate games against teams like Brondby, Kairat, Maribor, Minsk but the problem is that they don't know what to do when in the lead nor to finish off a match when they're in control.

Aberdeen managed 1 goal in 180 minutes of football against Maribor, after dinking a penalty, and missing several golden opportunities at home and away. Hibs, couldn't score at home in a game where Brondby had two chances in the entire match.

It doesn't happen consistently though IMHO. Usually if one of our clubs go out, they deserved to...not always but prob 7-8 times out of 10. This season, Aberdeen & Hibs can feel aggrieved that big calls went against them, although I agree that they need to accept their own share of the blame for not turning their dominance into goals & taking their chances.

Celtic were kinda fortunate in the game v Astana that their players lacked the knowledge to not go throwing tackles in the box otherwise they might've been in the draw for the CL today despite us dominating the game.

[Mordecai]

I think someone mentioned it in another thread, but we probably won't get to 15th spot until we consistently have 2 teams in group stage competitions. At the moment I'd probably see us beating our coefficient for last season as acceptable. We're not far away from that at the moment - If Celtic qualify for the CL group stage then we've surpassed that target by at least 0.625 points. Ideally we'd like to at least replicate the 12/13 season (our highest current total - 4.300) in order to mitigate any loss that would occur when that no longer counts next season.

If Celtic go through to the CL group stage with 2 draws or a win and a loss (both the minimum required to qualify) then we'll be on 3.625 for the season and will need a further 0.675 points to make up for the points we'd be losing as of next season. Anything else is a bonus.

 

@Marr1 Are the points for a win/draw doubled in the group stage of CL and EL?

[lionel hutz]

37 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

I think someone mentioned it in another thread, but we probably won't get to 15th spot until we consistently have 2 teams in group stage competitions. At the moment I'd probably see us beating our coefficient for last season as acceptable. We're not far away from that at the moment - If Celtic qualify for the CL group stage then we've surpassed that target by at least 0.625 points. Ideally we'd like to at least replicate the 12/13 season (our highest current total - 4.300) in order to mitigate any loss that would occur when that no longer counts next season.

If Celtic go through to the CL group stage with 2 draws or a win and a loss (both the minimum required to qualify) then we'll be on 3.625 for the season and will need a further 0.675 points to make up for the points we'd be losing as of next season. Anything else is a bonus.

 

@Marr1 Are the points for a win/draw doubled in the group stage of CL and EL?

Yeah it's 2 points for a win and 1 point for a draw.

It's half that during the play-off and qualifying rounds

[Mordecai]

2 hours ago, Marr1 said:

Pos. -  Country - 16/17 - Total - Teams Left (Bold = CL)

21.  Norway - 1.375 - 18.325 - 1/4 - Rosenborg BK
22.  Poland - 1.500 - 17.375 - 1/4 - Legia Warsaw, 
23.  Scotland - 2.375 - 16.925 - 1/4 - Celtic
 

Aberdeen being pish, had kinda messed up any  chances of catching Belarus and Sweden, we're really dependent on Celtic making the group stages of the CL for Scotland to maintain our position and then catching Norway and Poland.

I notice that Rosenborg were drawn against Austria Vienna in the EL play off. There's a real possibility that they'll have all of their teams out of Europe before that group stages even begin.

[lionel hutz]

36 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

I notice that Rosenborg were drawn against Austria Vienna in the EL play off. There's a real possibility that they'll have all of their teams out of Europe before that group stages even begin.

If, Celtic were to win the PO match, the bonus would essentially put Scotland level with our friends in the north

[La_Leyenda]

20 hours ago, Mordecai said:

I notice that Rosenborg were drawn against Austria Vienna in the EL play off. There's a real possibility that they'll have all of their teams out of Europe before that group stages even begin.

I think Rosenborg will win that one. Austria Vienna aren't that great, needed penalties to get through the last round.

Rapid Vienna and Salzburg are the top teams in the Austrian league.

For our chances of actually getting to 15th one day, we probably want Rosenborg to win that tie anyway.