Coefficientwatch

[Ginaro]

On 30/04/2021 at 11:31, charger29 said:

The new format for the EL playoff is interesting. The standard club seeding wont be used in that round for some reason.
Instead, teams will be grouped by how they reached the PO round (direct qualifiers for PO round, through EL 3rd rd main path, through EL 3rd rd ch path, lost CL 3rd rd ch path).
The draw procedure is a bit confusing but, focussing on how this will affect the Scottish Cup winners, it seems like it will be a fair bit easier to get through the PO round now as well.
The exact numbers change a little depending on the usual title holders issue but I think most of the time there'll be 5 in 8 chance that the SC winners will play a team who qualified through the EL 3rd rd ch path. Also 1 in 8 chance of drawing the team from the EL 3rd rd main path and 2 in 8 of drawing a team who loses in the CL 3rd round ch path.
Long story short, there's a decent chance the SC winners play the champions of countires like Slovenia, Slovakia, Georgia, Hungary etc. We will also completely avoid the CW/3rd place teams from Russia, Belgium, Ukraine, Netherlands etc.

Didn't fully grasp the significance of this before, but yeah instead of the Scottish Cup winners playing all the top seeded CL dropouts, they have a good chance of playing some of the lower ranked clubs (assuming the top seeds win every time though). Avoid the top few teams here and we have a decent chance of a EL GS representative.

Priority 4
Plzen 33.500
Rapid Wien 17.000

Priority 3
Ferencvaros 13.500
Shkendija 9.000
Slovan Bratislava 7.500
Olimpija 6.750
Dinamo Tbilisi 6.500

[charger29]

Didn't fully grasp the significance of this before, but yeah instead of the Scottish Cup winners playing all the top seeded CL dropouts, they have a good chance of playing some of the lower ranked clubs (assuming the top seeds win every time though). Avoid the top few teams here and we have a decent chance of a EL GS representative.
Priority 4
Plzen 33.500
Rapid Wien 17.000
Priority 3
Ferencvaros 13.500
Shkendija 9.000
Slovan Bratislava 7.500
Olimpija 6.750
Dinamo Tbilisi 6.500

Depending upon the financial difference between reaching the EL and EC group stages you could argue it's more worthwhile to end up in the EC.
There could be fairly similar number of "big teams" in both competitions by the time the draw comes round + you could maybe finish 3rd in the group with a decent draw in the conference.

[ahemps]

3 hours ago, charger29 said:

Depending upon the financial difference between reaching the EL and EC group stages you could argue it's more worthwhile to end up in the EC.
There could be fairly similar number of "big teams" in both competitions by the time the draw comes round + you could maybe finish 3rd in the group with a decent draw in the conference.

How is the prize money going to be distributed between the 3 competitions?

I used to think it was an 80%-20% split in favour of the CL to EL. Recently I heard a reporter when moaning about distribution commenting it will still be 80% for the CL. The EL and EC will have to split the rest, he wasn't being serious but I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case.

[charger29]

How is the prize money going to be distributed between the 3 competitions?
I used to think it was an 80%-20% split in favour of the CL to EL. Recently I heard a reporter when moaning about distribution commenting it will still be 80% for the CL. The EL and EC will have to split the rest, he wasn't being serious but I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case.

I haven't saw anything tbh. Just guesswork so far. It'll all be up in the air now anyway after all the superleague shananigans. If the 12 clubs have lost all leverage then UEFA can get away with changing the figures a bit.

[ahemps]

15 hours ago, charger29 said:

I haven't saw anything tbh. Just guesswork so far. It'll all be up in the air now anyway after all the superleague shananigans. If the 12 clubs have lost all leverage then UEFA can get away with changing the figures a bit.

 

That is the hope but the change in CL plans were what the big clubs were advocating and they still went ahead. I wouldn't hold out much hope for any levelling of the playing field anytime soon.

[charger29]

Some suggestions that the Scottish Cup winner is not certain to move forward into the EL playoff round and therefore there is no guaranteed GS European football. They'd start in the 3rd round and (maybe) can only move forward into the PO round if either Chelsea or Villarreal win the CL/EL and finish in 5th or 6th domestically. It's all up in the air until UEFA confirm the re-jigged access list after the CL/EL finals.

https://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/viewtopic.php?f=12&p=466591&sid=6f8f79407728dc39a2d246c87351b6ae#p466591

[Ginaro]

6 minutes ago, charger29 said:

Some suggestions that the Scottish Cup winner is not certain to move forward into the EL playoff round and therefore there is no guaranteed GS European football. They'd start in the 3rd round and (maybe) can only move forward into the PO round if either Chelsea or Villarreal win the CL/EL and finish in 5th or 6th domestically. It's all up in the air until UEFA confirm the re-jigged access list after the CL/EL finals.

https://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/viewtopic.php?f=12&p=466591&sid=6f8f79407728dc39a2d246c87351b6ae#p466591

So this is the only scenario that Hibs/St Johnstone can get into the EL-PO? Villareal need a draw (if Betis lose) or win against Real Madrid (due to the stupid head to head rules) or Chelsea need to win the CL.

Chelsea wins CL OR Villarreal wins EL and they qualify for EL by domestic league:
empty spot in EL-GS: Bel-CW from EL-PO to EL-GS, Sco-CW from EL-Q3 to EL-PO,

[charger29]

So this is the only scenario that Hibs/St Johnstone can get into the EL-PO? Villareal need a draw (if Betis lose) or win against Real Madrid (due to the stupid head to head rules) or Chelsea need to win the CL.
Chelsea wins CL OR Villarreal wins EL and they qualify for EL by domestic league:
empty spot in EL-GS: Bel-CW from EL-PO to EL-GS, Sco-CW from EL-Q3 to EL-PO,

I think its Chelsea finish 5th or 6th and win the CL or Villarreal finish 5th or 6th and win the EL
(I might just be repeating what you've just said).

Imo, there's not enough info on how it'll work with three tournaments to predict what will happen. The only thing that seems fairly certain now is that the Scottish Cup winner will not get moved up due to the ECL-TH issue.
Kinda shit that the BBC had an article on this and now it seems to be untrue.

[Ginaro]

4 minutes ago, charger29 said:

I think its Chelsea finish 5th or 6th and win the CL or Villarreal finish 5th or 6th and win the EL
(I might just be repeating what you've just said).

Oh right, the "AND qualify for the EL via their league" applies to both teams. Chelsea are almost there, just need a point to guarantee top 6.

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

I intend going to as many Spoonburners' continental jaunts as Covid-19 allows. Good laugh. But not as good a laugh as if they don't get in.

I'm peeved that I don't know any Hibs fans who've been counting chickens and wetting themselves about the possibility of four European bevvie ups. Or even booked a midweek off for the play-off round. The overpaid, "Right On!", public sector, "Never done a day's work" types that proliferate on their most popular forum will go into meltdown if they win the Cup and get papped-out in Q3 of the Europa League by a bunch of ex-Soviets who sacrifice a goat in a pre-match ceremony.

I don't know any Killie fans who booked for Belgrade☹. Know a couple of Harland & Wolff Works XI guys who shrewdly booked cheap trips for Cyprus, pre-Niederkorn. They still went for the intended three nights. Didn't go to the game but fair fux to them. Good trip by their account.

[d31]

Oh dear Hibs fans (and StJohnstone fans too but most of the going for third this season has been about the group stage football so its a double whammy). That's a sore one.

But not to forget they still fall to ECL on losing so they still have two bites at the cherry

[The Master]

7 hours ago, Ginaro said:

Oh right, the "AND qualify for the EL via their league" applies to both teams. Chelsea are almost there, just need a point to guarantee top 6.

Chelsea need to qualify for the Europa League group stage, no more, no less (i.e. finish 5th). It’s a space in the EL group stage that needs to open up for the effects to propagate down to our Cup winner.

If Chelsea finish in the top 4 then it’s the Champions League group stage that has a space, filled by bumping CL teams along the qualifying rounds. 

[charger29]

How is the prize money going to be distributed between the 3 competitions?
I used to think it was an 80%-20% split in favour of the CL to EL. Recently I heard a reporter when moaning about distribution commenting it will still be 80% for the CL. The EL and EC will have to split the rest, he wasn't being serious but I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case.

There's no complete information on distribution yet but the figures for performance are £2.5m for reaching conference GS, £3.1m for EL GS (I think it's 3.1m +£4.3m if you enter by losing CL PO but not sure if cumulative) & £13.5m for CL GS.

More details here:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E15sRhRWYAAHOqy?format=jpg&name=medium

Top section is round you're eliminated in, Bottom are for win/draws in GS.

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

Now I've managed to stop laughing after the reaction in Leith to the Cup Final, I had a look at just how bad Scottish clubs have been in Europe of late. 

Let's be honest here. Nice though it would have been, the "Scotland #3" ball automatically going into the group stages would've been an outrageous stroke of good fortune. 

The SPFL's rise back up the coefficient list has been almost solely due to the Harland & Wolff Works XI having a string of impressive results. With all due respect to the Sheep, who've consistently played to their expected level, my memory says the other contenders to be the "Scotland #3" ball have been like "Duncan, the 3rd Murray Brother" in that Chris Forbes spoof. It's like that guy who conned Graeme Souness into believing he was George Weah's cousin and got a Premier League game for Southampton.

Since the demise of the original Harland & Wolff Works XI in 2012, Scottish clubs from outwith Glesca have won 18 ties and lost 25. That's better than I thought it would be, but it's still fairly dire. The Sheep account for 11 of those wins. Remove the Sheep - maybe by having a Spoonburner set them ablaze on a train - and it's a W7 L18 record.

I've broken the results down into five sections.

The record against clubs from the 13 countries above the SPFL in the current table is poor. 1 win from 10 attempts. The Sheep's win in Groningen in 2014 was praiseworthy, but it was hardly earthshattering. Hearts losing 2-1 to Liverpool looks the most honourable defeat. It was a respectable effort, but the Scousers were a long way from being title contenders back then. They scraped through their group, finishing level on 10 points with the might of Young Boys and Anzhi Makhachkala, were papped out by Zenit in the last-32 and finished 7th in the EPL. The Sheep's loss to Burnley was also decent form, but Burnley were knocked out by unheralded Turkish diddies in the next round. The Sheep's 5-2 loss to Sociedad and 'Well's 3-0 defeat to Levante weren't embarrassing against useful Spanish outfits, but no non-Glesca club has faced German, Italian or French opponents in the period under review. Moderate Russian, Portuguese and Turkish teams have seen off Scottish opposition quite comfortably. Moscow Dynamo put 7 past the Arabs. Hibs' loss on pens to Brondby is the closest anyone's come to beating a club from what's now a higher ranked league since the Sheep won in Holland.

In ties against clubs from the 10 leagues immediately below the SPFL - i.e. those currently ranked from #15 to #24 - we've won 5 and lost 7. Not great. The 5 wins were Hibs against Asteras Tripolis, the Sheep seeing off Rijeka and Viking, and Sainties impressively disposing of Luzern and Rosenborg. One-sided losses include 'Well's 0-5 to Panathinaikos, the Sheep allowing Rijeka revenge to the tune of 4-0, Hibs losing 0-3 to Molde and their 0-9 meltdown against Malmo.

In five efforts v. opponents now ranked between #25 and #34, we've managed one win! ☹ The Sheep edged the mighty Fola Esch 3-2, and Luxembourg is #34 on the list. Sainties lost to Dinamo Minsk and Spartak Trnava, the Sheep lost to Maribor (who hasn't?) and Caley lost to Astra Giurgiu. 

Against teams from countries ranked between #35 and #44, we're an arguably passable 6-and-2... but the Sheep account for all six wins, despatching ex-Soviets, ex-Yugoslavs and Finns with aplomb. Both losses were Sainties - to Lithuanians Trakai and on pens to Armenia's Alashkert.

Versus minnows from leagues sitting in positions #45 to #55, we only have a winning record due to Coleraine's ineptitude from 12 yards against 'Well last summer. SPFL teams have won 5 and lost 3. The losses being Hearts v. Birkakara, Killie v. Connah's Quay Hammerthrowers and 'Well v. Stjarnan. Both the Sheep & Spoonburners have tanked Runavik, Hearts comfortably beat Internet Tallinn and 'Well took care of Glentoran last year before winning that shootout against Coleraine.

Group stage would likely have been embarrassing for either Sainties or Hibs. Worse sides than either have made it to the groups in recent seasons - Dundalk last year for one - so it's not impossible. Expectations amongst residents of Pilton and Craigroyston were maybe running a tad high though.

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by FortescueFotheringhamSmyth
Typo

[10menwent2mow]

An impressive statistical analysis of our clubs performances in Europe.

The Dons losses to apollon and kairat should be lumped under expected. Maribor possibly too.

While I wish Perth saints all the best in Europe next season, they are going to have a very tough task to make the groups, as are Hibs and Aberdeen. We are going to slide down the rankings for 22/23

[tarapoa]

On 23/05/2021 at 13:21, FortescueFotheringhamSmyth said:

The Sheep's loss to Burnley was also decent form, but Burnley were knocked out by unheralded Turkish diddies in the next round.

 

Burnley actually knocked out Istanbul Basaksehir in the next round - a club who won the Turkish league in 2019/20.

They were then put out in the play-off round by Olympiacos.

 

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

Fair enough. Memory not what it was. I pay no heed to European club competitions, other than S.P.F.L. & L.o.I. sides. But the Turks are still diddies. As are Blackburn Rovers. And Leicester. And Red Bull Leipzig. And Hoffenheim. And Sampdoria. And Parma.

[Blootoon87]

Bump. Good start, it's about time Celtic started pulling their weight though.

[FairWeatherFan]

With the introduction of the Conference League, what's the new scoring for coefficient points?

[Blootoon87]

With the introduction of the Conference League, what's the new scoring for coefficient points?

Not sure about the group stages, but no change in points awarded in the qualifying rounds. Aberdeen and Hibs won, so a point each, and Celtic drew for half a point. 2.5 points won, divided by the five teams in Europe gives us 0.5 points this week.