Jump to content

Coefficientwatch


lionel hutz

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, AJF said:

Apologies if it has been linked to before, but I’ve found out a decent wee account that highlights Scotland’s coefficient goings-on pretty well.

Similar content to the @UefaCalculator account but bespoke info for Scotland.

 

Thanks. That's a great account.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another promising aspect for Scotland in the way the coefficient points work, is that next season our 16/17 score of a rather below average 4.375 will drop off. If we compare that with the nations around us, they will be losing higher amounts which should work in our favour.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, AJF said:

Another promising aspect for Scotland in the way the coefficient points work, is that next season our 16/17 score of a rather below average 4.375 will drop off. If we compare that with the nations around us, they will be losing higher amounts which should work in our favour.

That's true but next season we move to dividing our score by 5 clubs and the number of qualifying rounds will be reduced so that will make it harder to match recent seasons.

One below average season could set us back years as it will take us 5 years to wipe it from the coefficient - look at Belgium and Netherlands with their below 3.000 score which has held them back since 17/18. For 2022 they drop down to 14th and 11th.

There's now an updated spreadsheet from someone on Bert's forum, which shows next season's predicted qualifying rounds and groups using seedings and current league rankings across Europe. Rangers would be seeded into the CL GS, Celtic would drop down into the EL GS, Aberdeen would be seeded in the EL PO, Hibs and Killie would win one ECL round but go out in Q3.

cldraw.ru or https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=4FE4712A1E3EA4FA!301&ithint=file%2cxlsx&authkey=!AI0j65LlMWkMofc

Edited by Ginaro
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ginaro said:

That's true but next season we move to dividing our score by 5 clubs and the number of qualifying rounds will be reduced so that will make it harder to match recent seasons.

One below average season could set us back years as it will take us 5 years to wipe it from the coefficient - look at Belgium and Netherlands with their below 3.000 score which has held them back since 17/18. For 2022 they drop down to 14th and 11th.

There's now an updated spreadsheet from someone on Bert's forum, which shows next season's predicted qualifying rounds and groups using seedings and current league rankings across Europe. Rangers would be seeded into the CL GS, Celtic would drop down into the EL GS, Aberdeen would be seeded in the EL PO, Hibs and Killie would win one ECL round but go out in Q3.

cldraw.ru or https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=4FE4712A1E3EA4FA!301&ithint=file%2cxlsx&authkey=!AI0j65LlMWkMofc

That's a tremendous opportunity for whoever wins the league this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, G51 said:

That's a tremendous opportunity for whoever wins the league this year.

It is but then again Celtic were seeded through to the CL GS and the likes of Ferencvaros could still be there as unseeded opponents. Though you'd think with two legged ties again either club would be able to make it through.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Ginaro said:

It is but then again Celtic were seeded through to the CL GS and the likes of Ferencvaros could still be there as unseeded opponents. Though you'd think with two legged ties again either club would be able to make it through.

Absolutely, it's still tough but Scottish teams haven't had many better chances than that in recent times.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 23/10/2020 at 14:41, G51 said:

Absolutely, it's still tough but Scottish teams haven't had many better chances than that in recent times.

If Rangers were to make CL group stage would this take care of all of their financial issues if there are any of those lingering?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, AmericanFan said:

If Rangers were to make CL group stage would this take care of all of their financial issues if there are any of those lingering?

We don’t really have financial issues, outside of the same ones every club is experiencing with COVID.

If we make a loss, then that is covered by the rich fans that own the club, who make soft loans that they convert into equity to ensure the club remains debt free. 

The Club is in more or less the same position as Celtic, with one key difference. Both clubs need to sell a player for a decent fee each year OR make the Champions League group stages in order to break even / be profitable. If Celtic don’t do that, then their losses are absorbed by their cash in the bank (€20m), if Rangers don’t do that then their losses are absorbed by the shareholder loans.

What the CL group stages would allow us to do is invest some of that money into expanding the stadium and other investments, which would improve our revenue base. The gap between our revenue and Celtics is closing, but a year of CL money would likely close that gap completely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, G51 said:

We don’t really have financial issues, outside of the same ones every club is experiencing with COVID.

If we make a loss, then that is covered by the rich fans that own the club, who make soft loans that they convert into equity to ensure the club remains debt free. 

The Club is in more or less the same position as Celtic, with one key difference. Both clubs need to sell a player for a decent fee each year OR make the Champions League group stages in order to break even / be profitable. If Celtic don’t do that, then their losses are absorbed by their cash in the bank (€20m), if Rangers don’t do that then their losses are absorbed by the shareholder loans.

What the CL group stages would allow us to do is invest some of that money into expanding the stadium and other investments, which would improve our revenue base. The gap between our revenue and Celtics is closing, but a year of CL money would likely close that gap completely.

Interesting. Thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, starryfish said:

I was sure I had read that third would go straight into the Conference League but obviously not

Because in year one there will be no Europa Conference League winner the Scottish 3rd Place/Scottish Cup winner spot is due to move up to the Europa League Play-off Round.

The expectation being that they'd get knocked out and go straight into the Europa Conference League group stage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, thepundit said:

Not sure the winners of the Scottish Cup going into the Europa League whilst 3rd & 4th going into the Conference will be a good thing for the coefficient in the long run.

Ideally 3rd in the league would have went into the Europa.

We don't get to choose that man. That's up to UEFA. It used to be up to the individual national associations but any more. 

However more seasons than not it will likely be that 3rd place gets the Europa League spot. Next season they would only need to win one out of two ties to make group stage football. The year after they'd be guaranteed it (unless our coefficient placing totally collapses this season but I can't see that happening).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 28/10/2020 at 07:52, G51 said:

We don’t really have financial issues, outside of the same ones every club is experiencing with COVID.

If we make a loss, then that is covered by the rich fans that own the club, who make soft loans that they convert into equity to ensure the club remains debt free. 

The Club is in more or less the same position as Celtic, with one key difference. Both clubs need to sell a player for a decent fee each year OR make the Champions League group stages in order to break even / be profitable. If Celtic don’t do that, then their losses are absorbed by their cash in the bank (€20m), if Rangers don’t do that then their losses are absorbed by the shareholder loans.

What the CL group stages would allow us to do is invest some of that money into expanding the stadium and other investments, which would improve our revenue base. The gap between our revenue and Celtics is closing, but a year of CL money would likely close that gap completely.

The situation with Shareholder loans and issuing more and more shares cannot go on for ever. I guess anyone investing in Rangers must know they will get zero return from their investment and in time their shares are diluted to a level that also makes them worthless. 

If another club with say a much smaller fan base was to do this, old firm fans would be crying that its against financial fair play. 

The sad thing is even with the gate both Celtic and Rangers get the prices would need to be around 50% more than they are just now just to break even and as the bigger leagues get more money the gap will grow to a point that is not sustainable .

A couple of years of CL money would certainly close the gap, getting the 11th place and the guaranteed spot has to be the aim for both teams before the door is possibly closed for good if the European league comes to pass as 5 English teams would claim the "UK" TV slots and Scottish teams would be shut out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, realmadrid said:

The situation with Shareholder loans and issuing more and more shares cannot go on for ever. I guess anyone investing in Rangers must know they will get zero return from their investment and in time their shares are diluted to a level that also makes them worthless. 

If another club with say a much smaller fan base was to do this, old firm fans would be crying that its against financial fair play. 

The sad thing is even with the gate both Celtic and Rangers get the prices would need to be around 50% more than they are just now just to break even and as the bigger leagues get more money the gap will grow to a point that is not sustainable .

A couple of years of CL money would certainly close the gap, getting the 11th place and the guaranteed spot has to be the aim for both teams before the door is possibly closed for good if the European league comes to pass as 5 English teams would claim the "UK" TV slots and Scottish teams would be shut out.

The situation with shareholder loans is sustainable until we run out of shareholders willing to finance this. None of the shareholders are providing these loans expecting some kind of return - they know their shares are being devalued. However, at the moment, there appears to be plenty of fans willing to do this so it's not a problem until they say it is.

Also, if another club were to do this I doubt Rangers and Celtic fans would be screaming about financial fair play. Mostly because those rules don't apply to the SPFL. As I've said plenty of times before, I would welcome a more competitive league where every draw doesn't feel like an apocalypse.

Rangers and Celtic are never going to match teams in the CL for finance. Both clubs know this. It's not their aim.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, thepundit said:

Not sure the winners of the Scottish Cup going into the Europa League whilst 3rd & 4th going into the Conference will be a good thing for the coefficient in the long run.

Ideally 3rd in the league would have went into the Europa.

UEFA rightly value winning a trophy over finishing 3rd.

Look at the situation in England where finishing 4th is celebrated by fans, or for some teams finishing 17th is a great achievement . They actively aim to get knocked out of cups. Bournemouth , what did they achieve in 5 years in the Premier league. Did they even make a semi final in 10 attempts while a top level team?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The situation with shareholder loans is sustainable until we run out of shareholders willing to finance this. None of the shareholders are providing these loans expecting some kind of return - they know their shares are being devalued. However, at the moment, there appears to be plenty of fans willing to do this so it's not a problem until they say it is.
Also, if another club were to do this I doubt Rangers and Celtic fans would be screaming about financial fair play. Mostly because those rules don't apply to the SPFL. As I've said plenty of times before, I would welcome a more competitive league where every draw doesn't feel like an apocalypse.
Rangers and Celtic are never going to match teams in the CL for finance. Both clubs know this. It's not their aim.
Isnt this exactly the same situation as with the old club?

Rich guy(s) buy club. Plow money into club chasing success. Money runs out and club left saddled with mounting debts and owner(s) desperate to sell club to anyone.

Surely repeating the same strategy is not a good idea.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, RedLichtie86 said:

Isnt this exactly the same situation as with the old club?

Rich guy(s) buy club. Plow money into club chasing success. Money runs out and club left saddled with mounting debts and owner(s) desperate to sell club to anyone.

Surely repeating the same strategy is not a good idea.

No.

David Murray only once converted his loans into shares, in 2006 (I think).

Murray had no need to convert loans into shares, because he already had majority control over the club with something like 80% of the shares. So the loans stayed as loans and were added to the balance sheet. When the Great Recession hit, the bank effectively took over the running of Murray's holding company MIH, and wanted these loans paid back during the second Smith era. HBOS had even less need for new shares than Murray did.

The difference this time is the loans being converted into shares. This means Rangers have no debt, so such a scenario cannot take place. The other difference is instead of one majority shareholder who's vulnerable to shocks, the ownership is made up of several HNWI, spreading the cost and minimising the risk.

Money is only being plowed into the Club until it reaches the same position as Celtic - where it needs to sell a player each year or reach the CL groups to break even. Once it does this, it will be self-sustainable. Had either COVID not hit or Morelos had been sold, there likely would have been no rights issue because there would be no need for one.

There's an argument to be made that the Club currently is self sustainable and that the share issues are ultimately paying transfer fees, but realistically a club like Rangers is going to pay transfer fees to secure players. It's an investment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...