Coefficientwatch

[Ginaro]

4 minutes ago, Flybhoy said:

Interesting wee thread this explaining the ramifications, as well as the positives and negatives about the likely leap up the coefficient table for Scottish football. 

The point about losing points from the qualifiers is a good one - Celtic got 4 and Rangers 3.5 pts from the first two qualifying rounds, so that's immediately 7.5 off our current total of 37.

But on the other hand, both would be much closer to group stage football and our champions would be guaranteed to play in the Conference League group stage. If we ended up in 13th and the CL title holder had already qualified via their league, our champions would be in the UCL Play-off round with a guaranteed Europa League group stage place.

Suppose it's a nice problem to have being in the top 15, contending with an extra club and fewer qualifiers.

[HibeeJibee]

I've said before: we seem to go in cycles with the coefficient. Recently we've only had 4 entrants; they've been entering early (beating weak opposition plus harvesting points before losing to harder opposition); then a lack of screwups or some good OF campaigns boost the coefficient... strong scores and dividing by 4.

What has happened before - and no doubt will happen again in a few years - is this success eventually sows the seeds for its own demise. We get up to 5 or 6 entrants, including a couple of weaker clubs; they enter later (losing straight away v harder harder opposition plus scoring few points); and some screwups or poor OF campaigns batter the coefficient... weak scores and dividing by 5 or 6.

You can see it visually in this chart:



1990-1993     stable around 10th
1994-1997     fall 13th > 15th > 17th > 19th
1998                 26th
1999-2002     rise 21st > 15th > 16th > 12th
2003-2008     stable around 10th
2009-2012     fall 13th > 15th > 16th > 18th
2013-2018     stable around 25th
2019-2021     rise 20th > 15th > 12th?

[Ginaro]

4 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

2003-2008     stable around 10th
2009-2012     fall 13th > 15th > 16th > 18th

I think there's less chance of us having a catastrophic season like we did in 2008-09. We no longer give the Scottish Cup runners-up a place, and our champions can't just go out after one tie, they'll be in the Conference League at least.

With 5 teams we might not reach the kind of points we've achieved this season, but so long as we don't have a really bad season then we shouldn't have such a dramatic drop like before.

[FairWeatherFan]

5 hours ago, Ginaro said:

I think there's less chance of us having a catastrophic season like we did in 2008-09. We no longer give the Scottish Cup runners-up a place, and our champions can't just go out after one tie, they'll be in the Conference League at least.

With 5 teams we might not reach the kind of points we've achieved this season, but so long as we don't have a really bad season then we shouldn't have such a dramatic drop like before.

That is going to be one of the differences. Like you mention with 2008-09. Queen of the South were in as Cup runners up and Rangers were knocked out of the CL in the Q2 but didn't drop into the UEFA Cup. There's now more second chances for the top two qualifiers.

[Antony]

10 hours ago, HibeeJibee said:

I've said before: we seem to go in cycles with the coefficient. Recently we've only had 4 entrants; they've been entering early (beating weak opposition plus harvesting points before losing to harder opposition); then a lack of screwups or some good OF campaigns boost the coefficient... strong scores and dividing by 4.

What has happened before - and no doubt will happen again in a few years - is this success eventually sows the seeds for its own demise. We get up to 5 or 6 entrants, including a couple of weaker clubs; they enter later (losing straight away v harder harder opposition plus scoring few points); and some screwups or poor OF campaigns batter the coefficient... weak scores and dividing by 5 or 6.

You can see it visually in this chart:



1990-1993     stable around 10th
1994-1997     fall 13th > 15th > 17th > 19th
1998                 26th
1999-2002     rise 21st > 15th > 16th > 12th
2003-2008     stable around 10th
2009-2012     fall 13th > 15th > 16th > 18th
2013-2018     stable around 25th
2019-2021     rise 20th > 15th > 12th?

I'm not an expert but surely there are other factors that contribute to the cycles more than just having more teams or less qualifiers. The low from 2013-18 coincides with Rangers in the lower divisions. In the mid 2000s Celtic and Rangers were getting to European finals. If the graph shows the same trend for all midranking European countries then fair enough but I don't think there's any reason for us to be falling below 20th again. We are 6th in the coefficient ranking for this season alone. Maintain that sort of performance and dividing by 4 teams or 5 teams won't be enough to drop us down too far below 15th. Not denying, of course that it's harder to get as many points when you have more teams and less qualifiers but I don't think that is the sole factor or actually the main factor for the graph. Plotting another line on that graph showing our performance based on what round our teams reach would prove your point. If the line is steady, despite our points going up and down then its obviously to do with how many teams and qualifiers we have. But I imagine the line would more or less follow the points trend, and our coefficient points more or less follow with how far our teams can go. 

[charger29]

Its a shame that 12th is out of reach for the first campaign of the new format. Getting as many guaranteed group stage teams there early on in the cycle seems especially important for this format.
Will likely need 6+pts next year to compete for 12th with the likes of Ukraine. First time I've noticed that they're falling a bit into the 10-15 range. They used to have four teams in the top 50 of Europe. Now only two, with no one else in the top 100. Politics and finances have ruined a few of their European challengers.

[RedLichtie86]

Its a shame that 12th is out of reach for the first campaign of the new format. Getting as many guaranteed group stage teams there early on in the cycle seems especially important for this format.
Will likely need 6+pts next year to compete for 12th with the likes of Ukraine. First time I've noticed that they're falling a bit into the 10-15 range. They used to have four teams in the top 50 of Europe. Now only two, with no one else in the top 100. Politics and finances have ruined a few of their European challengers.

We still have next season with only 4 teams playing in Europe to earn as much points as possible before a 5th team joins in the 21/22 season.

That and with the 3 points from 5 years ago no longer used in the equation, we could challenge for 12th+

[54_and_counting]

Plus next season a really bad one for scotland falls off the 5 year count, and good ones for our rivals fall off as well

[charger29]

 

 

 

We still have next season with only 4 teams playing in Europe to earn as much points as possible before a 5th team joins in the 21/22 season.

 

That and with the 3 points from 5 years ago no longer used in the equation, we could challenge for 12th+

 

The likelyhood of long European runs for both of the old firm again next year is low imo. If I'm not mistaken Celtic will still be in q1 of CL. Think rangers might get bumped up to q2 of EL depending on what happens with the cup winner. They will be seeded better in q3 (possibly q4 too) but it'll still be difficult to do it again.

 

[Antony]

29 minutes ago, charger29 said:

The likelyhood of long European runs for both of the old firm again next year is low imo. If I'm not mistaken Celtic will still be in q1 of CL. Think rangers might get bumped up to q2 of EL depending on what happens with the cup winner. They will be seeded better in q3 (possibly q4 too) but it'll still be difficult to do it again.

Cup winners/2nd place will qualify for the second qualifying round instead of the first. That could be offset by no one getting papped out of part timers this time. 

[Distant Doonhamer]

Another somewhat unexpected win tonight.

[mozam76]

Ridiculously hypothetical I know, but how would the coefficient be affected if Celtic and Rangers met in the last 16? Would two draws be the best result? 

[d31]

I'm well up for Aberdeen dominating europe without requiring to win a game. Roll on 2021/22

[Blootoon87]

Ridiculously hypothetical I know, but how would the coefficient be affected if Celtic and Rangers met in the last 16? Would two draws be the best result? 

I think any combination of results would give us 4 points, so one point to the coefficient.

[d31]

7 minutes ago, mozam76 said:

Ridiculously hypothetical I know, but how would the coefficient be affected if Celtic and Rangers met in the last 16? Would two draws be the best result? 

Get them win through another round before that

[Ray Patterson]

8 minutes ago, mozam76 said:

Ridiculously hypothetical I know, but how would the coefficient be affected if Celtic and Rangers met in the last 16? Would two draws be the best result? 

Same points either way.

[Ray Patterson]

Good chance of Scotland finishing this season as one of the Top 6, or even possibly Top 5 Countries for this years solo coefficent.

As of now: (7.55pm 26th Feb)

1. England - 15.285pts (7 clubs remaining)
2. Spain - 15.214pts (7 clubs remaining)
3. Germany - 14.142pts (6 clubs remaining)
4. Italy - 11.785pts (5 clubs remaining)
5. Portugal - 10.100pts (3 clubs remaining)
6. Scotland - 9.750pts (2 clubs remaining)
7. Netherland - 9.000pts (2 clubs remaining)
8. France - 8.500pts (2 clubs remaining)

[Clyde01]

I think there's less chance of us having a catastrophic season like we did in 2008-09. We no longer give the Scottish Cup runners-up a place, and our champions can't just go out after one tie, they'll be in the Conference League at least.
With 5 teams we might not reach the kind of points we've achieved this season, but so long as we don't have a really bad season then we shouldn't have such a dramatic drop like before.

Let’s bear in mind though that our third place finisher from last season was dispatched by a part time league of wales side. In fact there are countless examples of our sides being embarrassed by diddies over the last decade.

[d31]

Aberdeen are certainly due a real embarrassment having done 'ok' 6 years in a row

[Ginaro]

14 minutes ago, Clyde01 said:

Let’s bear in mind though that our third place finisher from last season was dispatched by a part time league of wales side. In fact there are countless examples of our sides being embarrassed by diddies over the last decade.

Yes but there's less chance of 3rd and 4th being embarrassed than if you have 6th placed entering the Intertoto Cup or a First Division side as Scottish Cup finalist.

Plus as it stands next season both 3rd and 4th will be seeded in the first and second qualifying round so they can avoid the bigger guns if they get through past the diddies.