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lionel hutz

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A good (almost great) night for Scottish football, and for the coefficient.
It is as if you watched both games cheering on the Austrian teams to win just so you could finally be happy.

Just have to wait till next year for all Scottish teams to be knocked out then.
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16 hours ago, d31 said:

europa qr3 would be something

Depends. I've seen Aberdeen fans saying they thought starting a round earlier - getting a win under their belts and earning some ranking points - was better than exiting immediately later.

QR3 is as far as you've got - Sociedad, Almaty, Maribor and Limassol.

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Update after this week's games. Serbia can still be overtaken if Celtic get a draw, while BATE and Malmo both got wins to also qualify and close the gap behind us. Cyprus got a win to move them further ahead. Next season Switzerland, Croatia and Belarus will begin closer to us as they drop a good amount of points gained in 14/15

18 eq Cyprus         6.125 24.925 +0.500 0
19 eq Serbia         6.000 22.250                  0
20 eq Scotland         6.750 22.125                  1 UEL
21 eq Belarus         4.500 21.375 +0.500 1 UEL
22 eq Sweden         4.125 20.900 +0.500 1 UEL
23 eq Norway         5.375 20.200 +0.250 0
24 eq Kazakhstan         4.250 19.250                  0

As for where 19th gets us - if both the UCL and UEL winners already qualify for the UCL then 19th's champions enter at QR2 instead of QR1. However our coefficient this season affects 2020-21, when the new tournament and access list comes into play: https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/uefaorg/General/02/58/61/42/2586142_DOWNLOAD.pdf

There's no change for the UCL, but going higher means the EL2 teams enter at a later stage - but we'd need to get to 15th for that to happen. At which point we get a second team in the UCL, 3rd would go to the UEL QR3 but drop down to the EL2 play-off if they lose.

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  • 2 months later...
  • 2 months later...

With  Slavia Prague  going out tonight without getting a draw in either game with Chelsea the SPFL will finish the season with the 10th highest coefficient points for season 2018-19.

Progress but it needs to be 3 years of this to see a movement up the 5 year ranking tables. 

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  • 1 month later...

So looking at the seeding for this years draw's, Celtic are seeded in every draw, but face 4 qualifying rounds to make the group stages, and in the Europa league, Rangers, Aberdeen and Kilmarnock are seeded in round 1, with Rangers and Aberdeen also seeded in round 2, but all are unseeded in rounds 3 and 4.

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5 minutes ago, honestly united said:

Rangers and Aberdeen also seeded in round 2, but all are unseeded in rounds 3 and 4.

Although if they get to QR3 and beat what will be one of the top 13 seeds in QR4 (like Rangers v Maribor this season), they would take their place and play an unseeded team in QR4, giving them a better chance of qualifying.

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2 hours ago, Ginaro said:

Although if they get to QR3 and beat what will be one of the top 13 seeds in QR4 (like Rangers v Maribor this season), they would take their place and play an unseeded team in QR4, giving them a better chance of qualifying.

very much luck of the draw in round 3, about half the top seeds are also in round 2 so potential for them to be knocked out and a lesser team takes their seeding. There are a few you would want to avoid (Roma, Feyenoord, Espanyol, Wolves), but for the most part their decent teams but if your not able to beat them you dont deserve to make the group stages

image.png.37235b7dd3b61946f9dc9a869cce5055.png

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We are 5 places off getting a 2nd Champions League spot. How realistic is it we achieve that? Celtic and Rangers continuing to have good seasons in Europe ie getting to the knock-out rounds of the Europa League? Or do teams like Killie, Aberdeen etc have to start pulling out results to push us on?

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51 minutes ago, DAFC. said:

We are 5 places off getting a 2nd Champions League spot. How realistic is it we achieve that? Celtic and Rangers continuing to have good seasons in Europe ie getting to the knock-out rounds of the Europa League? Or do teams like Killie, Aberdeen etc have to start pulling out results to push us on?

Sevco have had two seasons of European football, in which both times they were seeded to go out in Qualifying Round 2 of the Europa - as they are again this time.

In their first attempt they underperformed woefully by losing to Progres of Luxembourg, but significantly overachieved last season by getting to the group stages after surviving four qualifying rounds. It will not be easy to repeat that. Despite their wage bill making them much bigger than most in these qualifiers - they still landed very lucky in getting FC Ufa of Bashkortostan in QR4, where it could have been  much tougher clubs.

Aberdeen overachieved three times by going out in QR3, when they were seeded to lose in QR2.  The last two seasons they were seeded to lose in QR3 and QR2, which they did to Apollon Limassol and Burnley.  They have done their bit, but have too often been on the wrong end of very close ties and could have got at least a round further a couple of times.

The sweeping statements about Scots clubs 'doing much better' that fans and media make, always seem to regard it as some kind of chronic underachievement to go out in the qualifers - when  in reality the level of difficulty to get to the group stages is akin to reaching the quarter-finals of the old EC, ECWC or UEFA.   In 1986, AFC were in the last 8 of the European Cup after beating the Icelandic and Swiss champions.

What does need to stop happening is absolutely disastrous results, getting papped out in QR1..............but even some of those matches can be a minefield in terms of under-rated opponents, under-cooked Scots squads in terms of fitness and numbers......and away matches played in 35 degree temperatures.

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, tarapoa said:

Sevco have had two seasons of European football, in which both times they were seeded to go out in Qualifying Round 2 of the Europa - as they are again this time.

What do you mean by "seeded to go out in"?

21 minutes ago, tarapoa said:

Aberdeen overachieved three times by going out in QR3, when they were seeded to lose in QR2.  The last two seasons they were seeded to lose in QR3 and QR2, which they did to Apollon Limassol and Burnley.  They have done their bit, but have too often been on the wrong end of very close ties and could have got at least a round further a couple of times.

The Dons should almost certainly have reached QR4 at least once with the chances they've had. Some tough draws in QR2/QR3 but some that they really should have won.

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45 minutes ago, tarapoa said:

What does need to stop happening is absolutely disastrous results, getting papped out in QR1..............but even some of those matches can be a minefield in terms of under-rated opponents, under-cooked Scots squads in terms of fitness and numbers......and away matches played in 35 degree temperatures.

 

 

 

I do agree with you, 100%. Aberdeen got an extremely difficult draw, but almost pulled it off. Hibs done very well putting out a decent Greek team, but would have expected them to do better against Molde in the following round tbh. But last season was definitely a success for Scottish clubs overall. 

What I was referring to wasn't last season, but in years gone by...

Sevco getting punted by a team that finished 4th in Luxembourg; Hearts getting beat by Birkarkara of Malta; St. Johnstone's defeat to Alashkert of Armenia...the list goes on. Even a good while back The Pars were getting pumped off teams from Iceland in Europe. I think that was a good change that runners up of the cups didn't get in to Europe and instead went on merit (although we did finish 4th that season too #woops).

 

Edited by DAFC.
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2 hours ago, DAFC. said:

We are 5 places off getting a 2nd Champions League spot. How realistic is it we achieve that? Celtic and Rangers continuing to have good seasons in Europe ie getting to the knock-out rounds of the Europa League? Or do teams like Killie, Aberdeen etc have to start pulling out results to push us on?

https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method5/crank2019.html 15th is currently occupied by Croatia on 27.375, though in recent years it's been between 25.350-29.350, meaning you need to score 5-6 points per season. Generally for that you need two teams in a group stage, or one in a group stage and others in QR4 to make up the difference.  

We got 6.750 in 18-19 with both Celtic and Rangers in the group stage, and a good contribution from Hibs. If we do the same again with two group stage teams then even without any points from Aberdeen or Kilmarnock we'd still get 5.500. Sustaining that for the next two seasons would see us reach 26.125 (add another 2 pts if we get four wins per season from 3rd/4th) so right in the mix for 15th. We have a poor 3.000 from 15-16 to come off which helps us gain points.

Of course since our teams start in QR1 there's more scope to score points for wins/draws in the easier qualifying rounds, but if we move up and begin in QR2/3 then we need to keep winning and progressing otherwise we'll go backwards again. 

49 minutes ago, TavTastic said:

What do you mean by "seeded to go out in"?

Think it means if all the games had gone to form with the seeded teams winning then Rangers would've gone out because they were unseeded.

Edited by Ginaro
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11 minutes ago, Ginaro said:

Of course since our teams start in QR1 there's more scope to score points for wins/draws in the easier qualifying rounds, but if we move up and begin in QR2/3 then we need to keep winning and progressing otherwise we'll go backwards again.

It's not calculated based on wins/draws in qualifying games any more but a base amount that you get for entering at a certain round. So if you go out in QR2 you get 1.5 points, QR3 2 points and QR4 2.5 points.

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Just now, TavTastic said:

It's not calculated based on wins/draws in qualifying games any more but a base amount that you get for entering at a certain round. So if you go out in QR2 you get 1.5 points, QR3 2 points and QR4 2.5 points.

That's only used for the club coefficient, the country coefficient is just made up of wins/draws and bonus points. https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/calc.html

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Having all 4 teams in round 1 of the qualifiers does give the opportunity of 2 coefficient points , if the draw goes to plan and the teams play to their seeding

The likelihood is we will get 6 wins and 2 daws which still gives 1.75 points.

With 3 seeded in round 2 , a target of 3 wins, 3 draws would seem reasonable giving another 1.125 points, which would give a total close to the 15-16 total before things get hard in round 3

The key to moving up is getting 2 teams in the group stages

 

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