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Coefficientwatch


lionel hutz

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Would it be better if Celtic scraped second place in the group then got pumped home and away in the knockout round, or if they finished third then had a good run, say to the Quarters, in the Europa League?


Most likely the latter scenario as there would probably be more wins involved overall. The points for winning/drawing in the CL and EL are the same as far as I'm aware.

It all depends on how many wins/draws it would take to finish 2nd though.
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So the table is currently as follows (only included those above we could reasonably catch this year, and those below that could catch us)

 

20

Cyprus

2.750

3.300

3.000

5.500

4.375

18.925

3/ 4

21

Romania

6.875

5.125

2.250

3.300

1.100

18.650

2/ 5

22

Scotland

3.250

4.000

3.000

4.375

3.000

17.625

1/ 4

23

Azerbaijan

2.500

3.625

4.375

4.250

2.875

17.625

1/ 4

24

Belarus

1.750

5.500

5.125

3.000

2.000

17.375

1/ 4

25

Bulgaria

5.625

4.250

1.000

4.250

2.125

17.250

1/ 4

26

Sweden

3.200

3.900

4.750

2.750

2.625

17.225

1/ 4

27

Norway

2.600

2.200

7.250

1.375

2.750

16.175

1/ 4

28

Kazakhstan

3.125

3.375

4.625

2.750

2.250

16.125

1/ 4

 

Cyrus still have Apoel Nicosia  (won 2-0 at home vs Slavia Prague) in the CL and AEK Larnaca (lost 3-1 away at Viktoia Plzen), and Apollon Limassol (won 3-2 at home vs Midtjylland) in the Europa League

Romania still have Steaua Bucurest in the CL (drew 0-0 away vs Sporting Lisbon) and Viitorul Constanta in the EL (lost 3-1 at home vs Red Bull Salzburg)

Azerbijian have Garabag Agdam in the CL (beat Copenhagen 1-0 at home in first leg)

Belarus have BATE Borisov (drew 1-1 at home vs FC Oleksandria) in the EL

Bulgaria have Ludogorets Razgrad in the EL (won 2-0 at hom vs Suduva)

Sweden have Osterunds in the EL (lost 3-1 away at PAOK Salonika)

Norway have Rosenberg in the EL (won 1-0 away at Ajax)

Kazakhstan have Astana in the EL

I would say we are not now going to catch Cyprus this year, but if the 2 EL teams got put out now would help for future years.

For Steau and Garabag what is the best situation for us, them getting into the CL groups and losing all 6 or losing tonight but having a decent run the in EL?

We really could do with Borisov, Razgrad and Osterunds getting papped out tomorrow

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3 hours ago, realmadrid said:

Even after the loss yesterday afternoon the bonus points for making the Champions league proper have caused a big jump in the table as it stands and we are now 7th in the this seasons points table

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method5/ccoef2018.html

It could have been so much better and its hard to get many or any points from now on but its certainly not the doom and gloom of late June/early July.

 

another 2 wins would be a decent season Celtic managed 3 draws last season so hopefully we can at lease equal that

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5 hours ago, Mordecai said:

I don't see us finishing higher than 22nd this season, which wouldn't be bad. Our cup winner would be guaranteed entry into the 2nd round of EL qualifying.

Also, if Celtic manage a draw in the group stage then we've mitigated the points we'll lose from the 13/14 season.

Depends on what happens with Romania - FCSB could drop down into the UEL tonight, and their other team is likely to be knocked out of the UEL - so it's possible to catch them if we have a good run and they have a poor run. Though saying that, Azerbaijan and others could overtake us.

It's not the 13/14 season points we're losing this year - we've lost the 12/13 points from when Celtic got to the last 16. We need Celtic to get 5 coefficient points (2 wins and a draw) to basically equal the 12/13 score. If we do that, then a similar total next year will move us further up as 13/14 wasn't a good year for us.

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Depends on what happens with Romania - FCSB could drop down into the UEL tonight, and their other team is likely to be knocked out of the UEL - so it's possible to catch them if we have a good run and they have a poor run. Though saying that, Azerbaijan and others could overtake us.
It's not the 13/14 season points we're losing this year - we've lost the 12/13 points from when Celtic got to the last 16. We need Celtic to get 5 coefficient points (2 wins and a draw) to basically equal the 12/13 score. If we do that, then a similar total next year will move us further up as 13/14 wasn't a good year for us.


Yeah, I know what we've lost...I was getting a tad impetuous and looking to next season. 5 points would be a very good return this year, but I'm not sure it would move us up to a significant position.
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What would be good is a better all round contributions from the teams qualify for Europe. Time and time again it's left to celtic and Aberdeen to rescue points for the nation. So next year whoever qualifies for Europe has to contribute better to the coefficient if that club is a "big club". And not peddle the same excuse of we need a summer league or not enough game time or whatever excuse. The point is we have professional clubs with highly paid professional players qualifying against at first part timers. Those are crucial points that need to be picked up early so they can be the foundations of our slow rise back up the coefficient table.

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Taking the (potential) European slot away from the Scottish Cup runner-up doesn't seem to have accomplished a huge amount. At least there was a certain novelty in wee teams like Gretna, QoS, and Falkirk representing Scotland for 180 minutes. It's all a bit dull and predictable now.

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13 hours ago, Doonhamer doon south said:

What would be good is a better all round contributions from the teams qualify for Europe. Time and time again it's left to celtic and Aberdeen to rescue points for the nation. So next year whoever qualifies for Europe has to contribute better to the coefficient if that club is a "big club". And not peddle the same excuse of we need a summer league or not enough game time or whatever excuse. The point is we have professional clubs with highly paid professional players qualifying against at first part timers. Those are crucial points that need to be picked up early so they can be the foundations of our slow rise back up the coefficient table.

This is where the riddies for Scottish teams against Red Imps and Luxembourg part timers comes back to bite us. Just those two qualifiers (I'm sure there's others!) would be 0.5 on to our overall coefficient and puts us a lot closer to Romania, etc. I don't mind too much when the Scottish teams get knocked out by clubs with obviously higher pedigree - but dropped coefficient points in what should be glorified friendlies does my nut in.

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This is where the riddies for Scottish teams against Red Imps and Luxembourg part timers comes back to bite us. Just those two qualifiers (I'm sure there's others!) would be 0.5 on to our overall coefficient and puts us a lot closer to Romania, etc. I don't mind too much when the Scottish teams get knocked out by clubs with obviously higher pedigree - but dropped coefficient points in what should be glorified friendlies does my nut in.

I agree. I laugh along with everyone else at rangers and celtic and others when they crash to a defeat or out all together. But once the laughter dies away the reality is another season of not gaining ground on 15th spot. Hopefully this situation will improve over next few years
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Update after all the qualifiers - Poland drop to 20th with Legia going out, Romania down to just one team like others below them.

https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method5/crank2018.html

17   Denmark (2xCL spots in 18-19)           24.200 EL
18   Cyprus           20.300 CL+EL
19   Israel           20.250  2xEL
20   Poland           20.125  
21   Romania / FCSB           18.650 EL
22   Azerbaijan / Qarabag           18.625 CL
23   Scotland / Celtic           17.625 CL
24   Belarus / BATE Borisov           17.625 EL
25   Sweden / Östersund           17.475 EL
26   Bulgaria / Ludogorets           17.375 EL
27   Norway / Rosenborg           16.425 EL
28   Kazakhstan / Astana           16.125 EL
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Three Wins for Celtic (in any competition) - would give us our best season for at least 5 years

The Best we could hope for:
- 2 wins, and a draw in the GS (3rd in Group) = 1.25pts
- 1 win and a draw in the EL R32 = 0.75pts
- 1 win in EL R16 = 0.5pts
- 1 draw in the EL QF = 0.25pts

Which would give us 2.75pts + the 3pts we already have = 5.75pts

and that would be enough to be back on course towards getting 2 CL places. (and could put us up to 18th in the coefficient)

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2 hours ago, Marr1 said:

Three Wins for Celtic (in any competition) - would give us our best season for at least 5 years

The Best we could hope for:
- 2 wins, and a draw in the GS (3rd in Group) = 1.25pts
- 1 win and a draw in the EL R32 = 0.75pts
- 1 win in EL R16 = 0.5pts
- 1 draw in the EL QF = 0.25pts

Which would give us 2.75pts + the 3pts we already have = 5.75pts

and that would be enough to be back on course towards getting 2 CL places. (and could put us up to 18th in the coefficient)

Is that taking into account that the other nations teams do poorly or do well 

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3 hours ago, Marr1 said:

Three Wins for Celtic (in any competition) - would give us our best season for at least 5 years

The Best we could hope for:
- 2 wins, and a draw in the GS (3rd in Group) = 1.25pts
- 1 win and a draw in the EL R32 = 0.75pts
- 1 win in EL R16 = 0.5pts
- 1 draw in the EL QF = 0.25pts

Which would give us 2.75pts + the 3pts we already have = 5.75pts

and that would be enough to be back on course towards getting 2 CL places. (and could put us up to 18th in the coefficient)

Would there not also be a bonus point (0.25pts to the total) if Celtic made the last 8 of the Europa league

there is no bonus for 3rd place but I am sure getting to the last 16 of the Champions league comes with 5 bonus points (1.25 to our total)

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

According to the access list on Bert's site, Celtic will need to play 4 qualifying ties next season as opposed to the 3 for this season.

No real changes to Europa League qualifying other than that there is going to be a dedicated route for the teams that get pumped out of Champions League qualifying early doors. Our cup winners will still miss a round and League runners up and 3rd will still go in at q1.

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