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Coefficientwatch


lionel hutz

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Norway who are a few places above us are in danger of losing all of there teams in the next round. While Poland who are just above us could lose a couple of teams aswell. With Celtic, Aberdeen and Hearts we could take 6+ plus (CL is 2 points for a win I think) meaning that we could overtake both of them very soon.


Just had a look and at first glance those ties can go either way definitely not overwhelming favourites or anything
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On 7/4/2016 at 16:26, RussellAnderson said:

Aberdeen have had a go at these teams (Sociedad at Pittodrie) but we're underdogs for a reason. 90% of the time the better team wins. Groningen and Rosenborg, while good teams, aren't on the level of most of the clubs that come into play in QR3 and 4, and certainly not the playoff round.

Wouldn't forget about HNK Rijeka they was a fantastic team

23 hours ago, craigiemack said:

Norway who are a few places above us are in danger of losing all of there teams in the next round. While Poland who are just above us could lose a couple of teams aswell. With Celtic, Aberdeen and Hearts we could take 6+ plus (CL is 2 points for a win I think) meaning that we could overtake both of them very soon.

FK Shkendija that put out Poland team was excellent last season. It just shows the 1-1 draw we got over there was a fantastic result and was really glad we got through 0-0 draw at Pittodrie.

 

Going with the Co-efficient - all i hope for is Celtic to get knocked out before the champions league group stages as the money they get is ridiculous - last 3 seasons have seen the quality of Celtic players getting worse and worse :)

Edited by Milners
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3 hours ago, Doonhamer doon south said:


Just had a look and at first glance those ties can go either way definitely not overwhelming favourites or anything

Could definitely go either way but with a bit of luck they will hopefully go our way! 

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Our champions have just been beaten by a team from Gibraltar. There have been a lot to choose from in recent years, but this has to be the most humiliating result in the history of Scottish clubs in Europe.

Shambolic.

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Wonder when daviebhoy will return to tell us how dreadful Aberdeen scraping a victory was



Why would I mate. I fully expect Celtic to run out comfortable winners in the return leg but I won't try and deflect from the fact that tonight was an embarrassing defeat. Absolutely disgusted by the performance tonight.
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On 07/07/2016 at 19:37, Davie Bhoy said:

Oh here we go....more failure in Europe. If Celtic lost to a club with inferior resources like Aberdeen did, it'd be carve up time by the media. I suspect this will not receive the same attention.

You can imagine my confusion tonight when this was my first unread post on the thread.

Davie's a jinx IMO.

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14 hours ago, the snudge said:

When was Scotland's coefficient at its peak? 

 

14 hours ago, Marr1 said:

Like 6th or 7th in the 1980s

1984 was Scotland high point in the coefficient I believe with ECWC Holders Aberdeen reaching the SF & Dundee Utd reaching the European Cup SF.

ETA: Suspect it would have been 1967 if there had been a coefficient in existence with Celtic winning the EC, Rangers losing the ECWC Final and Kilmarnock losing in the Fairs Cup SF.

 

Edited by sjc
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On 8 July 2016 at 22:28, Marr1 said:

Well here's the updated table

Rank - Country - 16-17-  Total - teams left
15. Romania - 0.000 - 21.050 - 4/4
16. Croatia - 0.500 - 20.625 - 4/4
17. Austria - 0.750 - 18.350 - 4/4
18. Sweden - 1.000 - 17.975 - 4/4
19. Belarus - 1.000 - 17.875 - 4/4
20. Norway - 0.750 - 17.450 - 3/4
21. Denmark - 1.000 - 16.500 - 4/4
22. Poland - 0.250 - 16.125 -  3/4
23. Scotland - 0.750 - 15.300 - 4/4
24. Azerbaijan - 0.875 - 14.375 - 4/4

We seem to be reeling in Poland and could catch them by the end of the next Round.



 

Like I've been saying, realistically it's better looking at the table the year after. Giving ourselves two years to get the necessary points, coupled with a lot of the nations in our way dropping points, you should see - even as early as this season - a rise up the table.

At the moment it is:-

13 Holland 18.549 

14 Greece 17.700

15 Croatia 16.500

16 Austria 16.350

17 Romania 14.250

18 Poland 13.750

19 Belarus 13.625

20 Denmark 13.200

21 Sweden 12.850

22 Norway 12.550

23 Kazakhstan 11.875

24 Azerbaijan 11.625

25 Bulgaria 11.500

26 Scotland 11.000

27 Liechtenstein 10.500

27 Israel 10.500

27 Serbia 10.500

The aim is 15th, that gives us two champions league spots and we'd still have 3 Europa League places.

At the moment sitting 26th, with the three behind us right up our arse, it doesn't look good.

However, there's two years to get points, and there isn't a huge gulf between us and 15th.

Also, Bulgaria who are directly above us and Kazakhstan in 24th have both already lost two teams each.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, sjc said:

 

1984 was Scotland high point in the coefficient I believe with ECWC Holders Aberdeen reaching the SF & Dundee Utd reaching the European Cup SF.

ETA: Suspect it would have been 1967 if there had been a coefficient in existence with Celtic winning the EC, Rangers losing the ECWC Final and Kilmarnock losing in the Fairs Cup SF.

 

The coefficients started in 1979, but Bert Kassies has worked out what the coefficients would have been before that by using the same system.

Therefore Scotland's coefficient history should be:-

1960: 5th

1961: 6th

1962: 5th

1963: 3rd

1964: 3rd

1965: 6th

1966: 6th

1967: 5th

1968: 5th

1969: 3rd

1970: 3rd

1971: 4th

1972: 5th

1973: 6th

1974: 6th

1975: 9th

1976: 11th

1977: 16th

1978: 15th

------coefficients officially introduced------

1979: 17th

1980: 13th

1981: 14th

1982: 14th

1983: 6th

1984: 4th

1985: 6th

1986: 7th

1987: 5th

1988: 7th

1989: 9th

1990: 10th

1991: 9th

1992: 12th

1993: 12th

1994: 13th

1995: 15th

1996: 17th

1997: 19th

1998: 26th

1999: 21st

2000: 15th

2001: 16th

2002: 12th

2003: 9th

2004: 11th

2005: 10th

2006: 11th

2007: 10th

2008: 10th

2009: 13th

2010: 16th

2011: 15th

2012: 18th

2013: 24th

2014: 23rd

2015: 23rd

2016: 25th

2017: Currently 23rd

 

So unofficially we had a few third places pre-1979, but officially our highest was at the end of the 1983/84 season.

Our lowest is 26th at the end of the 1997/98 season.

 

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Does anyone know realistically what we'd have to achieve to get near 15th? I can't imagine Celtic and one or the Europa League teams making the group stages being enough - and that is as good as we're going to get.

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1 hour ago, TheGoon said:

Does anyone know realistically what we'd have to achieve to get near 15th? I can't imagine Celtic and one or the Europa League teams making the group stages being enough - and that is as good as we're going to get.

totally depends on how the nations above us do, they could all go out in this round of tournaments and make it easier for us, or they could all make the group stages and horse us points wise

i highly doubt scotland will get near 15th again unless there is a change in the system

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2 hours ago, TheGoon said:

Does anyone know realistically what we'd have to achieve to get near 15th? I can't imagine Celtic and one or the Europa League teams making the group stages being enough - and that is as good as we're going to get.

The last three years, the country occupying 15th place has had somewhere between 25 and 30 points - which is their scores from 5 years added together. Scotland in comparison at the end of last season had 17.300.

So, we need to average at least 5 points every year, to get us to around the 25 mark and be in with a chance of being top 15.

To get 5 points this year, we could do it this way:-

Celtic win 5/6 games in qualifiers, earn 4 bonus points for making the group stage of the CL, and perhaps win 2 and draw 1 in the group. That's 14 coefficient points. 

Aberdeen and Hearts to both get to the play-off round, maybe winning at least 4 games each to get there, but maybe go out to a Hertha Berlin or a West Ham. That's 8 points.

Hibs win at home but lose away to Brondby and go out. 1 point. 

So, fairly realistic, we're not asking anyone to do something impossible.

That would give us 23 points, which is then divided by 4 (the number of teams we have in Europe) to give us our 2016/17 score of 5.75.

If Scotland scored 5.75 for the next five years in a row, we would have a score of 28.75 and would more than likely be in at least 15th.

When you think about it, it really isn't that big an ask. But last season our score was only 3.

 

To actually get to 15th by the end of this season, we would probably need to do what we did in 2007/08 when we scored 10.250. 

Celtic got to last 16 of CL.

Rangers got to UEFA Cup final.

Aberdeen got to UEFA last 32.

Dunfermline drew and lost in QR2. 

 

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I'd be astonished if Celtic made the CL, never mind winning group games. Playoffs for Hearts & Aberdeen SHOULD be realistic - however the heat in Malta and Aberdeen's tendency to shit themselves might play havoc with that one. Anything Hibs gain is a bonus, would be very surprised to see them get past Brondby (even though they finished fourth last year) 

I don't envisage us ever getting back to 07/08 or anything close to that. 

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3 hours ago, 53_and_counting said:

i highly doubt scotland will get near 15th again unless there is a change in the system

Or, we regularly get 3 to 4 clubs into the group stages of either competitions for at least 5 years consecutively.

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