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Marr1

Coefficientwatch

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Sorry HJ, I had to steal that.


Going in to the new season Scotland are in 23rd. That's two places up on last year, without kicking a ball. This is mainly down to Cyprus losing 9.5 points from Apoel's UCL run 5 years ago and Israel losing 4.6 points when Scotland only lost 3.6 points.

The table below (cut and pasted from Kassies site) shows countries 10-27. 15th place is the holy grail for Scotland as 15th upward receives 2 Champions League Berths.

The Score is calculated by the number of points clubs gain in UEL/UCL each season dived by the number of clubs each country has

Points are 2 for a win, 1 for a draw. (This is halved during qualifying)
Points are also awarded for what stage each team exits European competition:


Round Points awarded CL-EL
First qualifying round elimination 0.5-0.25
Second qualifying round elimination 1-0.5
Third qualifying round elimination  N/A– 1
Play-off elimination N/A– 1.5
Group stage participation 4-2
Win in group stage or subsequent round 2-2
Draw in group stage or subsequent round 1-1
Round of 16 participation 5–0
Quarter-finals, semi-finals, and finals participation 1-1

Simples.


 

 

post-53871-0-41053200-1465944782_thumb.p

Will update throughout season.

Edited by Marr1

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How many Europa League spots do you get ay 15th?

 

Three. Every Country (except Kosovo, San Marino, Liechtenstein and Gibraltar) gets Three spots.

However for being 25th in the Rankings:

1 Team starts in Q2, 2 teams start in Q1

For Being 15th:

1 Teams starts in Q2, 2 teams start in Q3.

 

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Kosovo has been granted 1 CL & 1 EL slot for now, like Gibraltar (who are now up to third bottom in the rankings) - but neither of their clubs got sorted with the paperwork in time.

 

Bottom two places receive 2 EL slots instead of 3 as an incentive... However as noted Kosovo and Gibraltar are currently "capped" at 1 EL slot, and of course Liechtenstein get 0 CL & 1 EL as they have no league.

 

In the long-term our aim should be to reach 15th as it provided 2 CL slots but if you look at the current point breakdowns that's a long way off. Perhaps more obtainable is 17th (or 18th in most seasons) which puts teams in EL at later rounds.

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Bottom two places receive 2 EL slots instead of 3 as an incentive... However as noted Kosovo and Gibraltar are currently "capped" at 1 EL slot, and of course Liechtenstein get 0 CL & 1 EL as they have no league.

 

Is there a reason for this? Or is it being used as a Probation condition on the new associations

 

In the long-term our aim should be to reach 15th as it provided 2 CL slots but if you look at the current point breakdowns that's a long way off. Perhaps more obtainable is 17th (or 18th in most seasons) which puts teams in EL at later rounds.

This.

If Scotland had the perfect season

Celtic Last 16 of the EL:

4 Qualifying Wins + 1 draw - 4.5pts

UCL Qualification - 4pts

1 win and 2 draws in GS - 4pts

and 1 win and a draw in EL- 3pts

Total: 15.5pts

​Aberdeen  Group Stage of EL:

5 Qualifying wins and 1 draw - 5.5pts

UEL Qualification - 2pts

1 win and 1 draw - 3pts

Total: 10.5 pts

Hearts QR3:

3 Qualifying Wins and 1 draw: 3.5pts

Hibs QR2:

1 draw: 0.5pts

Grand Total = 30pts /4 = 7.5pts

That would put Scotland on 22.05pts

Even in the unlikely scenario that I outlined, it still would only put Scotland 17 or 18th. It would take two seasons at this level to bring a second UCL berth, and another season to add an automatic berth in to the Group Stage. As much as it pains me to say it, the coefficient really is dependant on Celtic (or other league winners) getting to the Champions League group stage on a consistent basis.

Edited by Marr1

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We all said similar things last season of course and it fell to pieces.

 

 

I think it is some kind of probation. That's the only justification, AFAICS.

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Kosovo has been granted 1 CL & 1 EL slot for now, like Gibraltar (who are now up to third bottom in the rankings) - but neither of their clubs got sorted with the paperwork in time.

Bottom two places receive 2 EL slots instead of 3 as an incentive... However as noted Kosovo and Gibraltar are currently "capped" at 1 EL slot, and of course Liechtenstein get 0 CL & 1 EL as they have no league.

In the long-term our aim should be to reach 15th as it provided 2 CL slots but if you look at the current point breakdowns that's a long way off. Perhaps more obtainable is 17th (or 18th in most seasons) which puts teams in EL at later rounds.

Not always helpful of course in that starting at a later date actually gives us less chance to pick up early points.

St Johnstone losing to Alashkert (and ultimately going out) was a big blow last season. Aberdeen also getting a tough Shkendija team and drawing both games in QR1 didn't help either.

Aberdeen and Hearts getting two diddies this year and winning home and away, and Scotland going into QR2 with three teams in the Europa League and 4 coefficient points already in the bag would get us off to a good start.

I think all out teams have the potential to get to at least QR3. Teams to avoid are the Kazakhs. Three of them in there, one of which (Ordabasy) are unseeded in QR1 so presuming it's not regionalised to an extent they are a potential opponent for Hearts or Aberdeen.

In QR2 Kairat Almaty (who have strengthened with Andre Arshavin signing) are unseeded and a potential opponent for Hearts.

Edited by La_Leyenda

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The seeding pots are expected tonight I believe so Aberdeen and Hearts can narrow down their opponents ahead of the draw

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Today's Draws

CLR2
Celtic vs Floria Talinn/Lincoln FC

EL R1

Hearts vs Infonet
Aberdeen vs Fola Esch

EL R2

Hibernian vs Brondby/Valur Morughalis Reykjavik
Hearts/Infonet vs Siroki Brijeg/ Birkirkara
Aberdeen/Fola Esch vs Ventspils/Vikingur

One result of this draw is that all three Scottish sides will be unseeded in QR3, if they make it that far.

Though Aberdeen probably got the easiest draw possible for an unseeded side, all three sides will be relatively happy with the draw and it gives them all chances to progress to Round 3.
 

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Celtic play Flora Tallinn of Estonia (who should beat Lincoln of Gibraltar).

 

Aberdeen play Fola Esch of Luxembourg - runners-up last season; then Ventspils of Latvia - 3rd last season (who should beat Vikingur of Faroes).

 

Hearts play Infonet Tallinn of Estonia - 4th last season; then Siroki Brijeg of Bosnia - 4th last season (who should beat Birkirkara of Malta).

 

Hibs play Brondby of Denmark - 4th last season (who should beat Valur of Iceland).

 

 

Frankly that's very favourable. Good chance for Celtic, Aberdeen and Hearts to win both legs of their opening ties - and eminently winnable ties in QR2.

 

Tough tie for Hibs, however, they'll be second favourites against Brondby.

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In the 2017 coefficient ranking, Denmark are ranked one place above Scotland, so if Hibs could knock out Brondby that would be a big boost.

Brondby not the side they were when Ebbe Skovdahl was manager. Last season they were lucky to get through their QR2 and QR3 ties, winning 1-0 on aggregate v Beroe Stara Zagora then needing away goals to beat Omonia, before PAOK beat them comfortably in the play-off round.

Hibs can definitely beat them. Best chance for years for Scotland to have four teams in Europe in August.

Edited by La_Leyenda

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Favourable draws all round. Certainly no teams on the level of either Groningen or Rijeka for any of the Scottish sides to face.

Looks good and feeling confident for all the sides inlcuding Hibs

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Dons home games will not be but Premier Sports have picked up all the away games under McInnes

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