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Double Winning St Johnstone FC Thread


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4 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

WyScout has non-pen xG at home for each match (excluding today) as...

1.16, 0.86, 1.11, 0.56, 0.82, 2.12, 0.61, 0.46.

3 goal is about right from that, if you look at individual games? 

St Mirren game the 2.12 one. Against Motherwell the only xG chance, aside from the penalty goal, above 0.1 (10% chance of a goal) was a May backheel from 2 yards that, realistically, should be lower as a player was right behind him. Its only above 1 due to the sheer amount of shots we had.

Culminative xG can be deceiving I think. Needs context. For instance I think of the top 3 xG chances today, Livingston will have 2, Kanes goal will be 1st. We'll have the higher xG over the course of the match. Should we be expecting to win despite Livingston having more quality chances than us, because we had more shots?

 

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19 minutes ago, Munoz said:

Explain the simple stuff to Random Stats . I get it.

One thing as a St. Johnstone fan (and probably a St. Mirren fan also) is were quite familiar with the concept of getting pumped and Receiving 0 points 😂

Edited by Mr Positive, sometimes.
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Acid test for my CB ranking system passed, players get a score out of 10 based on their performances compared to CBs 16/17-20/21...

Duffy.jpg.e0d5035eebdc64678b2e7ff10d2e68df.jpg

Done GKs, CBs and STs, and Duffy is the only player so far to get a negative score.

Edited by RandomGuy.
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Think this coming week is a pretty big one for us. Two wins and we’re in a cup semi and possibly even in the top six. Two defeats and we’re suddenly far closer to the relegation battle than is comfortable and have missed a massive opportunity for a shot at a final.

I think we just need to write off yesterday’s performance and get back to the earlier system with two of Conway/MOH/Wotherspoon off a central striker. I prefer May in that role - but Kane has scored two in two. But he doesn’t play the system as well as May. Bit of a tough call. I’d be bringing Davidson back in to the centre as well if he’s ready to start.

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7 hours ago, Mr Positive, sometimes. said:

What areas are you scoring on?

% of Defensive duels won, % of aerial duels won, interceptions, forward passes played and then % of mins played/team goals conceded when on the pitch are involved but weighted down as they're not as important.

Ratings/scores still a bit wild just now as I've only got 19/20, 20/21 in it so far, but Duffys score being negative means he'll likely stay bottom regardless. Conceded 2.59 goalsp90 with him on the park...

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1 hour ago, Jamie_Beatson said:

think we just need to write off yesterday’s performance and get back to the earlier system with two of Conway/MOH/Wotherspoon off a central striker. 

Suppose it depends if Conway/MOH are fit.

Small squad kind of fucks us when we only have two real wingers. Wotherspoon left and May central should be locked in, to me, but then you've nobody to play on the right, so you end up putting Wotherspoon there, May the next best option for the left, and thats it, you've "lost" your best two attackers.

Probably why he tried two up front yesterday.

Beginning to think a wide man is key for January now. Rooney shown some form of competency at CB, and Bryson been reliable so far in CM. We can't have 5 central strikers on the books IMO. Ideally a wide man capable of playing both sides appears, but then we've got Conway/MOH so will he be allowed another winger?

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2 hours ago, Jamie_Beatson said:

Bit of a tough call. I’d be bringing Davidson back in to the centre as well if he’s ready to start.

I thought that Davidson is a stick-on for Dunfermline and St Mirren games, which is why he didn't start yesterday, just too much of a risk coming back from injury to play 3 games in 8 days. 

Thought that this group of 3 games are absolutely vital and we're off to a poor start.  Massive week for the season coming up. 

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I don’t think we can keep doing the same thing and expect a different result. Teams come to McDiarmid Park, sit in and we don’t really have an answer to it. Away from home the system works because we’re afforded more space in behind. 
 

I don’t know what the solution is but we have to try something else. Losing 3 wingers since January and signing 1 looks a really poor decision to me with hindsight. 

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17 minutes ago, Kyle said:

I don’t know what the solution is but we have to try something else. Losing 3 wingers since January and signing 1 looks a really poor decision to me with hindsight. 

Was always the rumour we wanted McLennan on loan from Aberdeen, but no idea if that was ever more than a rumour? 

Signing like that would be perfect. Plays on both flanks and can play as WB., not sure he'd still be an option.

Really interested how he approaches transfers. Does he try and sign players to fit his set up better, or does he alter his set up to fit the players he can sign?

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1 hour ago, tree house tam said:

Or does he just sign Craig, Kane and Booth.......

Would be disappointed if he's not allowed at least one player on top of that.

Melamed signing starting to look a bit odd as we go on. I'm not writing him off or anything, but going by the minutes he's played so far, he's 4th choice CF in a set up thats so far only really needed one.

Zero idea what quality is going about tbh. I'm desperate for us to sign Luke McCowan, plays either wing, left footed, pacey, loves a one-two, contract ends this Summer. Almost perfect. In other times I'd be arguing chucking a fee nearing 6 figures at Ayr, plus a sell on clause, and you'd be onto a winner, but hard to justify a fee on any player this season now tbf. Totally understand that's probably a stupid suggestion.

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Livingston and St Mirren the big winners this weekend being the only two team outwith the top 4 to get 3 points. Ourselves and Motherwell the big losers.

 The other 4 bottom 8 teams all lost to one of the top 4 so no surprises there.

Only 8 points separating the teams in 5th - 12th, could be quite cut-throat.  County look like they're struggling, but they're also capable of results on their day. Accies always look doomed then pull a few wins out of nowhere every season.  I think st Mirren are starting to look decent  (apart from their shocking performance against us) and too strong to finish in the bottom two. Livi have the battling qualities to be safe, and Utd look like they can grind out results.  I think killie and Motherwell should be too good to get dragged into it as well.

In terms of Saints, I think we're a better team than probably all of them, but our inability to get results does concern me.  A loss of confidence, injuries, covid could all see us go on a run of defeats.  We could just as easily go on a run of wins and climb the table, but I must admit that I'm hoping that the likes of County and Accies go on long losing streaks to give us that security blanket.   

 

 

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