Double Winning St Johnstone FC Thread

[Dons_1988]

He was missing chances mate. Was hoping his move would get him back amongst the goals but I just think he's finished as a goalscorer at this level. Hope I'm proven wrong as he gave nothing but 100% while he was at Aberdeen but he was definitely better served as the hard working striker who created space for his partner.

Aye, he did too much work outside the box but the idea that he never had chances is simply untrue.

I hoped it was just a confidence thing but some of his finishing was woeful at times.

[RandomGuy.]

12 minutes ago, Dons_1988 said:

 

Aye, he did too much work outside the box but the idea that he never had chances is simply untrue.

I hoped it was just a confidence thing but some of his finishing was woeful at times.

 

The average conversion rate for "unblocked shots", from with 16 yards and the width of the goalposts, in this league, is 33%.

If he was getting 4 shots in that area a season, and scoring 1, then hes an average striker at this level. 

His first season, he was getting, in terms of starting regular strikers, just about the lowest average amount of shots in the box per game, far worse than the likes of Curtis Main. His conversion rate was above average for the chances he was getting (both goals on his debut an example).

Spoiler

Horizontal line is the important one, that's how many chances they're getting from within the box. Vertical line is simply what percentage of chances they have are decent ones. 

Backs up both our points, he was getting good chances, but he was getting so few it was cancelling the quality out.

Last season he dropped even further in terms of chances, and his conversion rate dropped below average, as these things genuinely do seem to average out.

This season, we just dont know yet, but hes getting more chances, and his conversion rate should be due to start rising again.

Edited November 6, 2019 by RandomGuy.

[Dons_1988]

9 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

The average conversion rate for "unblocked shots", from with 16 yards and the width of the goalposts, in this league, is 33%.

If he was getting 4 shots in that area a season, and scoring 1, then hes an average striker at this level. 

His first season, he was getting, in terms of starting regular strikers, just about the lowest average amount of shots in the box per game, far worse than the likes of Curtis Main. His conversion rate was above average for the chances he was getting (both goals on his debut an example).

  Reveal hidden contents

Horizontal line is the important one, that's how many chances they're getting from within the box. Vertical line is simply what percentage of chances they have are decent ones. 

Backs up both our points, he was getting good chances, but he was getting so few it was cancelling the quality out.

Last season he dropped even further in terms of chances, and his conversion rate dropped below average, as these things genuinely do seem to average out.

This season, we just dont know yet, but hes getting more chances, and his conversion rate should be due to start rising again.

Not disputing your stats, and neither of us are disputing he could've been in more goalscoring positions more often.

But one or two decent chances a game you'd expect him to convert some of them. Penalties aside I don't really remember him scoring at all last season. And anecdotally, not supported by stats, there were a number of occasions where his finishing simply wasn't that of a goalscoring striker.

Again, hopefully just confidence and a goal or two may change that.

[tree house tam]

You can look as much at stats as you want but Stevie May is an upgrade on what we already had, that's good enough for me.

Whether he represents good value for money is another thing completely.

[DukDukGoose]

9 minutes ago, Dons_1988 said:

Not disputing your stats, and neither of us are disputing he could've been in more goalscoring positions more often.

But one or two decent chances a game you'd expect him to convert some of them. Penalties aside I don't really remember him scoring at all last season. And anecdotally, not supported by stats, there were a number of occasions where his finishing simply wasn't that of a goalscoring striker.

Again, hopefully just confidence and a goal or two may change that.

I think the only goal he scored from open play was when Wright gave him the ball with an open goal.

Can understand why Random is prepared to defend him to the hilt. I'd have done the same for Eoin Jess. We're obviously operating in a different class of player but he is the one player I can think of who did special things for a club, left then came back.

[DukDukGoose]

27 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

The average conversion rate for "unblocked shots", from with 16 yards and the width of the goalposts, in this league, is 33%.

If he was getting 4 shots in that area a season, and scoring 1, then hes an average striker at this level. 

His first season, he was getting, in terms of starting regular strikers, just about the lowest average amount of shots in the box per game, far worse than the likes of Curtis Main. His conversion rate was above average for the chances he was getting (both goals on his debut an example).

  Hide contents

Horizontal line is the important one, that's how many chances they're getting from within the box. Vertical line is simply what percentage of chances they have are decent ones. 

Backs up both our points, he was getting good chances, but he was getting so few it was cancelling the quality out.

Last season he dropped even further in terms of chances, and his conversion rate dropped below average, as these things genuinely do seem to average out.

This season, we just dont know yet, but hes getting more chances, and his conversion rate should be due to start rising again.

Do you have stats for Cosgrove? As a lone front man he gets himself in to better positions than May did. I thought his goal scoring would drop off without the foil but he's still scoring more than I could have anticipated.

[RandomGuy.]

10 minutes ago, Merkland Red said:

I think the only goal he scored from open play was when Wright gave him the ball with an open goal.

Can understand why Random is prepared to defend him to the hilt. I'd have done the same for Eoin Jess. We're obviously operating in a different class of player but he is the one player I can think of who did special things for a club, left then came back.

I'm trying not to defend May but I'm clearly biased. These stats are totally neutral though, and presented as they are. 

It's a stone cold fact for me to say May wasnt getting enough decent chances to score regularly at Aberdeen, and that he should score more for us if we continue, or improve, to supply him chances.

8 minutes ago, Merkland Red said:

Do you have stats for Cosgrove? As a lone front man he gets himself in to better positions than May did. I thought his goal scoring would drop off without the foil but he's still scoring more than I could have anticipated.

Above the line is players who are scoring more than the chances suggest they should be. These players should have slow spells coming up where they dip towards the average. Those below should rise. Further right you are, the better quality of chances you're getting, the further up, the more clinical you're being. 

Cosgrove deserves credit for being so clinical, IMO.

Edited November 6, 2019 by RandomGuy.

[Dons_1988]

Christian doidge [emoji1]

[coprolite]

21 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

I'm trying not to defend May but I'm clearly biased. These stats are totally neutral though, and presented as they are. 

It's a stone cold fact for me to say May wasnt getting enough decent chances to score regularly at Aberdeen, and that he should score more for us if we continue, or improve, to supply him chances.

Above the line is players who are scoring more than the chances suggest they should be. These players should have slow spells coming up where they dip towards the average. Those below should rise. Further right you are, the better quality of chances you're getting, the further up, the more clinical you're being. 

Cosgrove deserves credit for being so clinical, IMO.

That looks like it says shots, not chances. One issue May had at the Dons was not having the confidence to take a shot that was on or half on and making a pass instead.

I assume that's not captured in your graph. 

Your assumption of reversion to the mean also assumes that the mean is the same for all players which would imply that it doesn't matter who you play. 

[RandomGuy.]

12 minutes ago, coprolite said:

That looks like it says shots, not chances. One issue May had at the Dons was not having the confidence to take a shot that was on or half on and making a pass instead.

I assume that's not captured in your graph. 

Your assumption of reversion to the mean also assumes that the mean is the same for all players which would imply that it doesn't matter who you play. 

Your first point is spot on, stats like this aren't fully reflective as it doesnt acknowledge shots not taken, which could be an issue.

The average line there, I'm sure, is based on the league average. Above average strikers stay above it, below stay below it. It's not certain theyll all swarm towards it but the further right you are the more chance you have of rising/left you have of dropping.

[tree house tam]

Worth noting that 2 games that May had a couple of half chances in the opposing keepers got MOM. Motherwell and Ross County(although the County keeper let in Mattys bouncing effort).

[Jamie_B]

Worth noting that 2 games that May had a couple of half chances in the opposing keepers got MOM. Motherwell and Ross County(although the County keeper let in Mattys bouncing effort).

In the Motherwell game the keeper made a save from a May shot from about three yards out that was either brilliant or just plain lucky that he moved across just as it was hit.

As far as I’m concerned May’s movement is giving Wright and Kennedy far more room to play in, making the whole team far more dangerous. That was certainly the case against Hamilton where he was dragging defenders around with him and allowing Tanser and Kennedy to overload their full back constantly, for example.

[NYD1997]

4 hours ago, Widge said:

Thing is, Stevie May is in the box a lot of the time, it’s not like he’s drifting wide and away from play like he was at Aberdeen. On the other hand, where he used to be so dangerous was actually picking the ball up and just having a go from any old angle. He’s simply not doing that right now and when the ball does get to the box it just isn’t falling for him. Maybe that’s down to luck,l and his team mates not knowing where he’ll go yet. Hopefully, I can see him getting 6/7 goals this season which doesn’t seem all that many, but when you compare it to the league averages for strikers and Tony Watt/Chris Kane’s records last year it isn’t too bad. Throw in Callum Hendry, who’ll probably get similar from the bench and it’s an upgraded strike force.

Not sure i agree with this. Against Hearts, secondly half especially there was 4 or 5 times the ball went wide, especially on the left and May was out beside Wotherspoon instead of centrally which was causing Wright to come in instead of staying back post or beyond

[Mr Positive, sometimes.]

1 hour ago, NYD1997 said:

Not sure i agree with this. Against Hearts, secondly half especially there was 4 or 5 times the ball went wide, especially on the left and May was out beside Wotherspoon instead of centrally which was causing Wright to come in instead of staying back post or beyond

I did notice him drifting wide a couple of times in the game but I'd say he's certainly more often in the box than Kane for example. I get frustrated with Kane that when the ball arrives in the box he's never in a position to compete for the ball. 

Point I was going to make though, is in itself our striker making movement into wide areas isn't a problem. Particularly if he can drag a central defender out of position. This can open up opportunities for late runs into the box but in my opinion we don't have anyone bursting into the box from midfield getting on the end of things enough. I know Muzz tries but he also cant just vacate midfield and leave McCann on his own it there's a counter against us. 

[RandomGuy.]

So, Northern Ireland...

[Kyle]

Probably the one job left to fear in respect of losing Tommy Wright. I don't see a bigger club making a move for him now to be honest but if he's given a sniff to manage his country, I don't think there's any prospect he'll stay at Saints.

I think it could happen this time - I've felt there's been a 'last days of Rome' feel about Tommy Wright's tenure for a while.

[Valentino Bolognese]

1 minute ago, Kyle said:

Probably the one job left to fear in respect of losing Tommy Wright. I don't see a bigger club making a move for him now to be honest but if he's given a sniff to manage his country, I don't think there's any prospect he'll stay at Saints.

I think it could happen this time - I've felt there's been a 'last days of Rome' feel about Tommy Wright's tenure for a while.

My thoughts too, along with the realisation that he's not long signed a contract so the buy-out could be significant. 

I'm sure Matty won't be on the bench for much longer. 

[Widge]

Steven Robinson might just be the saviour here, given he’s mentioned he’s always wanted the job as well...

[RandomGuy.]

3 minutes ago, Widge said:

Steven Robinson might just be the saviour here, given he’s mentioned he’s always wanted the job as well...

I think his age might dictate he wants to stay at club level, and he'll maybe feel his stocks as high as it's ever been so make the most of it, as the NI job would be there for him at any point. Hes got over 10 years on TW.

Might be fitting if he turns around this awful start to the season and goes off on a sort of high. The prospect of someone else trying to drag us up the league with this defence is a bit daunting though.

[Widge]

I think his age might dictate he wants to stay at club level, and he'll maybe feel his stocks as high as it's ever been so make the most of it, as the NI job would be there for him at any point. Hes got over 10 years on TW.
Might be fitting if he turns around this awful start to the season and goes off on a sort of high. The prospect of someone else trying to drag us up the league with this defence is a bit daunting though.

Thing is, international jobs don’t come up that often. Robinson is probably ahead of Wright in the queue if O’Neill does leave (I don’t think he’ll go to Stoke). I’m 5/6/7 years time is Robinson going to be such flavour of the month, does he trust himself to improve and stay at that level. If he has a few dodgy seasons and gets sacked somewhere along the line is he likely to get offered the job?