Double Winning St Johnstone FC Thread

[RandomGuy.]

28 minutes ago, Zamora Fan said:

Genuinely surprised by how few variables they use reading that to be honest..

I think xG is probably useful for measuring how good a striker is at taking chances - but the fact it doesn’t take into account any of the following means I’m unsure it’s particularly useful when looking at whether a keeper should save a shot or not:

Perceived talent of the player taking the shot
Pitch surface
Power of the shot (surely this is crucial for judging whether a keeper should save, no?)
Positioning of defenders
Pressure on the shot from defenders
Weak foot/strong foot
Height of the shot


Etc etc - there are defo lots more. The reason xG doesn’t use any of those variables is because it’s looking at something else: how strong a shooting chance is and whether a goal is expected. But because it’s looking at that and not whether a keeper should save, it’s surely useless here as a way of judging goalkeepers?

I do also agree with the basic point that it’s a subjective science - completely fine, but compared to other statistical measurements there is a lot more perception involved. Shouldn’t be presented as an unarguable fact/stat.



 

Well yes, as far as I know its being improved constantly, but when you're looking at 400+ shots in every league, every week, then a lot of the more specific stuff is impossible to factor in until technology catches up.

[perthsaint1977]

Would not get too excited about new arrivals this window.

[Kyle]

18 minutes ago, perthsaint1977 said:

Would not get too excited about new arrivals this window.

That's fine - we are too good to go down, just like Dundee United, Partick Thistle and Dundee before us.

[tree house tam]

And hibs.

[RandomGuy.]

53 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

Okay thanks for the info.

Appreciate they put a lot of work into it, but I just feel one cutback from the edge of the 6 yard box can look like another, but it can be played at a slightly different pace, a few cm away from the player, hit a bobble, the defender might be in his line of vision etc.  I think finishing during play is too open a skill to get accurate comparisons.

If you're talking about closed skills like a penalty, a free kick, a serve in tennis etc, then comparisons are far more valid.

Obviously this is the way football is going, and to folk that are into it I'm probably taking the dinosaur stance. I also get the argument that they feel they are quantifying what folk already do, I.e. When someone says "he should have scored from there" they are basically comparing the chance to previous ones they've seen as well. 

All I can add is I've looked at strikers from 15/16 to today, and the average accuracy of xG to their actual goals scored is 95.16%.

For goalkeepers over the same period the expected goals conceded average is 0.01 lower than actual goals conceded.

As I say, I'm not here to try and persuade you it's right/wrong as the whole debate is utterly rucking tedious as neither side can ever just accept the other has a different belief, but those figures are why I put faith in it as a predictive model.

Edited January 15, 2021 by RandomGuy.

[PauloPerth]

Fair dos.

On a separate issue, not sure if Ross Sinclair is ready to be part of the first team squad for us yet?

If not, Hibs have a 22 year old Polish keeper Kevin Dabrowski who was on loan at Dumbarton for the first half of the season.  Some of the Sons fans reckon he's the real deal and will go far in the game.  He got recalled by Hibs last week as Marciano was injured. With Hibs signing the big keeper from Arsenal recently, if Marciano gets fit in the next couple of weeks they might well be looking to loan out Dabrowski again.  Would it be worth it as a relatively inexpensive punt for Saints to provide competition for Clark?

[RandomGuy.]

32 minutes ago, perthsaint1977 said:

Would not get too excited about new arrivals this window.

I mean, this is the least surprising of all the transfer news I was expecting this month.

Presumably the "rainy day fund" to tide us over incase of relegation will be saved for when we're relegated, rather than to prevent it.

[mizfit]

I mean, this is the least surprising of all the transfer news I was expecting this month.
Presumably the "rainy day fund" to tide us over incase of relegation will be saved for when we're relegated, rather than to prevent it.

At this stage I’d rather Steve Brown just admitted he doesn’t give a shit about football.

[Mr Positive, sometimes.]

Our budget next season if we go down will be chronic. 

Circa 400k season testing bill + wage bill this season probably amounts to somewhere upwards of 800k loses if not more.

Brown unlikely to take the grant either surely? Just more debt. 

Edited January 15, 2021 by Mr Positive, sometimes.

[RandomGuy.]

16 minutes ago, mizfit said:

At this stage I’d rather Steve Brown just admitted he doesn’t give a shit about football.

He pretty much did when he hired Kirsten Robertson, tbh.

12 minutes ago, Mr Positive, sometimes. said:

Our budget next season if we go down will be chronic. 

Circa 400k season testing bill + wage bill this season probably amounts to somewhere upwards of 800k loses if not more.

Brown unlikely to take the grant either surely? Just more debt. 

Don't worry, we'd just fire sale youngsters and then scrap the youth system. Soon get our money back.

[The Saintee]

[andrewh]

All I can add is I've looked at strikers from 15/16 to today, and the average accuracy of xG to their actual goals scored is 95.16%.
For goalkeepers over the same period the expected goals conceded average is 0.01 lower than actual goals conceded.
As I say, I'm not here to try and persuade you it's right/wrong as the whole debate is utterly rucking tedious as neither side can ever just accept the other has a different belief, but those figures are why I put faith in it as a predictive model.

I understand this. The point made about strength of shot, ability of player, speed of ball, etc not being taken into account is correct, yet the xG does incorporate all of these within its general scope and produces an average expected figure.
It includes them in general but to get more specific is another level of analysis altogether.
I find it interesting but I’ve worked with stats and data for decades. It definitely has its place but it’s like everything else - there’s a balance.
I enjoy your various posts here and elsewhere, keep going and never mind the mockers and doubters (genuine doubters aside).

[Mr Positive, sometimes.]

Tomorrow's selection. Do we think the manager will return to the Conway, Spoony Conway Combo behind Kane?

Personally think we've looked more threatening with the 2 proper central strikers in and around the box so can't why changing it would be the best plan but Davidson seems to keen on that setup.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Mr Positive, sometimes.

[THE FAT MAN]

1 hour ago, Mr Positive, sometimes. said:

Tomorrow's selection. Do we think the manager will return to the Conway, Spoony Conway Combo behind Kane?

Personally think we've looked more threatening with the 2 proper central strikers in and around the box so can't why changing it would be the best plan but Davidson seems to keen on that setup.

I can't see him making many changes especially front 2

Might change  slightly  but not much 

Probably needs to change right wing back and bring McCann back into middle of the park

I would like to see

Clark

Mcart  Kerr Gordon Rooney rwb Tanser lwb

Craig McCann  Wotherspoon 

Kane Melhemed 

Harsh on Booth and Davidson perhaps and CD Might prefer Davidson for battling qualities and height. 

I think Tanser is better than Booth 

And rwb has to be addressed 

Will CD risk Craig?as some seem to think he can't manage to games on the bounce close together 

Personaly I don't buy onto that as I'm sure he will want to play,same goes with Melhemed 

We will see.

 

[Mr Positive, sometimes.]

28 minutes ago, THE FAT MAN said:

I can't see him making many changes especially front 2

Might change  slightly  but not much 

Probably needs to change right wing back and bring McCann back into middle of the park

I would like to see

Clark

Mcart  Kerr Gordon Rooney rwb Tanser lwb

Craig McCann  Wotherspoon 

Kane Melhemed 

Harsh on Booth and Davidson perhaps and CD Might prefer Davidson for battling qualities and height. 

I think Tanser is better than Booth 

And rwb has to be addressed 

Will CD risk Craig?as some seem to think he can't manage to games on the bounce close together 

Personaly I don't buy onto that as I'm sure he will want to play,same goes with Melhemed 

We will see.

 

Thought Booth had played absolutely fine recently so could see why while Tanser wasn't fit he played. As he deserved to do so. Better defensively to generally but wasn't his best game against United so maybe a change there.

Tanser is better going forward, more mobile etc. 

It'll depend on how true the comments on Melamed's fitness were as to whether he'll manage 2 games in a week yet but with the 5 subs it suits perfect to saying to him to all out for 70 mins and if you're tired we'll change it. 

 

[tree house tam]

19 hours ago, perthsaint1977 said:

Would not get too excited about new arrivals this window.

Still hopeful of a decent loan coming in but the guys on loan all coming back has put a different slant on things. Surely Steve sees they aren't ready even though they eat into the playing staff budget. Folly to leave the squad the way it is in the hope that things turn around.

[RandomGuy.]

5 hours ago, tree house tam said:

the guys on loan all coming back has put a different slant on things. 

Has that happened now? Seen most other clubs recalled their League One/Two loanees.

Would be good if Ballantyne could get a taste of this level, before returning to Montrose for the rest of the season if/when it restarts at that level.

Having some fresh, eager, legs on the park definitely gives everyone a boost too, I think that was shown with Melamed during the week. Just something a bit different.

[Mr Positive, sometimes.]

A Kaylor wins the half time draw for the 25th time this season.

[tree house tam]

1 hour ago, Mr Positive, sometimes. said:

A Kaylor wins the half time draw for the 25th time this season.

Times must be hard up at McD but if it leads to a new player I'm all for fixing it.

Edited January 16, 2021 by tree house tam

[PauloPerth]

Barring injuries from today or in training through the week, our starting team for Hampden next week has to be;

                    Clark

      Kerr Gordon McCart

Rooney McCann Craig Tanser

                Wotherspoon

             Kane Melamed

 

The only one up for debate is Davidson for Craig.  I like Muzz, but I just feel Craig is our best option at protecting the defence and allowing McCann to dictate play more.

Surely can't be any changes other than that that Davidson even contemplates.