Motherwell FC - A Thread For All Seasons

[capt_oats]

1 hour ago, WellView said:

What is this radar witchcraft? 
 

People with too much time on their hands tbh. There’s a group of guys on Scottish Fitba’ Twitter who are pushing advanced stats. It’s clearly not for everyone but it’s mildly interesting as a rough gauge of performance IMO.

FWIW:

 

Edited February 14, 2018 by capt_oats

[Gianfranco]

I would have travelled down if it was 3pm Saturday or even Friday night but f**k the travelling on a Sunday when it’s on tv

[MJC]

37 minutes ago, Gianfranco said:

I would have travelled down if it was 3pm Saturday or even Friday night but f**k the travelling on a Sunday when it’s on tv

I think we'll still get a 'decent' crowd in that Hearts will bring a big travelling support as they always do, but we simply will not get the numbers we would have got for a non televised Saturday 3pm KO and that's disappointing. It won't matter a joy mind you if we progress on the day.

[WellView]

3 hours ago, capt_oats said:

People with too much time on their hands tbh. There’s a group of guys on Scottish Fitba’ Twitter who are pushing advanced stats. It’s clearly not for everyone but it’s mildly interesting as a rough gauge of performance IMO.

FWIW:

 

Looks like Moneyball type stats. 

The reason why Moneyball analysis hasn't had the same effect in football is simple.  Baseball is a team game which consists of one-v-one challenges.   There's a narrow band of outcomes.  For example, the batsman knows he will X attempts, same for the pitcher.  In football,  there is no guarantee than any player will even touch the ball. 

Another anomaly. Baseball players exist in a structured league of median quality.  That doesn't apply to football.  SPFL stats are meaningless x EPL, which are meaningless v La Liga.  There's waybtoo many variables in football. 

[Busta Nut]

I fucking hate this obsession with (shitey) stats.

 

How many times the baw went into the pokey. Only stat that really matters.

[Desp]

11 hours ago, MJC said:

I think we'll still get a 'decent' crowd in that Hearts will bring a big travelling support as they always do, but we simply will not get the numbers we would have got for a non televised Saturday 3pm KO and that's disappointing. It won't matter a joy mind you if we progress on the day.

Think the TV slot will hit the crowd a fair whack.   A Saturday 3pm kick-off and I believe we'd have been looking at around 8,500-9,500.

Now the game is on a Sunday, and on free-to-air telly, I think it'll be around 5,000-6,000. 

A shame, but like you say it won't matter if we win on the day.

Edited February 15, 2018 by Desp

[RandomGuy.]

9 hours ago, WellView said:

Looks like Moneyball type stats. 

The reason why Moneyball analysis hasn't had the same effect in football is simple.  Baseball is a team game which consists of one-v-one challenges.   There's a narrow band of outcomes.  For example, the batsman knows he will X attempts, same for the pitcher.  In football,  there is no guarantee than any player will even touch the ball. 

Another anomaly. Baseball players exist in a structured league of median quality.  That doesn't apply to football.  SPFL stats are meaningless x EPL, which are meaningless v La Liga.  There's waybtoo many variables in football. 

It's not. Stats can obviously be constructed to present players in any light you choose, but all the big clubs now have designated sections of the scouting system solely focusing on this sort of thing to focus on signings and opposition. 

It's naive to think it's pointless. 

[WellView]

25 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

It's not. Stats can obviously be constructed to present players in any light you choose, but all the big clubs now have designated sections of the scouting system solely focusing on this sort of thing to focus on signings and opposition. 

It's naive to think it's pointless. 

Where did I say it was pointless? 

I said comparing between leagues is meaningless - you may have noted I escalated the league's.  The guy with great stats in the Conference ain't exactly a contender for Real Madrid, is he? 

Read what I said, not what you think I said.   "........hasn't had the same effect.......".........one-v-one challenges......."..........structured league of median quality." 

[MJC]

10 hours ago, Desp said:

Think the TV slot will hit the crowd a fair whack.   A Saturday 3pm kick-off and I believe we'd have been looking at around 8,500-9,500.

Now the game is on a Sunday, and on free-to-air telly, I think it'll be around 5,000-6,000. 

A shame, but like you say it won't matter if we win on the day.

The only upside to this is that it'll give us an extra day to prepare following our midweek game against Aberdeen so hopefully that works in our favour.

[welldaft]

11 hours ago, Desp said:

Think the TV slot will hit the crowd a fair whack.   A Saturday 3pm kick-off and I believe we'd have been looking at around 8,500-9,500.

Now the game is on a Sunday, and on free-to-air telly, I think it'll be around 5,000-6,000. 

A shame, but like you say it won't matter if we win on the day.

The game being on BBC will defo have an adverse impact on the crowd.  Hard to say the exact impact but reckon around 1000 Well fans and 1500 jambos. Would still expect 6-7000 as it is a cup 1/4 final. Would have been 9000 if it was 3pm on Saturday  without TV. 

[capt_oats]

On 2/12/2018 at 09:42, Swello said:

I've noticed similar. I've actually been impressed with Cifcti so far, even though I'm giving him some allowances for being unfit and having had a couple of years of drifting through loans and so being short on confidence. I'm confident that he's not drifting now and has settled in well (something that we as a club have always put an emphasis on I think) and is putting in some decent workrate and is definitely linking up really well. I know the club had targets in mind and both Cifcti and Main were on our list - but the fact is that they are an almost ideal blend based on what I've seen so far - and some credit needs to go to the club for achieving that in the January window.

The only downside as fas as i can see is that we are effectively rehabilitating  a player for Celtic (or more accurately, whoever Celtic move him on to in the summer) - as I don't think he'll be fully at the required level of fitness until the start of next season. I know that we are getting a very good deal on wages for him and so can't really complain - but I'd love to see him after a Robinson pre-season as I think he would be excellent.

I know I posted the video in the Killie match thread but it didn't go unnoticed that Robinson said exactly the same thing in his presser on Thursday.

[Swello]

8 hours ago, capt_oats said:

I know I posted the video in the Killie match thread but it didn't go unnoticed that Robinson said exactly the same thing in his presser on Thursday.

He obviously lurks on here

Just in case he does: Don't play Cedric in Midfield, Don't play Cedric in Midfield, Don't.....

[capt_oats]

So...it's official. With McLeish getting the Scotland gig obviously my initial reaction is the return of a quiet rage about the supreme job he did in dismantling McLean's side and more to the point just how much money he spent in almost relegating us:

- John Hendry (£200k)
- Scott Howie (£300k)
- Shaun McSkimming (£350k)
- Andy Roddie (£150k)
- Mitchell Van Der Gaag (£400k)
- Eddie May (£100k plus Steve Kirk & Paul McGrillen)

Total: £1.5m

Fucking hell...

Edited February 16, 2018 by capt_oats

[Swello]

14 minutes ago, capt_oats said:

- Shaun McSkimming (£350k)

[Desp]

It's crazy transfer fees when you compare it to what happens nowadays, but to be fair those fees were pretty much the norm in Scotland in the late 80s to mid 90s.  The wages were low, so money that came into the club (plus generous overdrafts) was used a lot for transfer fees.  I'm pretty sure St. Mirren spent about £750k on a player around about 1990. 

Of course, with the O'Donnell money we had it was not spent wisely.  There could have been players brought in who were far better than what we got.  Ultimately, we were the ones who suffered McLeish making his early managerial mistakes.  Howie was a decent 'keeper, van der Gaag got us the £400k back and kept us in the league.

Eddie May was a strange one.  He was one of the form midfielders in the league at the time, and we spent the next few years playing him at right-back. 

Taking away van der Gaag & Howie (relative successes and got us £400k back) we spent about £800k on players who contributed very little.  Comparing to these days and the few fees we pay - we got Carson, Moult, Johnson and Bowman for about £150k.

[capt_oats]

Aye, for what it's worth I wasn't meaning that as a slight on VDG etc. He was clearly a relative success as were a few of McLeish's other signings but it was more the amount spent in relation to the decline. £1.5m spent and McLeish's league record was 2nd, 8th, 8th, 9th (with him jumping ship in Feb '98) and a win % of 30.8%.

I mean McLean spent about £150k on McKinnon I think, Coyne £125k? Lambert apparently £250k. The value for money on the park there is obvious but given the current climate where we're looking at £50k as significant investment the fact we were readily spending 6 figures seems absolutely wild.

[Swello]

The issue with McLeish was that he neither had his predecessor's eye for a player- or his ability to get said player for a pittance. The way McLean built us up from our last promotion in 1985 until he left was painstaking and really well thought out over the best part of a decade - the way McLeish dismantled it so quickly was fucking criminal.  All while never getting a hint of criticism in the press or elsewhere outside the Motherwell support.

All the talk of SO earlier - I think the equivalent back then was an email list - I'm sure there was a McLeish Out!! thread

[Desp]

47 minutes ago, Swello said:

The issue with McLeish was that he neither had his predecessor's eye for a player- or his ability to get said player for a pittance. The way McLean built us up from our last promotion in 1985 until he left was painstaking and really well thought out over the best part of a decade - the way McLeish dismantled it so quickly was fucking criminal.  All while never getting a hint of criticism in the press or elsewhere outside the Motherwell support.

All the talk of SO earlier - I think the equivalent back then was an email list - I'm sure there was a McLeish Out!! thread

To play devil's advocate here - did he dismantle it?  Now, I was born in '86 so I was still a kid at this point, but I remember in McLean's final season, the team was something along the lines of   Dijkstra, Shannon, Martin, Krivokopic, McCart, McKinnon, Lambert, O'Donnell, Davies, Coyne and Arnott.  There or thereabouts to be fair.

Now, Dijkstra went to the English Premiership - can't really blame the manager for that. 

Lambert & McKinnon would later go in and become high profile Bosman signings for Dortmund & FC Twente (again, I believe both were wanted at Fir Park but you can't begrudge them those moves)

O'Donnell - went to his boyhood heroes for a fee which remains our record sale to this day.

The others all stayed, I think, for the majority of his reign.  Mio was a fair age so moved on, as was Davies & Shannon I think was moved out for May (not sure on that one, happy to be corrected).  So for me I think it's harsh on McLeish to say he dismantled the side.

Did he make a good job of replacing them?  I think we all know the answer to that and it's absolutely fair game to berate McLeish for that. I can understand why he remains a very unpopular figure with the Motherwell fans.

[Busta Nut]

May was for Kirk and McGrillen and cash. Shaun McSkimming , we paid a fortune for. Eddie May was a decent midfielder at Falkirk, He went to right back for some reason with us. He signed Andy Roddie ( was he not his cousin or nephew or something), Stevie Woods, Kevin Christie & John fucking Hendry. He also tried to play for us a bit. I remember him being utter shite too. I was only 11 though.

 

I think he had the basis of a decent team in his squads but fucked it.

 

In the bin 90's Motherwell manager McLeish

[Swello]

20 minutes ago, Desp said:

To play devil's advocate here - did he dismantle it?  Now, I was born in '86 so I was still a kid at this point, but I remember in McLean's final season, the team was something along the lines of   Dijkstra, Shannon, Martin, Krivokopic, McCart, McKinnon, Lambert, O'Donnell, Davies, Coyne and Arnott.  There or thereabouts to be fair.

Now, Dijkstra went to the English Premiership - can't really blame the manager for that. 

Lambert & McKinnon would later go in and become high profile Bosman signings for Dortmund & FC Twente (again, I believe both were wanted at Fir Park but you can't begrudge them those moves)

O'Donnell - went to his boyhood heroes for a fee which remains our record sale to this day.

The others all stayed, I think, for the majority of his reign.  Mio was a fair age so moved on, as was Davies & Shannon I think was moved out for May (not sure on that one, happy to be corrected).  So for me I think it's harsh on McLeish to say he dismantled the side.

Did he make a good job of replacing them?  I think we all know the answer to that and it's absolutely fair game to berate McLeish for that. I can understand why he remains a very unpopular figure with the Motherwell fans.

Not Devil's advocate at all - good points - so let me clarify what I meant. McLean painstakingly built a team (multiple teams actually) - that steadily built us up from the state we were in post-promotion in 1985-86 (coincidentally, my first season watching us) - a first division team just trying to stay up - to the point where he left where we were genuinely one of the best sides in the country. 

McLeish took over and had access to funding (that McLean never had) not just to tread water - but to build further and "kick-on" to use some player-speak. He lost some players as every manager does but his lack of experience and poor performance in the transfer market meant that he effectively killed the good work done by McLean and in doing so,  threw away a real opportunity. A manager lives and dies by his signings and you just need to look at what McLeish inflicted on us - Mario Dorner! Franz Resch! John Henry! Andy Roddie! - he fucked it.

Most managers would have been pilloried - but he was fucking teflon during his time at Fir Park.