Motherwell FC - A Thread For All Seasons

[welldaft]

As long as we finish above 11th and St Mirren I will be quite happy. Finishing below our ex Manager and B team would be a red neck. They got a great result today but I have never seen such an insipid Celtic team and sadly don’t expect to see it again and certainly not in our 3 games against them before the World Cup break…….sadly.

Edit to add. St Mirren had 4 shots and two on target = 2 goals. We had 25 shots and only 5 on target = 0 goals. Sometimes it is not your day. Also St Mirren had 20% possession . 

I enjoyed the football on show today and against Dundee United but by Christ it is infuriating. I genuinely cannot recall us creating so many chances over two games against decent opposition and gaining only 1 point. I kinda knew after McGinn missed a sitter and perhaps even before that we were not going to score. Every shot is wide or high or straight at the keeper. I sat there thinking we must be due a break but the ball never fell for us much if at all. 

Still livid with McGinn chance. A professional footballer should not miss like that. I think he has been an excellent addition fwiw but clearly goals are not going to be a thing. Van Veen showing us why again he is with Motherwell and played with the likes of Scunthorpe. I like the guy. I do but he has had about 8 chances last two games and no goals. 

Be interesting to see how we play v Celtic at Parkhead. Normally we would defend in depth and try and get out with out dignity in tact. We play that open and offensive then a big defeat may be on the cards

 

Edited September 18, 2022 by welldaft

[ropy]

4 hours ago, crazylegsjoe_mfc said:

I’m as unagitated (is that a word) as I’ve ever been after a 0-3.

Plenty of positives and everything that could have gone against us did. Defensive errors are bound to happen now and again and that’s the first Lamie has made in a while. Hearts would’ve struggled to get the lead without a mistake.

One downside to today for me was Barry Maguire. Really want to like the guy and give him extra leeway being an academy player etc, but we really do drop off in quality when he plays, to the point he impedes us. Cornelius got on the ball far better when he came on.

Wonder if Shields and Morris’ omission from the squad means either are going on a championship loan.

Never even noticed that Shields wasn’t there.  Surely Morris is injured or he would have been at the reserve game.

[RostokMcSpoons]

12 hours ago, welldaft said:

a big defeat may be on the cards

Unfortunately a big defeat is always on the cards against that lot.  

I'd rather go down with a bit of footballing intent, than a 'park the bus and pile up the kit bags too' approach.

Until it threatens to go into double figures anyway 🫣

[Dosser2014]

37 minutes ago, RostokMcSpoons said:

Unfortunately a big defeat is always on the cards against that lot.  

I'd rather go down with a bit of footballing intent, than a 'park the bus and pile up the kit bags too' approach.

Until it threatens to go into double figures anyway 🫣

The coming month will really test our defence, but hopefully we can get through it relatively unscathed. 

[capt_oats]

Lifted these from FotMob, if nothing else it's an interesting overview of how Hammellball is evolving - for better or worse.

When he got the job I think one of the biggest questions around him was whether he could effect change on the squad and the output from them.

Most recent first:

[Swami]

I reckon if Alexander was still in charge we’d probably have roughly the same number of points but we’d be more raging after the wins than anyone was yesterday. And we’d be playing to about 17 folk. 

[Archie McSquackle]

These xG stats are a pile of pish, the St. Johnstone game being the best example. Both teams with an xG of less than 1 - actual scoreline 2-1.

[CoF]

29 minutes ago, Archie McSquackle said:

These xG stats are a pile of pish, the St. Johnstone game being the best example. Both teams with an xG of less than 1 - actual scoreline 2-1.

I used to think the same, but that’s because I didn’t understand xG. I might embarrass myself trying to explain this as I still only sort of get most of it, so others can probably offer a better explanation, but here it’s about the quality of chance.

A very very basic explanation is that based on analysis of thousands of games, if the ball falls to a non-specific player in a certain area on the pitch there is an expectation of goals X amount of times. So the ball falling in the 6 yard box to an empty goal will obviously be a higher expected goal than a player skelping a shot from forty yards through a crowded penalty box. They add in other variables which influence the expectation of goals like defender positions, ball height, which foot (or body part) the ball falls to.

So, looking at our xG vs Dundee United - the ball / players ended up in places where on average a team would have scored 3.28 goals. Basically, we were created loads of really good clear chances but we didn’t take them.  
 

If a team has a very low xG scores a lot of goals, it suggests they’re not making many clear chances but are scoring a lot harder chances. That usually suggests a reliance on one or two really talented players who can make the most of tricky chances that come their way.

Last year, we had a really poor expected goals against. We were gifting teams a lot of good chances and in the first half of the season they weren’t capitalising. Liam Kelly was probably part of the reason why. The second half of the season that xGa started to turn into a reality and we started letting in the goals we were expected to lose in the first half of the season.  

[Busta Nut]

I'd just like to say, Louis Moult is done. He runs like me, feart in case his legs snap.

[capt_oats]

34 minutes ago, CoF said:

I used to think the same, but that’s because I didn’t understand xG. I might embarrass myself trying to explain this as I still only sort of get most of it, so others can probably offer a better explanation, but here it’s about the quality of chance.

A very very basic explanation is that based on analysis of thousands of games, if the ball falls to a non-specific player in a certain area on the pitch there is an expectation of goals X amount of times. So the ball falling in the 6 yard box to an empty goal will obviously be a higher expected goal than a player skelping a shot from forty yards through a crowded penalty box. They add in other variables which influence the expectation of goals like defender positions, ball height, which foot (or body part) the ball falls to.

So, looking at our xG vs Dundee United - the ball / players ended up in places where on average a team would have scored 3.28 goals. Basically, we were created loads of really good clear chances but we didn’t take them.  

If a team has a very low xG scores a lot of goals, it suggests they’re not making many clear chances but are scoring a lot harder chances. That usually suggests a reliance on one or two really talented players who can make the most of tricky chances that come their way.

Last year, we had a really poor expected goals against. We were gifting teams a lot of good chances and in the first half of the season they weren’t capitalising. Liam Kelly was probably part of the reason why. The second half of the season that xGa started to turn into a reality and we started letting in the goals we were expected to lose in the first half of the season.  

Aye, to me that's pretty much it in a nutshell.

If you're using it to look at the quality/chances we're creating (or not) then it's instructive.

Trying to infer anything else from it? Less so...

[Kapowzer]

On 18/09/2022 at 20:05, Allroy for Prez said:

Our points total doesn’t reflect a lot of the good play we’ve produced so far but we’re chucking in far too many easy goals all over the place sadly as such we’re going to need to get something from Ross County and Hibs to atone for the glut of chances we’ve been unable to convert the past 2 games. 
 

I'd say our points total is pretty much where we deserve to be. 7 games played, 10 points in the bag. Looking back you can't really say we should have a bigger points tally, we were poor at St Mirren and got the win, poor in Kilmarnock and rightly got punished, flat vs St Johnstone and wasteful vs Dundee United and Hearts.

 

St Mirren (A) 3 points - Bit of a smash and grab, after Sligo and Hammy as caretaker plus the backs to the wall stuff, few would have argued with a point or a loss and 0.

St Johnstone (H) 0 points - A draw would have been fair in this game, so 1.

Aberdeen (A) 3 points - No arguments with the result, it could have been a cricket score. 3 points.

Livingston (H) 3 points - Slugfest, dodgy penalty but they offered nothing. A draw or what we ended up with would be fair. If there was VAR .... 1, 3 at a bit of a push.

Kilmarnock (A) 0 points - Should have capitalised on our early goal against the run of play and their record. Can't grumble with 0 at the final whistle.

Dundee United (H) 1 point - Major missed opportunity. Should have been a definite 3 for us.

Hearts (H) 0 points - Scoreline doesn't reflect the manner of the loss but on the day they did the basics better. 0 points

 

Even erring on the positive side here, you're looking at 11 points which is one better than where we are, take the Livi penalty out the equation and we're on 9. 10 points seems kinda fair.

The issue is we have as yet only played 1 of the 3 teams which have demonstrated consistency in the league over the past 2 seasons. As far this cycle goes, many write off the OF games with hopes that our GD isn't hammered with any result is a major bonus. Kilmarnock, meeting up with 1 point in the bag have since recorded 2 losses.

[18May1991]

It’s almost as if we didn’t sort our defence out during the summer….. thats on both managers, although Hammell perhaps to a lesser extent.

[capt_oats]

2 hours ago, 18May1991 said:

It’s almost as if we didn’t sort our defence out during the summer….. thats on both managers, although Hammell perhaps to a lesser extent.

I mean, you can question the motivating factors but we signed 2 full backs and Hammell also released Ojala. Granted we signed McGinn because Alexander had a fall out with SOD and Penney (who looks good) was signed because both McGinley and Carroll are broken but it's fair to say that there's been some work on the defence.

Tbh, watching the Bathgate Maldini nod the ball straight to Shankland's boot on Saturday reminded me of the fact that we cut Ojala loose on deadline day and kind of raises the question of whether or not one of the players Hammell was talking about us having tried (but failed) to get over the line was another centre back.

Sidebar - a rare treat to hear @thisGRAEME hosting the Monday Terrace pod again. Smashing.

Edited September 20, 2022 by capt_oats

[Dosser2014]

2 hours ago, 18May1991 said:

It’s almost as if we didn’t sort our defence out during the summer….. thats on both managers, although Hammell perhaps to a lesser extent.

Aye, we looked more than a bit shaky on Sunday, especially in the first half. The midfield, in its defensive mode, looked fragile and a bit disorganised. Slattery's energy and bite was a big miss. Defensively, the 2 full backs didn't have the best of afternoons. Centre backs?

[capt_oats]

Also, on the point about the defence (and meant as a statement of fact rather than a for or against argument) we've played 8 games so far this season under Hammell and kept clean sheets in 4 of them.

Granted after every game we've conceded in Hammell's came out post-match saying that the goals we've lost have been "poor" but still...50% clean sheet rate is something I guess and dare I say is probably better than many would have expected prior to kick off against St Mirren having just shipped 3 over 2 legs against Sligo.

[Swello]

10 minutes ago, capt_oats said:

Also, on the point about the defence (and meant as a statement of fact rather than a for or against argument) we've played 8 games so far this season under Hammell and kept clean sheets in 4 of them.

Granted after every game we've conceded in Hammell's came out post-match saying that the goals we've lost have been "poor" but still...50% clean sheet rate is something I guess and dare I say is probably better than many would have expected prior to kick off against St Mirren having just shipped 3 over 2 legs against Sligo.

I think the actual defenders in the team have been fine for this stage of the season. Penney is a proper upgrade, McGinn is at least as effective as SOD and (Saturday's flub from Lamie aside) both central defenders have been ok (Sol seems to be getting a bit of confidence back at least).

I think we are a much more open team now, look pretty susceptible on the break and in general the defence is getting less protection, so having some clean sheets is pretty good. 

We largely kept Utd hemmed in a couple of weeks back and as a result were under very little pressure - but we couldn't do that to Hearts and they were totally clinical when chances came. Don't envy Hammy in working out how to play at Celtic park as if we are as open as we have been, we'll probably get slaughtered. 

 

[Neil86]

54 minutes ago, Dosser2014 said:

Aye, we looked more than a bit shaky on Sunday, especially in the first half. The midfield, in its defensive mode, looked fragile and a bit disorganised. Slattery's energy and bite was a big miss. Defensively, the 2 full backs didn't have the best of afternoons. Centre backs?

Definitely missed Slattery, the drop off between him and Maguire is massive, even the difference when Cornelius came on was night and day. on the full backs, interesting you say that, Robert Borthwick, from the afore mentioned terrace podcast, doing Hearts Commentary said Penney was the most impressive Well played on the park. It was right after he smacked the bar and pulled a great save out of Gordon right enough.

[Dosser1886]

39 minutes ago, Neil86 said:

Definitely missed Slattery, the drop off between him and Maguire is massive, even the difference when Cornelius came on was night and day. on the full backs, interesting you say that, Robert Borthwick, from the afore mentioned terrace podcast, doing Hearts Commentary said Penney was the most impressive Well played on the park. It was right after he smacked the bar and pulled a great save out of Gordon right enough.

Penney looked great when pushed further up the park, his crossing and shooting is excellent, bit suspect at defending though which is a probelm when you are meant to be a left back.

[capt_oats]

I think the conversations about missing Slattery or the positives of Penney in an attacking sense are important in so much as it speaks to the point about us being an extreme work in progress where we're now finding out which players in the group are suited to how Hammell's wanting us to play.

Basically players who perhaps fitted Alexander's more rigid approach will be asked to operate differently going forward.

Anyway, this is mildly interesting - in a Hammellball vs Murderball sense.

According to WhoScored.com we are:

• Top 5 for possession
• Top for Aerial duels won
• 4th for shots per game
• KVV is top for shots per game

Edited September 20, 2022 by capt_oats

[YassinMoutaouakil]

I wasn't at either of the United or Hearts games (and I'm not going to watch the highlights of a 3-0 loss to Hearts regardless of how well we apparently played) but is there an argument that KVV isn't really someone we can rely on as a lone striker? It's harsh as f**k given he's our top scorer by miles this season but I wonder if his skillset might be better suited to fashioning chances for someone who's a bit more likely to score the "easy" chances -like Moult. 

Equally you could say that Tierney, Spittal and Efford etc really need to step up a bit as well.