Jump to content

Motherwell FC - A Thread For All Seasons


Recommended Posts

Is there a good primer in how xG is calculated? I'm interested in how all the variables are accounted for, like shite goalies, time of the game, whether they're under pressure from a defender, etc. Is there a next generation of stats on the way?

I'm a big baseball fan, and love the stats there, but those make sense to me since there are less variables, and each team plays 160+ times.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Jim McLean's Ghost said:

Because I don't think you understand what a prediction is. Me telling you last week's lottery numbers isn't much of a prediction. To predict something you need to use something you have to tell you about something that hasn't happened.

So Xg got the bottom 2 teams wrong. So even when it has all the data it doesn't correlate to reality.

It predicted 5/6 of the top half and bottom half in February. How is that not it predicting a future result using past results?

It took the xG figures from the past ~20 games to predict how the table would look after another ~18?

It'll never, ever, predict every single position correctly and I don't think anyone's ever claimed it has? 

I understand you won't change your mind on this, but I'll tell you for a fact half the clubs in the division including your own have predictive systems based around it to gauge how things are going/will go, and clubs aren't shy in ignoring things if they think it's a waste of time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On the xG thing the only time I've found it useful is as a retrospective stat after a game when it gives a bit of insight into whether one of the teams overperformed relative to the chances that they had on the day , ie if a game finished 2-1 and the xG was say 1.2-1.4 then the winning team have produced a better quality of finishing and the losers have squandered chances . Perhaps it gives a bit more of an insightful review of the game rather than just having to rely on shots on and off target , but beyond that I wouldn't give it a second glance.  As for predicting future results I'm in the 'yer da' camp on this one and am sure there's many other things that could show some kind of trend if extrapolated over a large enough period and calculated in just the right way.  

More importantly tho, Saturday's game was f*king brilliant. Tony Watt's shitehousery in particular deserves special praise.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Moving away from the XG chat, has there been a bigger turnaround from a Motherwell player in recent years than Rickie Lamie?

This time last year I wanted rid altogether. Now I have no worries over him stepping in when required, he’s hardly put a foot wrong this season and was my motm again yesterday. 

That’s now a goal and 2 assists in his last 4 games as well. 

Edited by Casagolda
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JamesP_81 said:

On the xG thing the only time I've found it useful is as a retrospective stat after a game when it gives a bit of insight into whether one of the teams overperformed relative to the chances that they had on the day , ie if a game finished 2-1 and the xG was say 1.2-1.4 then the winning team have produced a better quality of finishing and the losers have squandered chances . Perhaps it gives a bit more of an insightful review of the game rather than just having to rely on shots on and off target , but beyond that I wouldn't give it a second glance.

Aye, This is me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just rewatched the whole game, which I didn't realize I could do. Lamie's last ditch tackle on their guy is excellent, but his flat out sprint from their box to ours to make the tackle is immense.

You can notice these details when you already know the result and aren't waiting for the inevitable collapse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, JamesP_81 said:

On the xG thing the only time I've found it useful is as a retrospective stat after a game when it gives a bit of insight into whether one of the teams overperformed relative to the chances that they had on the day , ie if a game finished 2-1 and the xG was say 1.2-1.4 then the winning team have produced a better quality of finishing and the losers have squandered chances . Perhaps it gives a bit more of an insightful review of the game rather than just having to rely on shots on and off target , but beyond that I wouldn't give it a second glance.  As for predicting future results I'm in the 'yer da' camp on this one and am sure there's many other things that could show some kind of trend if extrapolated over a large enough period and calculated in just the right way.  

More importantly tho, Saturday's game was f*king brilliant. Tony Watt's shitehousery in particular deserves special praise.  

I wouldn’t know what 1.2 xG was.  I would understand shots at goals, shots on target, shots blocked and goals.

I don’t even know how they calculate possession.  Who sits and does that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Casagolda said:

This time last year I wanted rid altogether. Now I have no worries over him stepping in when required, he’s hardly put a foot wrong this season and was my motm again yesterday. 

The biggest difference between this year and last is the competition for places. In defence and up front, pretty much any of our players can do a good job and there are no stick-on starters, which is really unusual for us and is definitely driving standards up. We've not played the same defence twice and I'm not worried by any combination that we might have to play.

The task now is to get a similar situation in midfield.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Swello said:

The biggest difference between this year and last is the competition for places. In defence and up front, pretty much any of our players can do a good job and there are no stick-on starters, which is really unusual for us and is definitely driving standards up. We've not played the same defence twice and I'm not worried by any combination that we might have to play.

The task now is to get a similar situation in midfield.

I think it's probably worth considering just how much of a culture change this is compared with the 12-18 "strategy" and just generally how we've operated/built squads pre-Alexander. We won (comfortably) yesterday whilst still missing 2 international defenders and a centre forward who'd scored both our goals in our previous fixture before the international break. That's new.

This probably speaks to the point that @YassinMoutaouakil is making about being raging about the LC game at Dens but, to me at least, we still feel like a work in progress and rightly or wrongly the LC was used to give the squad a run out.

We pretty much played the reserves in that game at Dens (in fact it was enough for Lawless never to kick a baw for us again). The whole close/pre/early-season feels like it's been about work-in-progress and relative to the defence and forwards the midfield seems like it's the one area we haven't really touched save bringing Slattery and Goss in.

I had a daft long post drafted earlier in reply to @Casagolda's post that I ended up deleting as it was pretty fucking boring but presented without comment the long and the short is for all the criticism Alexander's taken about style yesterday was Alexander's 40th game in charge and he's currently sitting on a 45% win rate.

This season in our 14 league games we've scored at least 2 goals in 50% of them and failed to score in only 2 (Hearts at Tynecastle and Celtic at FP). Over the 40 games so far we've scored 2 or more in 17 (42.5%) and we've failed to score in only 7 (17.5%).

1591226880_ScreenShot2021-11-21at11_43_43.thumb.png.44fb06c259a037e8fd73220f7e485475.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Moving away from the XG chat, has there been a bigger turnaround from a Motherwell player in recent years than Rickie Lamie?
This time last year I wanted rid altogether. Now I have no worries over him stepping in when required, he’s hardly put a foot wrong this season and was my motm again yesterday. 
That’s now a goal and 2 assists in his last 4 games as well. 

Lamie and Mugabi are the new Jim Paterson and Steve McGarry.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ropy said:

Is there anywhere that lists how many yellow cards each player has?

There’s four places: There’s The Yellow Yard. That’s on Third. There’s Yellows R Us. That’s on Third too. There’s Put Your Cards There. That’s also on Third. And Flash High Sweet Yellow Card…

Matter of fact, they’re all in the same place: The Yellow Card complex down on Third.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...