Motherwell FC - A Thread For All Seasons

[Handsome_Devil]

With the caveat I've no idea about his actual coaching abilities he seems the sort of appointment we should nod and say 'good appointment' about.

[Swello]

1 hour ago, Handsome_Devil said:

With the caveat I've no idea about his actual coaching abilities he seems the sort of appointment we should nod and say 'good appointment' about.

Just like Frail - I can't see that it can be bad to bring in someone with first team management experience - and 250 games would make him the most experienced manager at the club. Indeed, if he'd been brought in as first team assistant, I doubt there would have been any complaints.

It feels like the club is more "solid" again after where we've been recently.

[YassinMoutaouakil]

I reckon it won't be long before at least few clubs round about our level just pack in the youth academy altogether. There's probably a point where you're putting in more than you're getting out.

[wellboy1991]

2 hours ago, YassinMoutaouakil said:

I reckon it won't be long before at least few clubs round about our level just pack in the youth academy altogether. There's probably a point where you're putting in more than you're getting out.

Actually agree with this. It’s utterly pointless becoming as any youth of a decent level is getting their head turned on a swivel and paid big bucks by the big boys. The changes to the working regs hasn’t helped smaller clubs at all. 
 

Was listening (for my sins) tonight to Clyde 1 scoreboard and the chat got around to the Scottish National side and the lack of Scottish players in the bigger sides in our league. However these same sides are cherry picking the best of the youth and not giving them the chance to play as say a smaller side will. 
 

Genuinely don’t know what the answer is to this other than the youngsters themselves realising experience is more valuable than money at this stage for your career. 

[Handsome_Devil]

9 hours ago, wellboy1991 said:

Actually agree with this. It’s utterly pointless becoming as any youth of a decent level is getting their head turned on a swivel and paid big bucks by the big boys. The changes to the working regs hasn’t helped smaller clubs at all. 

It hasn't helped in getting players into the first team but some obviously still make it - or at least fill out the squad.

And while the chance of becoming rich through your youth system is much reduced, I'd be surprised if it's not still viable financially for us - potentially even more consistently than before.

The guys who sign elsewhere at 16 will have accumulated hundreds of thousands for us by now when, on the evidence of their playing careers, staying would have brought us zero (flawed as that direct comparison is).

I think the basic calculation the club made when project brave was announced remains true - it's a shite system but while it exists we have to be in it.

[gannonball]

12 hours ago, wellboy1991 said:

Actually agree with this. It’s utterly pointless becoming as any youth of a decent level is getting their head turned on a swivel and paid big bucks by the big boys. The changes to the working regs hasn’t helped smaller clubs at all. 
 

Was listening (for my sins) tonight to Clyde 1 scoreboard and the chat got around to the Scottish National side and the lack of Scottish players in the bigger sides in our league. However these same sides are cherry picking the best of the youth and not giving them the chance to play as say a smaller side will. 
 

Genuinely don’t know what the answer is to this other than the youngsters themselves realising experience is more valuable than money at this stage for your career. 

I think the real cherry picking is done down south now and even further afield. Even we can't keep our better players now and given the bigger teams in England need to make sure  they make their homegrown quota for Europe you will find our youth players will always be a pull for them as a relatively inexpensive risk. Because of that you are left with substandard players that probably don't stick out as much to show they are ready for first team football at the higher end.

[capt_oats]

3 hours ago, Handsome_Devil said:

It hasn't helped in getting players into the first team but some obviously still make it - or at least fill out the squad.

And while the chance of becoming rich through your youth system is much reduced, I'd be surprised if it's not still viable financially for us - potentially even more consistently than before.

The guys who sign elsewhere at 16 will have accumulated hundreds of thousands for us by now when, on the evidence of their playing careers, staying would have brought us zero (flawed as that direct comparison is).

I think the basic calculation the club made when project brave was announced remains true - it's a shite system but while it exists we have to be in it.

+1 on this.

I'm fairly sure that one of the benefits of the academy is that it makes us eligible for funding and grants etc. Don't get me wrong, that's a fairly 'unseen' plus point to the average fan but it's necessary all the same.

One of the other things is that, while it might not sit well that we're seeing Academy players moving on before they've kicked a baw in the first team, they also generate revenue for us through player trading. I get that's all incredibly capitalist and folk want to see players on the park rather how they benefit a balance sheet but I suppose there are certain realities in Modern Fitba'.

I had posted a fairly loose list of our transfers since 14/15 when Erwin moved to Leeds earlier in The Thread. The post is from August 2020 so possibly just before Turnbull's (knee) fell apart and the original transfer to Celtic fell over as a result:

Spoiler

On 28/08/2020 at 19:40, capt_oats said:

@well fan for life referenced this in the match thread earlier but I thought I'd stick the post in here because it's more to do with 'A Thread For All Seasons' than it is a routine Celtic win...

I'd posted a running total of REPORTED fees we've brought in since Hutchison took over and the subsequent shift to fan ownership here just after the Scott transfer at the end of January so with the 'club record' fee for Turnbull that bumps the player trading revenue up further.

I'm not an accountant and I'm not doing a fucking audit so any of the joyless "no chance did we get X for that guy" c***s can do one...yes, some are probably contingent on add ons being activated and all that but I've lifted the reported fees from a quick Google and in the case of Pearson, Johnson, Heneghan and Bowman a rough guess based on the numbers that appeared in the accounts.

20/21 - David Turnbull (Celtic) - £3m - Transfer
19/20 - James Scott (Hull City) - £1.5m - Transfer
19/20 - Reece McAlear (Norwich City) - £250k - Transfer
19/20 - Jake Hastie (Rangers) £350k - Development Compensation
19/20 - Stuart McKinstry (Leeds United) - £400k - Transfer
18/19 - Ryan Bowman (Exeter City) - £30k - Transfer
18/19 - Cedric Kipré (Wigan) - c.£1m - Transfer
17/18 - Louis Moult (Preston North End) - £500k - Transfer 
17/18 - Ben Heneghan (Sheffield United) - £350k-ish - Transfer
16/17 - Marvin Johnson (Oxford United) - £750k-ish including sell on - Transfer
16/17 - Stephen Pearson (Atletico Kolkata) - £100k - Transfer 
16/17 - Ben Hall (Brighton) - £210k - Development Compensation
14/15 - Lee Erwin (Leeds United) - £500k - Development Compensation

Total = £8.94m

Kyle Semple also moved to Rangers and for 'a five figure fee' but I've left that one off as I don't think I've seen that number anywhere else beyond Reddit and The Twitter. There's also the ongoing Cadden dispute as well I guess.

The first sale under Robinson was Heneghan - so during his tenure the club has brought in a reported £7.38m through player trading.

Anyway, here's that list updated with added Sol, Allan Campbell, Bailey Rice, Tony Watt and soon to be Max Johnston.

23/23 - Max Johnston (TBC) - £ TBC - Development Compensation
22/23 - Sondre Solholm Johansen (Odd) - £? - Transfer
22/23 - Bailey Rice (Rangers) - £ undisclosed - Development Compensation
21/22 - Tony Watt (Dundee United) - £175k - Transfer
21/22 - Allan Campbell (Luton Town) - £? - Development Compensation
20/21 - David Turnbull (Celtic) - £3m - Transfer
19/20 - James Scott (Hull City) - £1.5m - Transfer
19/20 - Reece McAlear (Norwich City) - £250k - Transfer
19/20 - Jake Hastie (Rangers) £350k - Development Compensation
19/20 - Stuart McKinstry (Leeds United) - £400k - Transfer
18/19 - Ryan Bowman (Exeter City) - £30k - Transfer
18/19 - Cedric Kipré (Wigan) - c.£1m - Transfer
17/18 - Louis Moult (Preston North End) - £500k - Transfer 
17/18 - Ben Heneghan (Sheffield United) - £350k-ish - Transfer
16/17 - Marvin Johnson (Oxford United) - £750k-ish including sell on - Transfer
16/17 - Stephen Pearson (Atletico Kolkata) - £100k - Transfer 
16/17 - Ben Hall (Brighton) - £210k - Development Compensation
14/15 - Lee Erwin (Leeds United) - £500k - Development Compensation

18 players of whom 10 are products of the Motherwell Academy (11 if you include Pearson). No Chris Cadden there as it seems to have been the case that we ended up with an entirely redundant IOU out of that situation.

That's before you factor in the various 'do a job' types who we may not have seen any cash for but nevertheless have filled a jersey over the years ie: Barry Maguire, Jack McMillan, Dom Thomas etc

Getting Campbell to sign a 4 year extension at 19 allowing us to get 100+ games out of him definitely feels like a sweet spot that's increasingly hard to hit given our schedule means that after they've signed their first pro deal if they're good they'll probably already have been on the radar of other clubs down south and realistically they'll into the final year of their contract when they hit the first team.

It's worth mentioning that the 'interest' in Max Johnston isn't recent, his name started appearing in the papers this time last year.

That said, while I wasn't in the room so don't know exactly what was said, the reporting from the AGM was that Hammell suggested he was confident Johnston would re-sign.

Obviously SH was emptied fairly soon after so circumstances change but even then I still wonder whether that was naivety or if he was just bluffing. I mean, having seen the list of clubs who supposedly have some sort of interest in him I don't imagine they've just suddenly appeared on the scene post-Hammell.

Edited March 28, 2023 by capt_oats

[eliphas]

Aye it's a tricky one. Probably a readjustment of expectations needed compared to what a youth system used to deliver pre the EPL exploding in bundles of cash, and pre Project Brave.

Even providing a consistent pathway to the first team won't keep them all.

So for me now it's a mix of 1) accepting some will go to bigger clubs before we see them, 2) some will stay and be serviceable players at our level or if we are lucky a big sellable asset 3) probably realising some will go, not make it, and come back to Scotland.

Feels like the latter category we kind of write them off as failures if they don't immediately make it. A part of me would rather we got a 21 year old back who had been through our youth system vs a 21 year old from Rotherham as a project. Similar to the 'what if' x player had got 50 first team games with us rather than moving to Norwich, I'd bet there are a few players who come back up the road who could end up doing quite well.

Edited March 28, 2023 by eliphas

[thisGRAEME]

Stuff like Brave is always a bit of a mad one.

Undoubtedly well intentioned but good luck when you have to factor in stuff like Brexit within it, which iirc came long after it, which completely changed the rules and practicalities of scouting across the country. 

[capt_oats]

1 hour ago, eliphas said:

Aye it's a tricky one. Probably a readjustment of expectations needed compared to what a youth system used to deliver pre the EPL exploding in bundles of cash, and pre Project Brave.

Even providing a consistent pathway to the first team won't keep them all.

So for me now it's a mix of 1) accepting some will go to bigger clubs before we see them, 2) some will stay and be serviceable players at our level or if we are lucky a big sellable asset 3) probably realising some will go, not make it, and come back to Scotland.

Feels like the latter category we kind of write them off as failures if they don't immediately make it. A part of me would rather we got a 21 year old back who had been through our youth system vs a 21 year old from Rotherham as a project. Similar to the 'what if' x player had got 50 first team games with us rather than moving to Norwich, I'd bet there are a few players who come back up the road who could end up doing quite well.

Aye, I think one of the obstacles your general "fan" probably has a problem getting their head around is the idea that from any given youth cycle we're probably only reasonably expecting one or two to break into the first team. Not every youth player is expected to be a first team regular and if our pitch is to give young players the opportunity to progress their career then if that opportunity comes along early then it's going to be tough to argue that they should turn that down.

The Turnbull, Campbell, Hastie, Scott group feels like it was the exception rather than the rule. Especially coming off the back of the previous cohort where you had the likes of Cadden etc so we had this run that perhaps saw an unrealistic expectation of what the 'pathway' is going to look like.

There will maybe be one or two who will surprise you on top of the couple of players you're going all in on in terms of what your hopes and expectations for them are but broadly there's going to be an expected amount of wastage.

Like, with the current group of new graduates we lost Bailey Rice but kept Lennon Miller (on a 3 year deal) and you'd maybe hope that one or two might develop further and make a case for inclusion but that's about it. I know the club have high hopes and this is one of the groups they're excited about but you'd think we're in a position where there's still a baseline for what our realistic pathway aims are.

It feels like the increased activity of "Big Teams" outside of Scotland looking at the league and apparently being happy to chuck development or transfer fees at teenagers based on potential is an obstacle that was probably always there to a lesser extent but now you're factoring in the Brexit element @thisGRAEME's just mentioned which has turned everything on its head compared to the landscape when Brave was originally thrown together.

Mildly related, I had wondered what had happened to Sam Campbell who had popped up on the bench at tail end of last season under Alexander and is one of those less publicised stories of players who were linked with a move south but stuck around (for whatever reason) - Liverpool, Leeds and Brighton were the teams mentioned.

Turns out he's been injured since the summer and is missing the bulk of the season according to his profile on the official.

It's been mentioned before but the pandemic and subsequent mothballing of the development levels seems to have fucked things for a lot of clubs not just us. There was an entire cycle who were pretty much cut loose at the end of 20/21.

Add selling McKinstry and McAlear when we did and it should be clear why we've been left with a fairly obvious gap.

[YassinMoutaouakil]

I'm not sure how much of it is a UK govt thing vs the English FA's own perogative but I wonder if the work permit thing might relax slightly if Starmer is PM (once he's finished locking up all the yobs with ASBOS.) 

General trends are definitely still pushing young players towards the bigger leagues but it might make the English clubs slightly less aggressive in the Scottish market?

[Desp]

I'm sure Starmer, if he makes it to PM, will do what's best for his fellow Tories.

[capt_oats]

Archie starts with a 1-1 draw against Hibs.

[ropy]

I have been away the past two weeks so slightly out of touch but did Turnbull even make the Scotland squad?

 

[wellboy1991]

59 minutes ago, ropy said:

I have been away the past two weeks so slightly out of touch but did Turnbull even make the Scotland squad?

 

He’s struggling to even make the Celtic squad these days so well away from the Scotland set up.

[Kapowzer]

Shoulda went to Norwich ….

Saying that the other great white hope Gilmour has fallen off a cliff.

[Jim McLean's Ghost]

Stephen O'Donnell on Sportscene.

We run the BBC

[Kapowzer]

Remember when McTominay was tasked with babysitting him, doubt he would have been as far forward to score a goal every 30 minutes he is on the pitch.

[YassinMoutaouakil]

Tell you what, I'm really really glad we didn't have Liam Kelly chucking at least one in last night. 

[crazylegsjoe_mfc]

To be honest, I think Turnbull has had a really unlucky set of circumstances.

He was about the only player to graduate from Sellick's COVID season with any credit and then started off the next season very well before picking up an injury, after which Celtic had signed a few central midfielders.

He actually has a very good goals / assists ratio for the minutes he's played this season. 

He's just unfortunate that Scotland have Jack, McGregor, McTominay, Gilmour, McGinn, Armstrong, Ferguson and McLean all able to a job in central midfield.

Gilmour is probably just about earned his place in the squad despite his lack of minutes through goodwill gained from his time in the team from June 2021 - June 2022, but outwith him, it would be tough to make an argument for Turnbull taking any of the rest of their places in the team.

In the three formations Clarke has used (4-2-3-1, 3-4-1-2 and 3-4-2-1) you'd probably argue Turnbull would have to be a '10' in those formations and there are probably a good few ahead of him for that role.

It's actually, for the national side, a great luxury that we don't actually need a player of his quality at this time.

On a side note, this is probably through me being ill informed because I watched Turnbull every week and probably rated Gilmour in my head through his reputation without having seen him much, but a few years ago I would not have predicted out of the three that Lewis Ferguson would be the one doing the best for himself at this point.