Motherwell FC - A Thread For All Seasons

[capt_oats]

28 minutes ago, Al B said:

MORE shots since the break you say? But on target has gone down you say?

 

Kevin

Van

VEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEN

Has a conversion rate of 17% and shot accuracy of 52%...

[capt_oats]

Since I've nothing better to do I was curious to see how the same numbers compared for Alexander's 18 league games in charge last season.

Spoiler

09/01/21 - St Mirren - 1-1 (X) - 11 (3) | 16 (2)
17/01/21 - Rangers - 1-1 (X) - 5 (3) | 16 (5)
23/01/21 - Aberdeen - 2-0 (L) - 6 (3) | 26 (8)
27/01/21 - Ross County - 1-2 (W) - 12 (6) | 11 (5)
03/02/21 - Dundee United - 2-1 (W) - 13 (6) | 15 (3)
06/02/21 - Celtic - 2-1 (L) - 7 (5) | 22 (9)
10/02/21 - Kilmarnock - 0-1 (W) - 11 (4) | 18 (5)
13/02/21 - Accies - 1-4 (L) - 11 (1) | 15 (5)
20/02/21 - St Johnstone - 0-3 (L) - 1 (1) | 22 (7)
24/02/21 - St Mirren - 0-0 (X) - 14 (2) | 7 (2)
27/02/21 - Hibs - 0-2 (W) - 12 (2) | 16 (3)
06/03/21 - Livingston - 3-1 (W) - 14 (6) | 10 (4)
20/03/21 - Kilmarnock - 4-1 (L) - 9 (3) | 13 (5)
10/04/21 - St Mirren - 1-0 (W) - 11 (3) | 15 (7)
21/04/21- Accies - 0-1  (W) - 12 (3) | 5 (1)
01/05/21 - Kilmarnock - 2-0 (W) - 11 (2) } 18 (4)
12/05/21 - Dundee United - 2-2 (X) - 12 (5) | 13 (6)
16/05/21 - Ross County - 1-2 (L) - 7 (1) | 10 (2)

Average shots per game = 9.94 / On target = 3.27
Average shots conceded per game = 14.88 / On target = 4.61
Total shots = 179 (59 OT)  Goals scored = 22 Conversion rate = 12.29% (37.2%)
Total shots against = 268 (83 OT)  Goals conceded = 24 Conversion rate = 8.95% (28.91%)

So there you have it, it was much closer to the period of this season up to the break. Although again it's worth bearing in mind that we took the lead in 10 of those 18 games compared with 11 of the 20 up to the break this season and only 1 of 11 since the break.

It suggests that whatever fuckery Alexander has been up to since the winter break has left us far less efficient in terms of converting chances (despite taking more shots at goal) and less effective defensively despite facing fewer shots on average than either of these 2 other periods.

Edited March 27, 2022 by capt_oats

[RandomGuy.]

10 minutes ago, capt_oats said:

It suggests that whatever fuckery Alexander has been up to since the winter break has left us far less efficient in terms of converting chances (despite taking more shots at goal) and less effective defensively despite facing fewer shots on average than either of these 2 other periods.

The xG Gods have taken control of your fate after the obscene overpeformance before Christmas.

Their power is unrivalled.

[welldaft]

22 hours ago, capt_oats said:

We're also averaging fewer shots on our goal than we were but conceding more...the opposition have coverted 46.3% (that's FORTY SIX POINT THREE PERCENT) of their shots on target.

This particular stat does not surprise me. It feels as if recently every shot on target is resulting in a goal. I recall in the away game v Ross County. They had two shots on goal and won 3-1 . That sums it up for me. 

I very much doubt any team in the UK has a higher % shots on target resulting in goals. It is actually bordering on the bizarre. 

We are either incredibly unlucky or shite or probably both. 

I know this is tantamount to heresy, but it does also suggest our Goalkeeper has not been at his best during this run ? 

What is the betting we are on top in the game on Saturday, have several chances and St Mirren score with 1st attempt on target. I hope not but recent history would suggest that is a more than likely outcome.

 

 

Edited March 27, 2022 by welldaft

[thisGRAEME]

3 hours ago, welldaft said:

I know this is tantamount to heresy, but it does also suggest our Goalkeeper has not been at his best during this run ? 

I think a little from column a) he's not actually 'world class' as some claim, and b) asking him to make incredible saves at least once a game probably isn't a sustainable gameplan. 

[capt_oats]

3 hours ago, welldaft said:

This particular stat does not surprise me. It feels as if recently every shot on target is resulting in a goal. I recall in the away game v Ross County. They had two shots on goal and won 3-1 . That sums it up for me. 

I very much doubt any team in the UK has a higher % shots on target resulting in goals. It is actually bordering on the bizarre. 

We are either incredibly unlucky or shite or probably both. 

I know this is tantamount to heresy, but it does also suggest our Goalkeeper has not been at his best during this run ? 

What is the betting we are on top in the game on Saturday, have several chances and St Mirren score with 1st attempt on target. I hope not but recent history would suggest that is a more than likely outcome.

Agree with @thisGRAEME's post above re: Kelly.

Equally Celtic's 4th and Dundee's goal the other week are solid examples of us being both incredibly unlucky and shite.

I'd be more inclined to ask whether fucking around with the midfield in the way we have is an issue for giving up chances rather than it necessarily being a reflection on Kelly.

To break down the goals we've conceded;

2 OG (Johansen vs County, Mugabi vs Rangers)
2 penalties (County x2)
3 individual errors (McGinley vs County, Shaw vs Hearts, O'Donnell vs Dundee)

Which leaves another 12 (of which 1 is that absolutely ludicrous goal that Maeda scored). Without going through each individually it's tough to think of any that you'd put down to Kelly any more than defensive issues in front of him IMO.

Edited March 27, 2022 by capt_oats

[Handsome_Devil]

It's a great stat which certainly suggests Kelly to blame. It's also a great stat which suggests why it's important to actually watch matches rather than just read spreadsheets...I don't think there's a single fan who'd put our issues on Kelly, unlike our autumn run when he was shipping at least one a game.

 

[Busta Nut]

I am surprised here.
A look at "is Kelly to blame?" is the last thing I expected to see.

Sure as @thisGRAEME said he's not world class. Far from it but he's been to blame for very little this year as far as I remember, I tend to forget the fitba at 5.15pm these days.

He's still better than Zander Clarke and the diddy Livi have in goals.

[welldaft]

18 minutes ago, Busta Nut said:

I am surprised here.
A look at "is Kelly to blame?" is the last thing I expected to see.

Sure as @thisGRAEME said he's not world class. Far from it but he's been to blame for very little this year as far as I remember, I tend to forget the fitba at 5.15pm these days.

He's still better than Zander Clarke and the diddy Livi have in goals.

Calm down…

I am a huge fan of Kelly. Player of the season for me. And one of the key reasons why we had our positive run of results in 2021.

I was just saying that conceding a goal every two shots could suggest that Kelly (or any goalkeeper) could have done better. I accept that there are not many goals that he could be directly blamed for. I tend to believe the defence are more at fault as Captn details - many defensive errors / lapses. 

Let’s hope Kelly gets his 1st Scotland cap this week.

[CoF]

There's maybe a couple that I recall that I think Kelly at his best wouldn't have let past him, but I think the more likely theory is that the opposition are getting easier chances because we're so shite? 

['WellDel]

1 hour ago, CoF said:

There's maybe a couple that I recall that I think Kelly at his best wouldn't have let past him, but I think the more likely theory is that the opposition are getting easier chances because we're so shite? 

Agree with this. We've been very lucky in the recent past to get some true quality keepers like Randolph and Ruddy in on loan, but as a permanent signing Kelly is as steady a pair of hands as we could hope to have, and I think he will earn us a few quid when he departs. The increase in goals conceded is down to the vastly increased number of easy chances we pathetically offer up on a plate every single fucking week.

Is he world class? No, if he was he obviously wouldnt be with us, but he is definitely one of the best in the league. 

Since he came in, like most at this level he's had his moments. His brainfart penalty incident at Tynecastle and Celtic's first in a game at Fir Park when Jota (I think?) done him far too easily at his front post are just two which come to mind. The only keeper in this league you see very few of these blips from is Gordon. Even on the opposite side of Glasgow and earning multiples of Kellys wages, McGregor is also prone to some gaffes.

Our piss poor GA column is depressing to look at, but there's very little of it that can be levelled directly at Kelly.

 

[YassinMoutaouakil]

I think we can all agree GA is the problem

[welldaft]

1 hour ago, YassinMoutaouakil said:

I think we can all agree GA is the problem

It would appear so. But……

He was the solution last year.

So what has changed.

That really is the $1m Q.

[Kapowzer]

2 hours ago, welldaft said:

It would appear so. But……

He was the solution last year.

So what has changed.

That really is the $1m Q.

Well .... he appears to have spent that £1m and fell out with them, that answer your question?

[eliphas]

There's as much overthinking going on on fan forums over this international break as there is in GA's heed for team selections 

In my mind there's no silver bullet. It's a bit of everything really...bit of tactics, bit of team selection, bit of luck/lack of, bit of poor man management, bit of stubbornness, bit of players chucking in horror individual errors too, bit of injury, bit of Covid....bit of a rubbish season. 

Edited March 28, 2022 by eliphas

[welldaft]

7 hours ago, Kapowzer said:

Well .... he appears to have spent that £1m and fell out with them, that answer your question?

In all seriousness these are (for me anyway) rumours. 

The Slattery one is iirc where it all started. Why is he not playing - fans would ask. Ah well you see he fell out with GA after criticising his tactics. 

I may have missed it but there has been nothing concrete to suggest this is or has happened. 

@Onthefringes is usually in the know but has not I believe backed up this theory. 

I did see a response from Flow to a tweet where he did seem to suggest there were some issues, but could not (obviously) go any further. I very much doubt he was referring to the Manager being the problem. But who knows…

This is what happens when your team are on a shite run and there are only International friendlies to keep us occupied

Edited March 28, 2022 by welldaft

[Mr Hahn]

1 hour ago, welldaft said:

 

The Slattery one is iirc where it all started. Why is he not playing - fans would ask. Ah well you see he fell out with GA after criticising his tactics. 

I may have missed it but there has been nothing concrete to suggest this is or has happened. 

For me, something must have happened. Whether it's a falling out or something else, we're all just guessing but something doesn't add up.

Slattery was playing most games before the winter break and by all accounts we were having a decent season. We were high up in the league and looking sure to be challenging for a European spot or at least top 6. Were we brilliant? Absolutely not, but we were a hell of a lot better than we are now and we were winning games. So, if something is working, why change it? All that changed over winter was Watt leaving and all of a sudden we decide to start tinkering with the whole side? Doesn't make sense.

I get GA's chat about Slattery only really having played U23 games and therefore lacking a bit of experience of first team football and some areas of his game being a little behind. But we've heard it a thousand times, young players get better at this stuff by playing games of football. It's why clubs the world over send young players out on loan if they're not playing. Slattery is quite clearly good enough to play in our first team, even taking GA's word for it that parts of his game are lacking. To develop those other parts of his game, he needs to be playing games so dropping him for that reason doesn't carry much sway with me either. He'll make mistakes, of course he will but did he really do anything that bad in games to warrant him moving from one of the first names on the teamsheet to barely featuring?

GA has said his fitness and stamina might be lacking. Not playing him for that reason is a load of nonsense. Firstly, he's a professional footballer who, as far as we know, has been injury free for the whole season. He'll have been training every week, there was no sign of his stamina being a big issue in the first half of the season, so I simply find this hard to believe. Secondly, let's assume his stamina means he can't last 90 mins, we've got 5 fucking subs! I think that rule's a joke but it's the rules, so if he's running low on gas at about 60-70 mins, just use a sub! He's not going to get match fit if he doesn't play actual matches ffs.

My other issue with this is the level of expectation this is building on the player. Slattery is a good player at our level but I think all on this forum accept he's not the second coming of Iniesta. He's not going to fix all of our problems on his own. But the longer GA leaves him out the side, the longer the bias of not being part of this rotten side continues to build and the better a player we all remember him being. The fanbase continue to build him up and build him up to the point where I feel we're putting far too much expectation on him if/when he does return to the team. 

To me this is a case and point of exactly how NOT to manage a young player with talent. Contrary to the twitter warriors out there though, I don't think GA is an idiot so where is this level of man management coming from. To me surely something must have happened because nothing else makes sense.

[capt_oats]

The Slattery thing is something that's just grown arms and legs.

Is it possible there's been a fall-out? Sure. I'd imagine there are fall outs at pretty much every fitba club going.

Has he been frozen out? No.

He's been in every match day squad since the break and made an appearance off the bench as recently as the Dundee game on 5th March.

For a bit of context, his last start was the 2-0 loss at Tannadice on the 9th of February. He was subbed off after 63 mins. He had started 3 of the previous 4 before that (started against Hearts, St Mirren and Celtic. Came off the bench against Morton in the SC).

Our next game he started on the bench and...we won. It was February 12th and it was the 2-1 in the Cup against Aberdeen. He was on the bench against Aberdeen (1-1) and Rangers (2-2).

The starting midfield in both of the b2b Aberdeen games was Donnelly, O'Hara, Goss. The Rangers game Goss dropped out for Cornelius so it was Donnelly, O'Hara, Cornelius.

The County and Dundee games it was back to Donnelly, O'Hara, Goss.

Hear me out here as it's a wild shout but is it possible that Alexander wasn't happy with Slattery in the United game, gave someone else a shot to start, we got a positive result out it so he's rightly or wrongly went with other options in the team while sections of our support fall over themselves to get their tinfoil hats out?

Edited March 28, 2022 by capt_oats

[Handsome_Devil]

21 minutes ago, capt_oats said:

The Slattery thing is something that's just grown arms and legs.

Is it possible there's been a fall-out? Sure. I'd imagine there are fall outs at pretty much every fitba club going.

Has he been frozen out? No.

He's been in every match day squad since the break and made an appearance off the bench as recently as the Dundee game on 5th March.

For a bit of context, his last start was the 2-0 loss at Tannadice on the 9th of February. He was subbed off after 63 mins. He had started 3 of the previous 4 before that (started against Hearts, St Mirren and Celtic. Came off the bench against Morton in the SC).

Our next game he started on the bench and...we won. It was February 12th and it was the 2-1 in the Cup against Aberdeen. He was on the bench against Aberdeen (1-1) and Rangers (2-2).

Hear me out here but is it possible that Alexander wasn't happy with Slattery in the United game, gave someone else a shot to start, we got a positive result out it so he's rightly or wrongly went with other options in the team while sections of our support fall over themselves to get their tinfoil hats out?

It's possible, aye.

But you can also say Slattery was our best midfielder in the 4-3-3 which had us fourth on Boxing Day, he has hardly started in that shape since given the approach at St Mirren and v Celtic. He helped turn the game v Morton and while we were 1-0 down at HT at United, that was the best we'd played in weeks - we should never have been losing and GA himself admitted he told the team to go out with the foot off the gas in the second half. Slattery paid the price with the sub and being dropped but it could have been anyone...yet when it's a guy we've spent a fortune on and was one of our best players it's no wonder eyebrows are raised. And the game we won after, v Aberdeen, was now six matches ago for which we've been utterly shite for 90% of the time.

There are always rumours and every fan will need to decide what they believe, while acknowledging that even if the rumour is true they might be hearing only half the story or something with all context removed (Gannon on Craigan, for example). FWIW between the weight of the Slattery stuff and in particular who I've heard it from, I'm convinced the disagreement is/was true. 

But whether that's everything to it or still the cause of his recent lack of playing time, I've no idea...I can well imagine GA saying he has put the rumored disagreements behind him (hence why he's not been fired into the sun like Polworth) and Slattery isn't being picked because of his training performance while Slattery will say his training is suffering because he believes the manager won't pick him. 

And whatever the reasons behind it, GA watching a two-man midfield get slaughtered by St Johnstone for 90 mins with Slattery on the bench is absolutely criminal.

[Londonwell]

2 hours ago, capt_oats said:

The Slattery thing is something that's just grown arms and legs.

Is it possible there's been a fall-out? Sure. I'd imagine there are fall outs at pretty much every fitba club going.

Has he been frozen out? No.

He's been in every match day squad since the break and made an appearance off the bench as recently as the Dundee game on 5th March.

For a bit of context, his last start was the 2-0 loss at Tannadice on the 9th of February. He was subbed off after 63 mins. He had started 3 of the previous 4 before that (started against Hearts, St Mirren and Celtic. Came off the bench against Morton in the SC).

Our next game he started on the bench and...we won. It was February 12th and it was the 2-1 in the Cup against Aberdeen. He was on the bench against Aberdeen (1-1) and Rangers (2-2).

The starting midfield in both of the b2b Aberdeen games was Donnelly, O'Hara, Goss. The Rangers game Goss dropped out for Cornelius so it was Donnelly, O'Hara, Cornelius.

The County and Dundee games it was back to Donnelly, O'Hara, Goss.

Hear me out here as it's a wild shout but is it possible that Alexander wasn't happy with Slattery in the United game, gave someone else a shot to start, we got a positive result out it so he's rightly or wrongly went with other options in the team while sections of our support fall over themselves to get their tinfoil hats out?

I don’t know whether there’s been a fall out and to be honest I don’t really care. However, I don’t think you need to have your tin foil hat on to question why other midfield options are allowed to stink the place out on the regular and a player like Slattery who previously had either been ok/good isn’t playing more than he is at present.

We can analyse it until the cows come home but the simple eye test tells us that Slattery is better than those who are playing more often than him. That will naturally raise questions and I don’t think that’s unreasonable.