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South Lanarkshire Jag

Partick Thistle 2020/21 thread

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7 hours ago, pthardie said:

Is it a coincidence that we’re on a winning run with the games so close together leaving less time for training where we seem to pick up so many injuries?

If anything, our full-time training is now bearing fruit.

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18 minutes ago, jagfox BLM said:

If anything, our full-time training is now bearing fruit.

Huge credit to the players for maintaining their fitness over the last lockdown. Prior to that I didn't think they looked any fitter than the part timers. Even the first few games back we didn't seem to have any better stamina than part timers, think I might have blamed AA for that, but as you say our being full time is now showing.

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On 16/04/2021 at 21:26, JudgeMudge said:

Really impressed with Bell, particularly his passing. Quite a while since we’ve had decent passes played from the back. 

I wasn't all that bothered when he left at the start of the season. Would happily have him back now though given the pretenders we replaced him with in the centre of defense. 

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On 17/04/2021 at 18:13, AMMjag said:

I liked Abdul Osman, one of the classiest midfielders I've seen play for us. For whatever reason he just fell off a cliff the year we got relegated, whether it was lasting effects of injury or just putting all his efforts into a bargain bin clothes line. It's not as if he went to a rival after us and turned back into Claude Makelele.

My favourite moment was just after he joined us, the season after big Isaac Osbourne had left us and gone to St Mirren (I think).  We played them, and the ball broke for a 50-50 between them.  You could see both of them see each other, then go in full force.  Big Abdul fucking ended him, both metaphorically and literally, with Osbourne going off injured a few minutes later.

Big shame how it ended with him playing for us.  A stunning fall.

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Who is it on here that has done the brilliant stats stuff with simulations the last few seasons? Would love to see it when we aren't fighting relegation for a change!

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8 hours ago, jaggyness said:

Who is it on here that has done the brilliant stats stuff with simulations the last few seasons? Would love to see it when we aren't fighting relegation for a change!

@Fuctifano

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Haven't posted it this year since the restart as it needs to know the exact fixtures which isn't possible in a league with a split. So the below is only up til the games tomorrow and then I'll change top 5 to top 4, 10th to "down" etc, and obviously being 8th or higher at 10pm tomorrow doesn't mean safety. 

We were at 14% chance of 1st at the restart and 1.9% after the East Fife game. Of the 1000 Sims of tomorrows games we end up 1st 17%, 2nd 35%, and 3rd 48%.

PXL_20210419_072616760.jpg

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A Partick with (links to The Kingdom) star was behind me in the queue at the bakery a short while ago. As a highly trained athlete I know the body needs essentially nutrients like fat, sugar and caffeine to get through the day. He has some rabbit food roll and a soup rather than jammie doughnut, red bull and steak pie though. 

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1 hour ago, Abby Normal said:

A Partick with (links to The Kingdom) star was behind me in the queue at the bakery a short while ago. As a highly trained athlete I know the body needs essentially nutrients like fat, sugar and caffeine to get through the day. He has some rabbit food roll and a soup rather than jammie doughnut, red bull and steak pie though. 

What's a Partick? 🤔

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38 minutes ago, jagfox BLM said:

What's a Partick? 🤔

It’s Apple’s suggestion that you change your team’s name. Californian fascists. 

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Shortly we'll be introducing 32 pages for each of our managers / co-managers from the entire history of the club. As a prelude to this, our latest 'Partickle' chronicles all of our managerial comings and goings, illustrated and precisely dated in one handy overview. 20 mins read...

The Managerial Comings And Goings →

partickles-managers-2.jpg

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On 19/04/2021 at 08:41, Fuctifano said:

Haven't posted it this year since the restart as it needs to know the exact fixtures which isn't possible in a league with a split. So the below is only up til the games tomorrow and then I'll change top 5 to top 4, 10th to "down" etc, and obviously being 8th or higher at 10pm tomorrow doesn't mean safety. 

We were at 14% chance of 1st at the restart and 1.9% after the East Fife game. Of the 1000 Sims of tomorrows games we end up 1st 17%, 2nd 35%, and 3rd 48%.

PXL_20210419_072616760.jpg

Remind me how you randomise the results? For a given fixture, is it just equal probability of away win / home win / draw, or are you weighting somehow? 

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1 hour ago, Uncle Psychosis said:

Remind me how you randomise the results? For a given fixture, is it just equal probability of away win / home win / draw, or are you weighting somehow? 

Using Elo and the formula on eloratings.net. I normally just let the promoted /relegated clubs take over the rating of those they replaced but with the shorter season I went back when the restart happened and retrospectively adjusted Cove's starting rating upwards as they weren't catching up to their "true" rating fast enough ie they would be underdogs for a home match vs Airdrie or East Fife which shouldn't be the case 

edit: I feel obliged to point out I started doing this in 2013/14  as a "what amount of points should get you promoted / playoffs / safe", the fates of individual teams is kind of secondary and I certainly don't try and use it to beat the bookies or as a prediction tool- the first season I did it Hibs had a less than 5% change of being relegated at the split and that didn't turn out as expected...

FWIW at the restart the spreadsheet had 27 points as "getting top 5" 90%+ of the time and 22 points getting 8th or higher after 18 games 90% plus, so not too bad, it's since worked its way down to 21 for 8th. 

Edited by Fuctifano

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On 19/04/2021 at 08:41, Fuctifano said:

Haven't posted it this year since the restart as it needs to know the exact fixtures which isn't possible in a league with a split. So the below is only up til the games tomorrow and then I'll change top 5 to top 4, 10th to "down" etc, and obviously being 8th or higher at 10pm tomorrow doesn't mean safety. 

We were at 14% chance of 1st at the restart and 1.9% after the East Fife game. Of the 1000 Sims of tomorrows games we end up 1st 17%, 2nd 35%, and 3rd 48%.

PXL_20210419_072616760.jpg

What you haven't taken in to account there is the fact that our co-managers are monumental diddies 

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the first season I did it Hibs had a less than 5% change of being relegated at the split and that didn't turn out as expected...

That sounds about right actually. It's not like they were relegated with a game to spare, it took a penalty shoot out to get them (hilariously) down. To be honest, I'm surprised it was as high as nine.

I'm looking forward to your update tonight once the fixtures are known. Many thanks for all your efforts!

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1 hour ago, Fuctifano said:

Using Elo and the formula on eloratings.net. I normally just let the promoted /relegated clubs take over the rating of those they replaced but with the shorter season I went back when the restart happened and retrospectively adjusted Cove's starting rating upwards as they weren't catching up to their "true" rating fast enough ie they would be underdogs for a home match vs Airdrie or East Fife which shouldn't be the case 

edit: I feel obliged to point out I started doing this in 2013/14  as a "what amount of points should get you promoted / playoffs / safe", the fates of individual teams is kind of secondary and I certainly don't try and use it to beat the bookies or as a prediction tool- the first season I did it Hibs had a less than 5% change of being relegated at the split and that didn't turn out as expected...

FWIW at the restart the spreadsheet had 27 points as "getting top 5" 90%+ of the time and 22 points getting 8th or higher after 18 games 90% plus, so not too bad, it's since worked its way down to 21 for 8th. 

Makes sense. Ta. 

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