General Politics Thread

[Mark Connolly]

6 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

I would really like to see Angus Robertson get the First minister gig. Obviously he would need to win a seat somewhere but under Nicola I can only see the party continue to lose seats. She's very competent, but clearly not everyone's cup of tea.

Angus already being tipped as a possible candidate to challenge Ruth for Edinburgh Central. A win for him there would be some result!

 

She only has a majority of about 600, so it's not inconceivable.

Sadly she'd still probably get in on the list, it would be hilarious for them to go full noise on Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives, and then her not actually get elected.

[welshbairn]

8 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

I would really like to see Angus Robertson get the First minister gig. Obviously he would need to win a seat somewhere but under Nicola I can only see the party continue to lose seats. She's very competent, but clearly not everyone's cup of tea.

Angus already being tipped as a possible candidate to challenge Ruth for Edinburgh Central. A win for him there would be some result!

 

Angus Robertson as Westminster leader maybe. I just don't get the idea of getting rid of the most respected politician in the UK as FM, it's nuts.

[NotThePars]

I can’t fathom the mindset that thinks Angus Robertson or Joanna Cherry are more amenable figures to the public, or are more likely to win independence, than Sturgeon.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

I can’t fathom the mindset that thinks Angus Robertson or Joanna Cherry are more amenable figures to the public, or are more likely to win independence, than Sturgeon.

Correct. Robertson would likely claim back some ground in the North East but he won't press many buttons in the Central Belt, and that is exactly the territory the SNP must sandbag.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

She only has a majority of about 600, so it's not inconceivable.
Sadly she'd still probably get in on the list, it would be hilarious for them to go full noise on Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives, and then her not actually get elected.

It’s very much conceivable

I’m in Edinburgh Central. It’s a strange constituency taking in lots of very different neighbourhoods from Gorgie to the New Town to the university

Davidson got elected on 30% of the votes and nobody has got over 33% since the first Holyrood election in 1999. Whoever our next MSP is most of us won’t like them


It’s got a relatively large number of English people which makes it tougher for the SNP but it’s also one of the most cosmopolitan constituencies in Scotland so being associated with Brexit will be particularly toxic. The Liberals will surely hope to recover to some extent

The Greens got over 10% last time and a few years ago the Scottish Socialists had almost as respectable a showing back in 2003 so clearly this isn’t an easy place to predict

The Tories sent us some campaign literature trying to persuade us that this is a two horse race and only Ruth Davidson’s Tory party can beat the SNP here.


The net result in this house will probably be to persuade the labour leaning Mrs topcat to lend the SNP her vote.

[ICTJohnboy]

1 hour ago, NotThePars said:

I can’t fathom the mindset that thinks Angus Robertson or Joanna Cherry are more amenable figures to the public, or are more likely to win independence, than Sturgeon.

 

So how come the SNP, under Nicola, lost a third of all its seats at the 2017 election?

[topcat(The most tip top)]

Does it not also have a lot of EU citizens?

I thought that was covered under “cosmopolitan” but yes.

[UsedToGoToCentralPark]

Does it not also have a lot of EU citizens?

Vast majority of people in the area will be EU Citizens.

[welshbairn]

33 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

So how come the SNP, under Nicola, lost a third of all its seats at the 2017 election?

Little interest in yet another meaningless election for Scotland probably.

[ICTJohnboy]

10 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Little interest in yet another meaningless election for Scotland probably.

 

So might as well vote for Ruth?

[welshbairn]

8 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

So might as well vote for Ruth?

Whatever. You couldn't anyway.

[ICTJohnboy]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Whatever. You couldn't anyway.

 

Nor would I ever.

Perish the thought.

[JamieThomas]

1 hour ago, ICTJohnboy said:

So how come the SNP, under Nicola, lost a third of all its seats at the 2017 election?

Is this no a wee bit like ripping Guardiola if he only wins the league with 92 points next season?

Spoiler

I fucking love politics/football analogies

 

[BawWatchin]

1 hour ago, ICTJohnboy said:

So how come the SNP, under Nicola, lost a third of all its seats at the 2017 election?

Because not everybody that voted for the SNP in 2015 would normally do so. The SNP would have also lost a chunk of Brexit supporters from the 2015 vote in 2017. Now that brexit is looking increasingly more like a complete shitshow, those who deserted the SNP in 2017 are now coming back in their droves.

[HTG]

13 hours ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

So how come the SNP, under Nicola, lost a third of all its seats at the 2017 election?

Couple of rather obvious reasons. 

1. Those who supported independence came out in droves in 2015 to show they hadn't gone back in their box. 

2. Unionists may not have rushed out with the same enthusiasm. 

3. Unionists who did vote stuck with their party of choice.

This created an incredible swing to the SNP.  In 2017, from memory, the SNP did not make a massive deal about independence - a mistake perhaps. They tried to focus on the folly of Brexit. But back then, Teresa was still belting out the old Red, white and blue Brexit line and the people were disinclined to acknowledge the clusterfuck. On the other hand, Ruth Davidson focused almost exclusively on independence. 

The loss of seats was something of a natural adjustment based on how Scotland is split on the constitution. 

The shift back to the SNP will be because, other than the Greens, the 3 main parties couldn't give a f**k how badly Brexit hits Scotland as long as they remain tied to the larger neighbour. 

It's nothing to do with Sturgeon - she is an excellent FM and an outstanding politician. The unionist fraternity despise because she is so dangerous to them. 

[NotThePars]

The SNP didn't really have any sort of message in 2017 and were wrong-footed by the snap election. I don't know how Cherry or Robertson would've inspired the numbers that turned out in 2015 but maybe I'm missing their appeal.

[Lofarl]

Stick that snapchat filter in and Ruth turns into Euron Grayjoy

[Granny Danger]

2 hours ago, Lofarl said:

Stick that snapchat filter in and Ruth turns into Euron Grayjoy

She couldn’t kill Jamie Lannister with a tank.

 

[JamieThomas]

Ryan Edwards fresh out of Boombarbers imo

[welshbairn]

Out of nowhere, does anyone think that the Thalidomide, Watergate or the expenses scandal would have broken when they did, or at all, without a much maligned MSM? A frightening amount of people seem to take their "news" and form their opinions from random Youtubers, rather than hacks with some accountability to get the facts right. And I can't think of any big story that's been broken by "citizen journalists".  I'd be happy for someone to put me right on that. With an increasing number of people getting their information from random sources and unverified, it's no wonder that political discourse and a consensus at least on what the debate is about has fallen apart. 

Edited May 14, 2019 by welshbairn