Suspect Device Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 I notice that Boris is neck and neck with Corbyn in the betting for next PM at 6/1. What a choice. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 Everyone was saying Corbyn was done for as soon as the Tories elected a competent leader so I guess we should be lumping on Corbyn 6/1 then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brother Blades Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 I notice that Boris is neck and neck with Corbyn in the betting for next PM at 6/1. What a choice.Can’t really see Corbyn joining the conservatives tbh. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 It says it all about the modern Tory party that Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove are somehow two of the more palatable ones.The word on the street is that whilst Amber Rudd is unlikely to stand because she knows she wouldn’t win over their grass roots membership, she is a key kingmaker in determining who the unity candidate will be. Remainer MPs in Rudd’s faction have accepted that the next leader will be a Brexiteer, but are focusing their efforts on ensuring that said Brexiteer is a moderate centre-right MP who wouldn’t undo a lot of the modernisation that David Cameron brought to the party.In an ideal world this faction would like to prop up both of the candidates on the final ballot paper, but the chances are it’s going to be one Rudd backed candidate against someone from the right wing of the party. Michael Gove sounds like the tentative favourite to be the unity candidate with Sajid Javid, Liz Truss and Jeremy Hunt as dark horses. Boris Johnson has long been the favourite to be the more right wing candidate although former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab might have a chance to win over the ERG. Rudd and the other remainers would love to find a way to split their vote between Gove and another moderate Brexiteer in order to keep the ERG off the ballot altogether, because any ERG candidate is a dead cert to win the grassroots vote, but my gut feeling is that the ERG will manage to get their man on the ballot. The only question is whether that man is Boris or Raab. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inanimate Carbon Rod Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 It says it all about the modern Tory party that Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove are somehow two of the more palatable ones.The word on the street is that whilst Amber Rudd is unlikely to stand because she knows she wouldn’t win over their grass roots membership, she is a key kingmaker in determining who the unity candidate will be. Remainer MPs in Rudd’s faction have accepted that the next leader will be a Brexiteer, but are focusing their efforts on ensuring that said Brexiteer is a moderate centre-right MP who wouldn’t undo a lot of the modernisation that David Cameron brought to the party.In an ideal world this faction would like to prop up both of the candidates on the final ballot paper, but the chances are it’s going to be one Rudd backed candidate against someone from the right wing of the party. Michael Gove sounds like the tentative favourite to be the unity candidate with Sajid Javid, Liz Truss and Jeremy Hunt as dark horses. Boris Johnson has long been the favourite to be the more right wing candidate although former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab might have a chance to win over the ERG. Rudd and the other remainers would love to find a way to split their vote between Gove and another moderate Brexiteer in order to keep the ERG off the ballot altogether, because any ERG candidate is a dead cert to win the grassroots vote, but my gut feeling is that the ERG will manage to get their man on the ballot. The only question is whether that man is Boris or Raab. I struggle to equate any brexit tory as ‘centre right’ nor see how any brexit tory can be a candidate who ‘continues modernisation’. The idea that Gove is in some way anything other than a hard right troglodyte is just plain wrong. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said: I struggle to equate any brexit tory as ‘centre right’ nor see how any brexit tory can be a candidate who ‘continues modernisation’. The idea that Gove is in some way anything other than a hard right troglodyte is just plain wrong. Gove thinks he's a master manipulator so he's playing both sides at the moment. He always fucks it up though and looks like Gollum, and he shafted the Tory members' favourite Boris, so I think he's got no chance unless the remainer side see him as a tactical foil against Boris. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsedToGoToCentralPark Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 Prime Minister Gove? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 I struggle to equate any brexit tory as ‘centre right’ nor see how any brexit tory can be a candidate who ‘continues modernisation’. The idea that Gove is in some way anything other than a hard right troglodyte is just plain wrong. You can broadly fit the current crop of Tory MPs into three factionsThe first is the Amber Rudd faction of MPs who backed remain in the referendum and are still favouring a more soft Brexit although most have reluctantly backed May’s deal as a way of avoiding a no deal. They’re not popular amongst the grass roots so probably won’t bother putting up a candidate but will instead coalesce around a unity Brexiteer to try and avoid the more feared Brexiteers.Then you’ve got the biggest faction which are those closest to May. You can roughly split this faction into those who backed remain in the referendum but have since then accepted Brexit and are fairly comfortable with a relatively hard Brexit (including May herself) and those who have been Brexiteers all along who want a somewhat orderly Brexit (ie Gove, Javid)Then finally you’ve got the ERG types who have been Brexiteers since god was a lad and favour a clean break from Europe (JRM, Boris, David Davis etc)My point is that Gove belongs to group two as opposed to group 3. If any ERG candidates makes the final ballot paper they will win, so the question is whether the Amber Rudd group and the May loyalists can efficiently split the group to get two of their own on the ballot paper? The nightmare scenario for them would be that Gove hoovers up the vote and allows Boris to sneak onto the ballot paper with around 70 MPs, but it’ll be hard for them to manage the message around getting half to vote for Gove and the other half to vote for whoever the hell the other unity Brexiteer is 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 The remainers will bunch around someone like Hunt who's played it down the middle but give enough votes to a loser like Rabb to stop Boris or Gove coming second. That'll fail and Gove will come second. That will give the membership a problem, choose a candidate who stabbed your hero in the back or someone who schooled him on the Foreign Minister job (with a couple of exceptions, always good to remember the country your wife is from). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 It's Gove for me. We'll never get another chance to have a PM who managed to have a fivesome on the same night he was leathered by the Aberdeen casuals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 Scotland to lose to San Marino today, McLeish to get the sack, Prime Minister Michael Gove to assume the mantle of most hated Scotsman. SFA should give it Michael Gove till the end of the season.He’s Edinburgh born so wouldn’t get the Johnny Foreigner treatment from the tabloids, couldn’t possibly do a worse job than McLeish and getting him in to run the football team keeps him well away from the Brexit negotiations. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 On 3/21/2019 at 21:37, Granny Danger said: Names getting kicked about for PM if May goes; apparently Hunt is high on the list. How is that humanly possible? Whatever happened to that old Tory party rule that if a leader manages to survive a No Confidence vote, he/she is guaranteed a 1 year immunity from any further leadership challenges? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkst Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: Whatever happened to that old Tory party rule that if a leader manages to survive a No Confidence vote, he/she is guaranteed a 1 year immunity from any further leadership challenges? The leader can "resign" any time though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 23 minutes ago, Lurkst said: The leader can "resign" any time though. I think she might just put up a fight. Even if her cabinet and her party are revolting - and we've all known that for a long time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 I've seen a few rumours kicking about that May's entire cabinet might resign in protest if she doesn't quit. Excellent. She's going to be forced out in humiliation as the most incompetent and roundly mocked PMs in living memory. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alr Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, jupe1407 said: I've seen a few rumours kicking about that May's entire cabinet might resign in protest if she doesn't quit. Excellent. She's going to be forced out in humiliation as the most incompetent and roundly mocked PMs in living memory. But doesn't her entire cabinet include David Mundell? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brother Blades Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 But doesn't her entire cabinet include David Mundell? Brilliant! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 24, 2019 Author Share Posted March 24, 2019 1 hour ago, jupe1407 said: I've seen a few rumours kicking about that May's entire cabinet might resign in protest if she doesn't quit. Excellent. She's going to be forced out in humiliation as the most incompetent and roundly mocked PMs in living memory. That’s fine so long as her replacement isn’t a rabid Brexiteer. The default position is still leave on 11 April (or 29 March if the EU proposal has not yet been formally ratified). A new PM could just sit back and allow the default to happen. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsedToGoToCentralPark Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 That’s fine so long as her replacement isn’t a rabid Brexiteer. The default position is still leave on 11 April (or 29 March if the EU proposal has not yet been formally ratified). A new PM could just sit back and allow the default to happen. I've read that Gove isn't a rabid Brexiteer so could possibly appeal to everyone. Think he's probably the best choice as well. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, UsedToGoToCentralPark said: 13 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: That’s fine so long as her replacement isn’t a rabid Brexiteer. The default position is still leave on 11 April (or 29 March if the EU proposal has not yet been formally ratified). A new PM could just sit back and allow the default to happen. I've read that Gove isn't a rabid Brexiteer so could possibly appeal to everyone. Think he's probably the best choice as well. He was one of the leaders of the Leave campaign. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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