Ad Lib Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's about as relevant as the SNP "selling a message to the unwashed". BTW try not to answer questions with questions. The SNP are selling a message to the unwashed. Or are they not canvassing Parkhead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 A lot can happen in four months politically, so think there is a danger of complacency from the SNP.With the Corbyn/Dugdale duo leading Labour on the one hand and the Tories and Lib Dems still toxic for most people on the other, it's difficult to see what serious challenge could emerge at this point in the constituency section. Will be interesting to see how well the SNP vote holds up on the regional list as that's probably still the key to another stable outright majority and where there is the most scope for surprising things to happen due to a complacent campaign. I get the point that a lot of SNP supporters will feel this way and go SNP/SNP just to be safe, but I'll be surprised if they don't win a majority from the constituency vote alone. There are 73 constituencies and they need 65 for a majority - 66 taking an SNP Presiding Officer into account - there are some constituencies that'll be tight, but I can't see them failing to get more than 66 to be honest. They'll take every constituency in North East, Central, Glasgow, Lothian, Mid & Fife and West. The Lib Dems'll put up a fight for Orkney and Shetland but have no chance anywhere else. A few seats will be tight with the Tories in South but of the 3 constituencies they won in 2011 two had a majority under 1000. They'll probably hold Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire but the other two are going SNP. Labour are losing every constituency. I understand that SNP supporters don't want to take the risk of going elsewhere on the list then finding they don't win a majority on the constituencies. I also understand that even if they do you'd prefer a more comfortable majority with 78 MSPs rather than 70, and I fully appreciate the principle behind the 'vote for whoever you prefer, don't try to play the system' argument. However, it's more than just trying to play the D'Hondt system - it's about how you actually want the parliament to look. Obviously SNP members and supporters want a majority and are rightly confident of achieving it, but something that has come up time and time again in criticisms of Labour is that they're an absolutely useless opposition, and I think there's an acknowledgement that while you obviously want the SNP to succeed, having an effective opposition can be really beneficial for a governing party and stop complacency setting in at any point. In fairness the SNP have shown no signs of that but still, it's going to be a risk after 14 years of government by 2021, 10 of those with a majority. There's also the factor to consider if you're a left-leaning SNP supporter who would like to see them be a bit more radical that it might be beneficial to have a party to their left with a significant voice in parliament, rather than the SNP only having to defend themselves from criticism from the right, or just utterly unconstructive nonsense in Labour's case. If you don't have any sympathies for the left then fair enough, but if you do would it not be preferable to see the debate widened a bit to include more left-wing voices which could encourage the SNP to a bit less cautious when it comes to things like Land Value Tax replacing Council Tax, where their position essentially amounts to 'we think it's a good idea but it would be extremely controversial and the right would be absolutely seething so we're going to go for something less radical'? An effective opposition can be a good thing for a government and as funny as it is to watch Sturgeon running rings around Dugdale every week, it'd ultimately be a good thing for the SNP to have some effective opposition while still having a majority. We know Labour and the Tories can't deliver that while the Lib Dems are an irrelevance. You can vote SNP/SNP and ensure a larger majority than voting SNP/another, but you'll find yourself looking at the same ineffective opposition and the same absolutely dreadful attempts at debate, with Labour not winning a single constituency seat but still being the second largest party due to hoovering up the list vote. You can vote SNP/Green and still have an SNP majority while giving a platform to more left-wing voices. I reckon the Greens could ge t asecond seat in Lothian - would mean Andy Wightman in parliament which would be no bad thing. Aye, Lothian is the best chance of two seats. It'll be a challenge but it's doable. Another thing I forgot about this election: it will be hilarious when UKIP are utterly humiliated up here yet again. Interested to see if they can make progress on 2011 and actually get more votes than the Scottish Senior Citizen's Unity Party this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loondave1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 A bit like trying to encourage the electorate to vote for a pro-UK party by condemning those who vote for a pro-independence party as "unwashed"? (I thought the BritNats usually went for the "tartan tory pampering the middle classes" line).Fair enough.Seldom washed it is then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glenconner Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 So is the tactical voting campaign off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The SNP are selling a message to the unwashed. Or are they not canvassing Parkhead? And the mystery of the lost deposit deepens ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivo den Bieman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 great post, dunning1874 - very well put. another piece which will no doubt stir up the twitterati- Shhh for Indy on Bella Caledonia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 having an effective opposition can be really beneficial for a governing party and stop complacency setting in at any point. In fairness the SNP have shown no signs of that but still, it's going to be a risk after 14 years of government by 2021, 10 of those with a majority.Sorry this was mostly a good post but this by is total keich. "No signs" of complacency? They're littered with it."No crisis" in the oil industry? Exam presentations and passes down on the introduction of CfE? Playing catch-up to George Osborne on reform of property taxes? 9 years and counting to fix the council tax? Health service recruitment crisis in the North East? The SNP Government's record is full of complacency. It's been covered up with precisely the hysterical "both votes SNP" crowd whose argument really amounts to "haw Scottish Labour are shite" that you're criticising. You're one of the better and more thoughtful folk on the pro Indy side of the aisle but if *you* think that the SNP are showing "no signs" of complacency then I'm afraid you're living on another planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sorry this was mostly a good post but this by is total keich. "No signs" of complacency? They're littered with it. "No crisis" in the oil industry? Exam presentations and passes down on the introduction of CfE? Playing catch-up to George Osborne on reform of property taxes? 9 years and counting to fix the council tax? Health service recruitment crisis in the North East? The SNP Government's record is full of complacency. It's been covered up with precisely the hysterical "both votes SNP" crowd whose argument really amounts to "haw Scottish Labour are shite" that you're criticising. You're one of the better and more thoughtful folk on the pro Indy side of the aisle but if *you* think that the SNP are showing "no signs" of complacency then I'm afraid you're living on another planet. what hysterical about both votes SNP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I'm on the left politically, am critical of some aspects of the SNP governance in Scotland, and think an effective opposition is essential in a democracy. I still wouldn't vote for RISE and am not convinced to vote for the Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 SNP and SNP for me and that's the way it will always be until independence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sorry this was mostly a good post but this by is total keich. "No signs" of complacency? They're littered with it. "No crisis" in the oil industry? Exam presentations and passes down on the introduction of CfE? Playing catch-up to George Osborne on reform of property taxes? 9 years and counting to fix the council tax? Health service recruitment crisis in the North East? The SNP Government's record is full of complacency. It's been covered up with precisely the hysterical "both votes SNP" crowd whose argument really amounts to "haw Scottish Labour are shite" that you're criticising. Perhaps "few signs" would have been better wording than "no signs", as I'm sceptical that everything you've said there is the consequence of complacency. The "no crisis" comments I'll give you, but property taxes was simply a case of being outmanoeuvered. CfE & NHS Recruitment, yeah, arguably. Taking so long to come up with Council Tax reforms is I think far from complacency, it's down to a fear of being seen as too radical by coming up with a properly progressive replacement hence they've kept kicking the can down the road; if they were complacent about it they'd have charged in and reformed it as soon as they won a majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sorry this was mostly a good post but this by is total keich. "No signs" of complacency? They're littered with it. "No crisis" in the oil industry? Exam presentations and passes down on the introduction of CfE? Playing catch-up to George Osborne on reform of property taxes? 9 years and counting to fix the council tax? Health service recruitment crisis in the North East? The SNP Government's record is full of complacency. It's been covered up with precisely the hysterical "both votes SNP" crowd whose argument really amounts to "haw Scottish Labour are shite" that you're criticising. You're one of the better and more thoughtful folk on the pro Indy side of the aisle but if *you* think that the SNP are showing "no signs" of complacency then I'm afraid you're living on another planet. Both votes snp imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sorry this was mostly a good post but this by is total keich. "No signs" of complacency? They're littered with it. "No crisis" in the oil industry? Exam presentations and passes down on the introduction of CfE? Playing catch-up to George Osborne on reform of property taxes? 9 years and counting to fix the council tax? Health service recruitment crisis in the North East? The SNP Government's record is full of complacency. It's been covered up with precisely the hysterical "both votes SNP" crowd whose argument really amounts to "haw Scottish Labour are shite" that you're criticising. You're one of the better and more thoughtful folk on the pro Indy side of the aisle but if *you* think that the SNP are showing "no signs" of complacency then I'm afraid you're living on another planet. Not just Scottish Labour, the Lib Dems too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 what hysterical about both votes SNP? I mean the people who treat it like some sort of aberrational abdication of the Yes movement not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I mean the people who treat it like some sort of aberrational abdication of the Yes movement not to. Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I mean the people who treat it like some sort of aberrational abdication of the Yes movement not to. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I mean the people who treat it like some sort of aberrational abdication of the Yes movement not to. Aye fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The strategy of the Greens and a few other fringe parties was to take advantage of the second vote is for your second choice misconception that a lot of voters had in the first Holyrood election. The people who chose the d'Hondt system maybe even saw that confusion as a way to further disadvantage the SNP and secure a perpetual Lab-Lib Dem coalition. By the last two elections the message seemed to have got through to the voters that voting the same way twice is the normal thing to do under d'Hondt. This time around, if there is a general perception that the SNP is going to secure a majority on the constituency section, a significant number of Lab, Con and Lib Dem MSPs could lose their jobs if SNP voters drifted off to other pro-Yes groups in a tactical way. I'm skeptical that the constituency majority is secure enough for that to be a safe strategy given there will be anti-SNP tactical voting coming into play with websites advising No voters what to do, but it will be interesting to see how the electorate responds on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happysouth Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I assume all the other parties are telling people to vote for their party first vote and another party for the second vote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I assume all the other parties are telling people to vote for their party first vote and another party for the second vote? Exactly. Why the fuk would anyone who is a snp voter or member not vote SNP SNP. Fuk this tactical shit. Vote for who you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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