Oil Revenue Forecast

[AUFC90]

So the entire north sea oil industry is worth 130 million per year ?

:lol:

[Loondave1]

So, if I get you right, you think that the UK budget deficit is only £7 billion?

Let's see, shall we? Here's some back of a fag packet figures.

A quick google search shows that George Osbourne today increased his budget deficit forecast to 3.9% of GDP

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/osborne-increases-budget-deficit-forecast-130656781.html

The most recent figure in Wikipedia for UK GDP is $2.945 trillion (US Dollars)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom

That's around £1.95 trillion in sterling

3.9% of £1.95 trillion is roughly 76 billion. Try dividing that figure by your 55 million. Not a whole lot different from 7 billion divided by 5 million, is it?

You in fact get me wrong the gap is between the SNP forecast of oil revenues and the OBR forecast.Its a simple question as to how Swinney would have filled that glaring gap.Deflect away though.

[Double Jack D]

The unionist line of defending a situation which sees Scotland contribute £7bn to a UK wide annual deficit of circa £70bn, which has added to a cumulative UK debt of over £1.5trn but fail to acknowledge that our Scottish government balances its books every year is quite something to behold.

When you consider that a lot of them are actively critical of the Scottish Government not actually spending every penny they have (even though in the real world that would be blatantly impossible) takes it to a whole new level .

Yet we still hear a significant number of them claim that the SNP are the economically illiterate ones.

[Loondave1]

So the entire north sea oil industry is worth 130 million per year ?

:lol:

Its not about "turnover" its about "profit" which amazingly relates to what your final product is worth. If it doesn't cover the production costs the games a bogey.

[AUFC90]

Its not about "turnover" its about "profit" which amazingly relates to what your final product is worth. If it doesn't cover the production costs the games a bogey.

So all those oil companies are investing billions for practically nothing ?

You do realise that the oil industry is worth around 40 billion per annum with regards to income tax and technology exports. The oil industry saved the UK economy 6 months ago. What happened ?

[Fide]

Lets see who is right.

Certainly not the OBR anyway -

Since its creation in 2010, the OBR has projected long-term oil revenue figures of £131bn (2011), around £65bn (2012), £56bn (2013), £37bn (2014) and £2bn (2015).

[strichener]

Its not about "turnover" its about "profit" which amazingly relates to what your final product is worth. If it doesn't cover the production costs the games a bogey.

It is nothing to do with either. It is about tax revenue which takes into account production, tax credits and allowances but not downstream revenue and profit.

[Loondave1]

Certainly not the OBR anyway -

Since its creation in 2010, the OBR has projected long-term oil revenue figures of £131bn (2011), around £65bn (2012), £56bn (2013), £37bn (2014) and £2bn (2015).

They do appear to have it going in the right direction though.

[Loondave1]

Apparently 85% of oil firms anticipate "losses" will continue over next 6 months. Whatever can they mean by "losses" ??

[Fide]

They do appear to have it going in the right direction though.

Well that's one way of looking at it.

[AUFC90]

"What is the oil industry worth to the UK economy?

A report for the industry body Oil and Gas UK last year estimated the sector is worth about £35bn to the UK economy.

In 2012-13 the industry paid £6.5bn in taxes to the UK government.

Last year, investment of £14.4 billion was made in the industry on new projects and exploration, which was said to be the highest for 30 years.

Oil and Gas UK said there are more than 3,000 companies directly involved in the industry.

The sector employs 450,000 across the UK. The average salary in 2012 was £64,000 a year.

Oil and Gas UK said 330,000 other jobs are directly sustained by the industry with 207,000 people within the wider supply chain and a further 100,000 jobs supported by the economic activity created by employees' spending.

45% of jobs are based in Scotland21% are in south east England6% in north west England, 5% in the West Midlands5% in eastern England"

I'd rather have the full benefit of this massive economic resource used for Scotland. Servile britnats would rather a Tory chancellor looked after it for us.

[Fide]

Ah, but you have to remember - Scotland is unique in that having oil is bad.

SNPbad in fact.

[sergie's no1 fan]

Ah, but you have to remember - Scotland is unique in that having oil is bad.

SNPbad in fact.

It is such a hindrance to this tiny region. We can't be trusted to utilise it, I'd rather the English decide whats the best thing to do with the money, after all they have our best interest at heart.

[Antlion]

It is such a hindrance to this tiny region. We can't be trusted to utilise it, I'd rather the English decide whats the best thing to do with the money, after all they have our best interest at heart.

Vile divisive nationalist! You're not supposed to recognise that there are individual nations in this one nation state. Unless you're English, of course, then it's perfectly reasonable to pursue English votes for English laws, England having a northern powerhouse, England being a proud nation, etc.

[Thistle_do_nicely]

I may be wrong about this - but thinking about all the fixation on oil; if it's low (edit: the price of a barrel of crude oil, for clarification), doesn't that mean that it passes on some benefits to other industries?

Lower fuel costs presumably mean that bus firms, taxi firms etc. can either charge less to customers or have lowered their fuel expenses therefore are generating more profit before interest and tax; individuals are spending less on running their own cars for leisure/business use giving them more disposable cash to spend on other (taxable) goods; commercial freight businesses will surely be benefitting given how high fuel costs must be in their expenses...

I mean I don't have all that much understanding of how it all inter-relates (above my pay grade!) but is it a bit simplistic to just say "Tax receipts from oil are down! This is a disaster!"? edit: although having had a look in the thread, is it that proportionally losing a number of oil and gas jobs in Scotland outweighs any other benefits lower fuel costs bring?

[AUFC90]

I may be wrong about this - but thinking about all the fixation on oil; if it's low, doesn't that mean that it passes on some benefits to other industries?

Lower fuel costs presumably mean that bus firms, taxi firms etc. can either charge less to customers or have lowered their fuel expenses therefore are generating more profit before interest and tax; individuals are spending less on their own cars for leisure/business use giving them more to spend on other (taxable) goods; commercial freight businesses will surely be benefitting given how high fuel costs must be in their expenses...

I mean I don't have all that much understanding of how it all inter-relates (above my pay grade!) but is it a bit simplistic to just say "Tax receipts from oil are down! This is a disaster!"?

Its good for just about everyone bar oil workers and oil companies.

[doulikefish]

People do realise that if oils at 120 it still sells at about 70-80 usd a barrel and if its at 50 its going for about 60-70 usd?

[Ad Lib]

I may be wrong about this - but thinking about all the fixation on oil; if it's low (edit: the price of a barrel of crude oil, for clarification), doesn't that mean that it passes on some benefits to other industries?

Lower fuel costs presumably mean that bus firms, taxi firms etc. can either charge less to customers or have lowered their fuel expenses therefore are generating more profit before interest and tax; individuals are spending less on running their own cars for leisure/business use giving them more disposable cash to spend on other (taxable) goods; commercial freight businesses will surely be benefitting given how high fuel costs must be in their expenses...

I mean I don't have all that much understanding of how it all inter-relates (above my pay grade!) but is it a bit simplistic to just say "Tax receipts from oil are down! This is a disaster!"? edit: although having had a look in the thread, is it that proportionally losing a number of oil and gas jobs in Scotland outweighs any other benefits lower fuel costs bring?

Inelasticity of prices. Savings made by reduced oil prices aren't passed-on in full to consumers, usually because a lot of energy is bought as futures to protect against price shocks. Current per barrel prices seldom reflect what fuel costs, refined or unrefined, for those who consume it.

The problem is that because prices aren't perfectly responsive, any tentative gains in tax yield from additional consumer spending or reduced outlays for industry is more than wiped out by the concrete gains government makes from direct tax yield from oil producers.

Long-term, low oil prices are good for consumers and industry, but a total fucking disaster for producers of fossil fuels.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Certainly not the OBR anyway -

Since its creation in 2010, the OBR has projected long-term oil revenue figures of £131bn (2011), around £65bn (2012), £56bn (2013), £37bn (2014) and £2bn (2015).

Estimates of revenues from most sources have been way too optimistic - but that's not really the issue. Actual figures show that there has been a downward trend in revenues for the past 15 years as production has dropped - not surprising given that it is harder and more expensive to extract oil in deeper waters. I don't think any party is in a position to lecture - none of them have dealt with the issue.

[MassiveFanDan]

We have a choice. Should we trust the people who got their oil price projections wrong last year, or the people who have consistently and deliberately lied about oil revenues for the last 35?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4238744.stm