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Weekend 25th-27th


Anthony Fitzgerald

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Early start to this thread I know but looking for value already.

St Johnstone at home on Saturday against Dundee Utd you can get above evens. The home side have been a bit inconsistent in the league but their recent home record is good, and last nights victory should add to their confidence. Against a Utd team that played an extra 30 minutes last night against a league one outfit, which might be a disadvantage later on in the match.

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After a tremendous start to the season, I had an absolute nightmare last weekend with 6/6 losing singles! Hoping to get back on track this weekend.

Standouts for me this weekend are mainly in the English Premiership.

Stoke 10/11 draw no bet at home to Leicester - Stoke were one of my losers last Saturday but showed enough there to suggest to me that a first league win should arrive this weekend. There have been some mitigating circumstances as to why they have not one yet (tough fixtures, terrible referring, late goals etc) but Mark Hughes is an excellent Manager who has never completed a season in the top flight without finishing top 10. Although Shawcross continues to be a big miss at the back, in Bojan, Shaqiri, Arnautovic and Afellay they have genuine class going forward that I reckon will cause Bournemouth problems a plenty. To be honest, the match price of 17/10 jumped out at me crazily. At the start of the season the 10/11 draw no bet price might have expected to be the win odds. I have taken the latter with the extra security expecting to collect a profit but certainly not taking any loss.

Crystal Palace 23/20 draw no bet at Watford – Palace are also above 2/1 in the match odds – this is another price that stood out in a similar way to backing Palace at a similar price on the opening day at Norwich. Palace away form has been nothing short of outstanding since Pardew took over. They have the players and set up to be perfect away from home. Pace galore in Bolasie, Zaha, Sako to name just three not to mention the extra quality that Cabaye offers centrally. I would have to have Palace as favourites for this match so like with Stoke above, consider the prices on offer to represent excellent value.

I have also backed Clyde at 21/20 at home to Berwick. I was a bit sceptical of Clyde being made favourites for league 2 pre-season and still am to be honest. However, they have scored 7 goals in the last 2 home games and apparently were very unlucky to lose at East Fife last week. Berwick are on a bad run of late. I would say this price isn’t far off being correct but I just have a strong hunch that Clyde will win as despite Berwick having the Indian sign over them last term, personnel have changed greatly in the home ranks.

Other ones I am still deliberating over include:

Arsenal 17/20 at Leicester – Gunners have a superb away record generally and while Leicester have been a revelation under Ranieri, their fixture list up until now has been kind to them.

Man City 37/40 at Spurs – expect City to bounce back from the shock result last Saturday; Spurs look a solid outfit but City are superior and boast a superb head to head record in recent times.

Forfar 5/6 v Stranraer – Stranraer are in the doldrums under Brian Reid, short of confidence, ideas and pace and haven’t really made the opposition keeper work in the last 2 games against Stenhousemuir and Albion. Forfar are better than both these sides and strong at home. Stranraer have a very poor record on non-grass surfaces.

Ayr 19/20 v Peterhead – Ayr are in form and confident, they seem to have pace and a goal threat offensively but can do the ugly stuff defensively while Peterhead are on a poor run of results and their defence were appalling last week based on the Brechin highlights.

St Johnstone 5/4 v Dundee Utd – pressure remains on McNamara and you feel it’s “when” rather than “if” still, his press conference body language and noises to me are just of a man who needs to be relieved of his duties. Saints were excellent midweek, frustratingly for me having tipped them as my bet of the week at Kilmarnock last weekend. MacLean couldn’t play there though and Wright has an excellent record versus United.

Queen Park 7/5 at Stirling – I don’t rate Stirling at all while I think Queen Park will be right up there come the end of the season. Only concern is the silly suspension to the highly regarded striker, Duggan.

Arbroath 31/20 at East Stirling – 2 teams with contrasting form in the past fortnight; slight caution being that Shire defeated both East Fife and Annan on “home” soil.

Raith Rovers 11/10 v Dumbarton – Raith have opened the season very well under McKinnon while Dumbarton have went off the boil somewhat since their own dream start, possibly Aitken tinkering a bit too much? Not certain on this one but price seems more than fair?

Aberdeen 10/11 at Inverness – can they make it 9 in a row? The price is more than fair though the doubts may creep in after result and performance at Easter Road. Inverness have improved lately and are always a tough test.

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Fourteen home bets...

Man U (-1) v Sunderland

Stoke v Bournemouth

West Ham v Norwich

Small Heath v Rotherham

Sheff U v Doncaster

Shrewsbury v Blackpool

Oxford v Morecambe

Lincoln v Torquay

Celtic v Hearts

Hibs v St Mirren

Raith v Dumbarton

Dunfermline v Airdrie

Formantine v Gretna

Spartans v Coldstream

£2 pays £2,714.74.

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After putting a fairly risky acca and perms on LL teams outperforming their HL counterparts in the Scottish Cup (the Bookies expectations seemed lopsided), have gone conservative for me on Clyde, Annan, Birmingham City and Inverness City at 10/1 for the 4fold.

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