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When will indyref2 happen?

Indyref2  

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4 hours ago, Donathan said:

I’m becoming increasingly of the opinion that the only way Scotland can be independent is through the SNP exerting influence at WM in a future hung parliament situation.

We’ve seen with Catalonia that going down the route of an advisory referendum (or less likely a straight UDI by Holyrood) is not going to get the international community on side.

The only way Scotland can legally become independent is with the consent of WM and it’s very clear that the current Tory government have absolutely no intention of providing that. I doubt even a Labour majority government would do so either. Scotland just needs to keep voting SNP and hope that the balance of power falls in such a way that they can use a referendum as a bargaining chip.

That sounds grim 

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But yet Malky the economic genius predicts rate rises just a few posts back. We are YEARS away from any situation where rates will be raised to combat inflation, possibly a generation away to use his own vernacular.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/12/uk-interest-rate-cut-looms-larger-as-latest-policymaker-backs-move

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1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Let's just summarise this.
Malky the Scottish Hater

I find it hard to believe that people are actually arguing with this obvious troll and the lying garbage that he posts. 

It's the classic SiU tactic for years now, fill social media.....newspaper forums, discussion boards etc.....with as much white noise as possible. It doesn't matter how ridiculous it is, how much of a lie it is, how poisonous it is.....just fill social media with this constant 'SNP baaaaaad' garbage and they feel their job is done.

I'll guarantee you that this fanatic is on places like The Scotsman, day in, day out, filling the forums with anti-independence hate and drivel.

Honestly, just put him on ignore and don't reply to him. He'll hate it. 

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I’m not confident we’d win an indyref next year. Boris should have gambled and grant it. He’s just delayed the inevitable for me now.

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This is a good point

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Imagine he had gambled it. I reckon they’d have probably won on sheer baws oot shock. As it is, relying on legalism and by-your-logic debate to convince someone who doesn’t give a shit about either should get us there eventually.

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6 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

This is a good point
 

Agreed - they need to work up momentum for independence from Johnson and co, and you don’t get that from periods of acceptance and waiting. One would hope that they’ve something up their sleeves re the end of January being England and Wales’ enforced Brexit - but I suspect there isn’t really a game plan here.

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17 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

This is a good point
 

Not really.  This is the first time the Government has formally refused a Section 30 so pretending that it's a "constant cycle" is disingenuous, to say the least.

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Not really.  This is the first time the Government has formally refused a Section 30 so pretending that it's a "constant cycle" is disingenuous, to say the least.

It's the second time it's been refused, formally or otherwise. For a leadership under pressure to have a plan B, to say you anticipated this and then not react immediately seems weak to me.

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CH4 News there...devoting all of 60 seconds to Johnson's refusal of a Section 30 Order with no comment from any SNP politician but affording Gove the final say.

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Queue Slab coming out with they'll support a second ref if third option of devosuperunitedkingdomnightmare added to the ballot. 

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18 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Dickie Leonard responseIMG_20200114_192934.jpeg

Tricky Dickie on another rehashed 'federalism' trip.

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Just now, MixuFixit said:


It's the second time it's been refused, formally or otherwise. For a leadership under pressure to have a plan B, to say you anticipated this and then not react immediately seems weak to me.

Nope.  It hasn't been formally requested - Nicola Sturgeon requested talks on implementing a section 30 and May never replied other than "Now is not the time" soundbites. My guess is that plan B kicks in when we're officially removed from the EU, which is why they waited so long to request the S30. The constant delays to that make it look like the Scottish Government is twiddling it's thumbs. That's my theory, anyway.

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Nope.  It hasn't been formally requested - Nicola Sturgeon requested talks on implementing a section 30 and May never replied other than "Now is not the time" soundbites. My guess is that plan B kicks in when we're officially removed from the EU, which is why they waited so long to request the S30. The constant delays to that make it look like the Scottish Government is twiddling it's thumbs. That's my theory, anyway.

Hmm mebbe, mebbe. Hadn't thought of that.

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3 hours ago, Rodhull said:

Still true more than a year later.

His view? 

Really.

Here's page 1 of the White Paper produced by the SNP to lay out their plans for an Independent Scotland

image.thumb.png.9e1825cdcadaafbe7d8fc3b05843ba6d.png

 

Let's try this another way. The SNP claim that there was a fundamental change in the offering from the Union with regard to the EU. But lets say the SNP had succeeded in 2014 in winning a Yes vote on the back of this White Paper. Would they be keen to allow Unionists a second referendum on the back of the realisation that the Oil Tax Revenue figures were a pile of shite, that arguments that Scotland would have everything we were used to but a lower tax rate was fantasist shite, and that the prospect of an open border with England - as promised - was going to be denied to us as England left the EU and we remained (like Ireland) 

Edited by Malky3

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Is toil leam sin glè mòr



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6 hours ago, Malky3 said:

Well obviously - in a General Election only the number of seats matter. And in this case the Conservatives won by a landslide while the SNP started off with no prospect of winning and no prospect of every achieving anything they were promising - like stopping Boris or stopping Brexit. 

I feel sorry for those 1.2m Scots who completely wasted their vote in December. Nicola Sturgeon has completely let them down. 

However in any referendum it's the total number of votes that matter - and again in December we saw that Scottish Independence couldn't get a majority, whilst % support for Unionism was much the same as it was in 2014 whilst the actual number of votes supporting Scottish Independence had fallen through the floor. 

We weren't voting for independence in December.

Plenty of Labour, Libdem, Greens and Tories voters support independence but voted for their parties in December.

Also quite a few SNP voters don't support independence.

Indy supporters and unionists appear in all parties.

Don't get me wrong, Yes has nowhere near the numbers required to succeed but there's no way to say what the Indyref2 intentions are by looking at what happened in December.

I know that you know this because you're not daft.

Edited by oaksoft

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