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When will indyref2 happen?

Indyref2  

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I’m becoming increasingly of the opinion that the only way Scotland can be independent is through the SNP exerting influence at WM in a future hung parliament situation.

We’ve seen with Catalonia that going down the route of an advisory referendum (or less likely a straight UDI by Holyrood) is not going to get the international community on side.

The only way Scotland can legally become independent is with the consent of WM and it’s very clear that the current Tory government have absolutely no intention of providing that. I doubt even a Labour majority government would do so either. Scotland just needs to keep voting SNP and hope that the balance of power falls in such a way that they can use a referendum as a bargaining chip.

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1 minute ago, Malky3 said:

And what happens if the UK economy actually continues to grow and to hold up well as it has done since the EU referendum in 2016?

To date there has been little sign of the doomsday scenario that was being painted by George Osbourne and David Cameron prior to the vote. There's also little logic in thinking that the economy is likely to stagnate when it didn't through the worst periods of political instability over the last two years. Will we perhaps all wake up to the fact that politics isn't as all powerful and as important as people are making out - and that instead what is required is stability so that business can get on with doing what it does best - generating profit, jobs and revenue for the UK economy.

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image.png.1a323c5b4b1ddc5d3bb928b448e97f5b.png

Of course, devaluing your currency isn't always a bad thing, at least not for everyone...

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1 minute ago, Ross. said:

image.png.ebf924ad4980c4be5db3aa1f6031a80b.png

image.png.67f40b7acde586b26e90a34ec1f1b23a.png

image.png.e32b1118282d84b731c0c8c1b2c6871d.png

image.png.1a323c5b4b1ddc5d3bb928b448e97f5b.png

Of course, devaluing your currency isn't always a bad thing, at least not for everyone...

Japan did this for decades to aid their export market.

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Just now, sjc said:

Japan did this for decades to aid their export market.

Japan was able to simply due to the size and scale of it's export market relative to the rest of it's GDP.

This article gives a fairly decent  explanation of some of the issues the UK has faced and still does: https://www.ft.com/content/615ae7ba-b2b8-11e9-bec9-fdcab53d6959

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9 minutes ago, Ross. said:

Japan was able to simply due to the size and scale of it's export market relative to the rest of it's GDP.

This article gives a fairly decent  explanation of some of the issues the UK has faced and still does: https://www.ft.com/content/615ae7ba-b2b8-11e9-bec9-fdcab53d6959

The problem with a devaluing currency is when other Countries stop buying your treasury bonds (debt) and actively start selling their reserves of your currency. A flood of money ends up back in circulation and compounds devaluation with inflation.

Edited by sjc

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8 minutes ago, sjc said:

The problem with a devaluing currency is when other Countries stop buying your treasury bonds (debt) and actively start selling their reserves of your currency. A flood of money ends up back in circulation and impounds devaluation with inflation.

It only holds value for as long as people believe it has value. GBP is slowly idling towards the point where it's seen as something akin to toilet paper. The drop in the pound hasn't led to a corresponding rise in manufacturing output and exports. They plan on devaluing again this year through another round of QE. If that is unsuccessful in terms of stimulating the economy, what next?

Edited by Ross.

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Just now, Ross. said:

It only holds value for as long as people believe it has value. GBP is slowly idling towards the point where it's seen as something akin to toilet paper. The drop in the pound hasn't led to a corresponding rise in manufacturing or exports. They plan on devaluing again this year through another round of QE. If that is unsuccessful in terms of stimulating the economy, what next?

I wonder where it's all going tbh. Particularly with the US Dollar. They've been QEing enormously again since September last year. I noticed that China and Japan aren't buying as much of their treasury bonds now and have even started dumping them. It's tying to crude oil is the only thing that keeps it afloat imo.

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5 minutes ago, sjc said:

I wonder where it's all going tbh. Particularly with the US Dollar. They've been QEing enormously again since September last year. I noticed that China and Japan aren't buying as much of their treasury bonds now and have even started dumping them. It's tying to crude oil is the only thing that keeps it afloat imo.

The whole fracking thing in the US seemed to help prop things up for a bit but that's not looking good long term as far as I can see. Probably a good part of the reason that the recent hostilities in Iran kicked off in the way they did.

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2 hours ago, Ross. said:

image.png.ebf924ad4980c4be5db3aa1f6031a80b.png

image.png.67f40b7acde586b26e90a34ec1f1b23a.png

image.png.e32b1118282d84b731c0c8c1b2c6871d.png

image.png.1a323c5b4b1ddc5d3bb928b448e97f5b.png

Of course, devaluing your currency isn't always a bad thing, at least not for everyone...

Of course it's not. I'm not sure what you are trying to prove here? The UK economy continues to be one of the richest in the world. The economy has continued to grow defying predictions of extreme doom and gloom by both the Prime Minister and his Chancellor at that time of the referendum. And we have record levels of employment all around the UK. Many economic experts predicted a rocky road after the Brexit referendum outcome, and yet despite all of the political instability and uncertainty which would have undoubtedly prevented businesses from investing in the UK all our vital signs remain extremely positive. 

I predict that growth will start to accelerate in the UK economy as stability and certainty returns and as it does interest rates will probably rise to control inflation - and as we know with interest rate rises comes a strengthening in the value of the £ in the currency market. 

What your graphs show is the benefit to the UK economy of being able to use quantitative easing and controlling our own interest rates to negate downward fiscal pressures. Something we wouldn't have had complete control of had we joined the Euro - like Greece or Ireland - and indeed something that an Independent Scotland wouldn't be able to control if sought to use Sterlingisation as was proposed in the SNP's White Paper document from 2014. 

Edited by Malky3

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2 hours ago, Mastermind said:

 


Once things have stabilised post-Brexit I can’t see the sensible majority wanting to enter yet another mammoth, messy divorce lasting a number of years. The games a bogey I’m afraid.

 

I agree. 

There is no doubt whatsoever that the SNP's repeated agitation for Independence and political instability has driven away foreign investment in Scotland. Scottish growth has been more sluggish than in other areas across the UK which shows that foreign companies still see other parts of the UK as a better bet than Scotland. Even in Scotland we have major corporate bodies telling us openly that if Scotland becomes Independent they would HAVE to move their HQ to England just for their own security - companies like RBS. Yet still the Nationalists want to continue to damage the economy of the country they profess to love and the earning potential of the people they profess to represent. 

You are right - and I think this is why there is a such a desperate push right now by the SNP to try to get an Independence Referendum right now before the UK does finally leave the EU. Once that happens the prospect of Scottish Independence will be long behind us. 

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all these debates about the rights and wrong of Scotland being independent are all irrelevant when the people don't even have the right to decide it one way or the other until we're all dead - and that's not even sure.

What a state of affairs to be in.  

I don't believe a single unionist would have put that argument forward pre-Sept 2014 - yet here we are.

Edited by tirso

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2 minutes ago, tirso said:

all these debates about the rights and wrong of Scotland being independent are all irrelevant when the people don't even have the right to decide it one way or the other until we're all dead - and that's not even sure.

What a state of affairs to be in.  

I don't believe a single unionist would have put that argument forward pre-Sept 2014 - yet here we are.

Scots got the right to decide in 2014 - and voted no in a "once in a generation referendum". 

It's entirely correct and consistent to follow the outcome of the referendum and to refuse further taxpayer expenditure on endless replays demanded by Nationalists in the hope that one day one of the votes might actually go their way. 

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10 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

I agree. 

There is no doubt whatsoever that the SNP's repeated agitation for Independence and political instability has driven away foreign investment in Scotland. Scottish growth has been more sluggish than in other areas across the UK which shows that foreign companies still see other parts of the UK as a better bet than Scotland. Even in Scotland we have major corporate bodies telling us openly that if Scotland becomes Independent they would HAVE to move their HQ to England just for their own security - companies like RBS. Yet still the Nationalists want to continue to damage the economy of the country they profess to love and the earning potential of the people they profess to represent. 

You are right - and I think this is why there is a such a desperate push right now by the SNP to try to get an Independence Referendum right now before the UK does finally leave the EU. Once that happens the prospect of Scottish Independence will be long behind us. 

haha. Malky and Mintermind. The Cannon and Ball of the P&B. 

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6 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

Scots got the right to decide in 2014 - and voted no in a "once in a generation referendum". 

It's entirely correct and consistent to follow the outcome of the referendum and to refuse further taxpayer expenditure on endless replays demanded by Nationalists in the hope that one day one of the votes might actually go their way. 

Where does it say this in the Smith commission, Manky?

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Can you give a comparison for the cost of an Independence referendum, compared to a GE ? FTPA appeared to restrict them to once every 5 years. That was dismissed when it suited.
Is that cost justified?

Scots got the right to decide in 2014 - and voted no in a "once in a generation referendum". 
It's entirely correct and consistent to follow the outcome of the referendum and to refuse further taxpayer expenditure on endless replays demanded by Nationalists in the hope that one day one of the votes might actually go their way. 

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2 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

Scots got the right to decide in 2014 - and voted no in a "once in a generation referendum". 

It's entirely correct and consistent to follow the outcome of the referendum and to refuse further taxpayer expenditure on endless replays demanded by Nationalists in the hope that one day one of the votes might actually go their way. 

Immediately after the vote, the Unionist parties literally say there's nothing to stop the Scottish people deciding on this again in the Smith commission.

Ruth Davidson herself said the UK government shouldn't block a majority mandate for another vote IF the people vote for it.

That's the climate well after 2014 never mind before it when it was all "best of both worlds,."

This idea people voted to abolish their right to choose is pure recent revisionism which they know fine well.  It's a fantasy.

In all normal circumstances, it probably would have been once in a generation.  I agree results should be respected.  You'd have to be a moon dweller not to see there's been a material change.  I don't believe the No vote is being particularly respected by Unionists.  It was a union we voted for.  

Ultimately no referendum will be foisted upon an unwilling nation.  All that's being asked is the ability to have one if the Scottish people want one.  Do you not agree with that principle?  If not, it's not a union we live in anymore.  

 

 

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Imagine actually wanting the Tories to deny a mandate earned multiple times. How much must someone hate Scotland to actually want the country pissed on to that level.

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22 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

Scots got the right to decide in 2014 - and voted no in a "once in a generation referendum". 

It's entirely correct and consistent to follow the outcome of the referendum and to refuse further taxpayer expenditure on endless replays demanded by Nationalists in the hope that one day one of the votes might actually go their way. 

Still true more than a year later.

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Imagine actually wanting the Tories to deny a mandate earned multiple times. How much must someone hate Scotland to actually want the country pissed on to that level.
Let's just summarise this.
Malky the Scottish Hater

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Just now, John Lambies Doos said:

Let's just summarise this.
Malky the Scottish Hater

If it were just him, I'd pay no attention because he's not worth paying attention to, but it's more than that.

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