When will indyref2 happen?

[John Lambies Doos]

Ok - I know you are really stupid so I'll try again. Please read this in the tone of a really bored primary school teacher who has taught this lesson many, many times and gone over it with you to the point where she has written you off. 
The sum is simple. 
First you get all of Scotlands revenue and you add it together to get the total. 
Then you subtract from that all of the expenditure. 
And from that simple sum you get the Net Fiscal Balance, as is shown in the table. 
It's really basic stuff. 

Ah but you see it doesn't actually work like that, borrowing is proportionally distributed across the UK based on population groups. Strip it away and Scotland, after London is the most viable. Now imagine Scotland had the full gambit of economic levers Inc corporation tax , coupled with unfettered access to the EU as a central hub. Not including the EU grants, oh let's throw them in plus a sea..a big one at that of oil, and a wind/sea generating coastline that would make ones eyes water.
Yes Malky, I give you the future.....

[DeeTillEhDeh]

People who use GERS to back up their argument are economic illiterates.

 

GERS is an accounting exercise that is inherently flawed - do people honestly believe that the only part of the UK not in deficit is London?

 

It underestimates revenues for Scotland (and the regions outside London) whilst deliberately overallocating expenditure to Scotland (and the regions) for expenditure that either does not benefit Scotland (or the regions) or would not be undertaken in an iScotland.

 

I've long been a critic of the whole GERS methodology - even in my pre-independence days - by continually showing Scotland to be an economic basketcase they are actually undermining the case for the union on two fronts.

 

Firstly, people are now seeing what a ludicrous joke the whole exercise is - does 8.2% of the population really gernerare 61% of the UK deficit? There's lying and there's taking the piss - and GERS is one big piss-take.

 

Secondly, and more crucially, even if these figures are taken at face value, they show that Scotland is not benefiting from the Union - why the hell should we trust Westminster to run our economic affairs if they've done so badly?

 

 

 

[John Lambies Doos]

People who use GERS to back up their argument are economic illiterates.
 

Malky does

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Malky does

As I said, an economic illiterate.

[John Lambies Doos]

As I said, an economic illiterate.

Point of my post

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

18 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

People who use GERS to back up their argument are economic illiterates.

 

GERS is an accounting exercise that is inherently flawed - do people honestly believe that the only part of the UK not in deficit is London?

 

It underestimates revenues for Scotland (and the regions outside London) whilst deliberately overallocating expenditure to Scotland (and the regions) for expenditure that either does not benefit Scotland (or the regions) or would not be undertaken in an iScotland.

 

I've long been a critic of the whole GERS methodology - even in my pre-independence days - by continually showing Scotland to be an economic basketcase they are actually undermining the case for the union on two fronts.

 

Firstly, people are now seeing what a ludicrous joke the whole exercise is - does 8.2% of the population really gernerare 61% of the UK deficit? There's lying and there's taking the piss - and GERS is one big piss-take.

 

Secondly, and more crucially, even if these figures are taken at face value, they show that Scotland is not benefiting from the Union - why the hell should we trust Westminster to run our economic affairs if they've done so badly?

 

 

 

I've got a great accounting trick that I can't be fucked going over on here because it will take too long. It's great though. It highlights that Scotland is a massive taker and England looks after us through awesome benevolence. f**k it, here goes (let's say Barnett consequentials and split of debt of 10%):

England borrows £20billion for a project.

England Asset: £20billion, England debt £18b, Scotland Asset 0, Scotland Debt £2b.

Scotland gets its 10%: England Asset £18b, England Debt £18b, Scotland Asset £2b, Scotland debt £2b.

Everything is fine and correct, yes? I would say so.

All well and good, but there is one missing part of the story. Apparently England is funding Scotland to the tune of £2billion, because it has transferred that money to Scotland. Think about that.

Basically everything England borrows involves them "donating" money to Scotland. They could borrow anything and we take a "subsidy" on the back of it.

I'd happily take a critique on that but I'm fairly sure it is all above board.

 

Edited December 22, 2019 by Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo

[Malky3]

44 minutes ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said:

If it is that simple you can put a figure on how much the SNP raises in revenue? Again, a wee link. A wee quote. Be specific.

Fucking hell - it's in the GERs Report. Read it yourself. 

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

Just now, Malky3 said:

Fucking hell - it's in the GERs Report. Read it yourself. 

Point out the part where the revenue raised by the SNP is. Basic stuff. Should be easy to find.

[Malky3]

22 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

People who use GERS to back up their argument are economic illiterates.

 

GERS is an accounting exercise that is inherently flawed - do people honestly believe that the only part of the UK not in deficit is London?

 

It underestimates revenues for Scotland (and the regions outside London) whilst deliberately overallocating expenditure to Scotland (and the regions) for expenditure that either does not benefit Scotland (or the regions) or would not be undertaken in an iScotland.

 

I've long been a critic of the whole GERS methodology - even in my pre-independence days - by continually showing Scotland to be an economic basketcase they are actually undermining the case for the union on two fronts.

 

Firstly, people are now seeing what a ludicrous joke the whole exercise is - does 8.2% of the population really gernerare 61% of the UK deficit? There's lying and there's taking the piss - and GERS is one big piss-take.

 

Secondly, and more crucially, even if these figures are taken at face value, they show that Scotland is not benefiting from the Union - why the hell should we trust Westminster to run our economic affairs if they've done so badly?

 

 

 

Ah oK. Those who use the GERS reports are economic illiterates. That'll be like Nicola Sturgeon in the National article. Derek MacKay in numerous articles, and Alex Salmond who used in the run up to the 2014 referendum as proof Scotland would be able to hold it's own. 

There we have it folks. The Nationalists think their leadership are economically illiterate, and that all Scotlands government financial advisors, actuaries are analysts are all doing a useless paper excersize. 

 

Edited December 22, 2019 by Malky3

[DeeTillEhDeh]

 

 

 

Ah oK. Those who use the GERS reports are economic illiterates. That'll be like Nicola Sturgeon in the National article. Derek MacKay in numerous articles, and Alex Salmond who used in the run up to the 2014 referendum as proof Scotland would be able to hold it's own. 

There we have it folks. The Nationalists think their leadership are economically illiterate, and that all Scotlands government financial advisors, actuaries are analysts are all doing a useless paper excersize. 

 

 

Tell me the exact quotes where they agreed with the deficit figure.

 

I think you will find that any use of GERS was for predictions regards oil revenues. I actually was critical of that approach at the time - ONS can't even make an accurate prediction from one year to the next never mind a long-term forecast.

 

If the ONS can get that so wrong then I don't particularly trust them to get their other guestimates (and that's what they are) right either.

 

Anyone who is carrying out economic analysis certainly wouldn't look at this in isolation (as you do) but at a whole array of data.

 

I see it as a political tool not an economic one - on the one hand we have Unionists quoting the deficit figure whilst the Scottish Government will point to the fall in that deficit figure as being good.

 

Irrespective of one's views on independence it does no-one any favours to not have an accurate picture of Scotland's economy - how an earth can any government be expected to deal with structural deficiencies in the economy if they either don't trust the figures or the figures hide what is really happening.

 

[git-intae-thum]

Can only be arsed replying to the Malky3bot with a cut and paste.

SIU really need to give it a software update.

This often disproved GERs deficit patter is boring.

Right wing unionist think tank

- Fraser of Allander:

“It is always important to remember that GERS takes the current structure of UK Government reserved taxation and spending as given. If the very purpose of independence is to take different choices about the type of economy and society that we live in, then a set of accounts based upon the current constitutional settlement and policy priorities will tell us little about the long-term finances of an independent Scotland.”

Institute of Fiscal Studies also concur that the figures are not designed to represent the economy of an independent Scotland.

Edited December 22, 2019 by git-intae-thum

[git-intae-thum]

Basically anyone continually spouting off crap about a 12.6 billion deficit is a slavering fool. Even Tory think tanks agree

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Can only be arsed replying to the Malky3bot with a cut and paste.
SIU really need to give it a software update.
This often disproved GERs deficit patter is boring.
Right wing unionist think tank

- Fraser of Allander:

“It is always important to remember that GERS takes the current structure of UK Government reserved taxation and spending as given. If the very purpose of independence is to take different choices about the type of economy and society that we live in, then a set of accounts based upon the current constitutional settlement and policy priorities will tell us little about the long-term finances of an independent Scotland.”

Institute of Fiscal Studies also concur that the figures are not designed to represent the economy of an independent Scotland.

The point I have been making.

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

Fraser Of Allander KLAXON.

[git-intae-thum]

1 hour ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said:

I've got a great accounting trick that I can't be fucked going over on here because it will take too long. It's great though. It highlights that Scotland is a massive taker and England looks after us through awesome benevolence. f**k it, here goes (let's say Barnett consequentials and split of debt of 10%):

England borrows £20billion for a project.

England Asset: £20billion, England debt £18b, Scotland Asset 0, Scotland Debt £2b.

Scotland gets its 10%: England Asset £18b, England Debt £18b, Scotland Asset £2b, Scotland debt £2b.

Everything is fine and correct, yes? I would say so.

All well and good, but there is one missing part of the story. Apparently England is funding Scotland to the tune of £2billion, because it has transferred that money to Scotland. Think about that.

Basically everything England borrows involves them "donating" money to Scotland. They could borrow anything and we take a "subsidy" on the back of it.

I'd happily take a critique on that but I'm fairly sure it is all above board.

 

You should also quote the tax revenue that the English economy generates from that 20 billion borrow and spend.

That revenue multiplies as it filters down the whole secondary and service supply chain.

Flippin hell the English economy is looking good.

Percentage of that revenue that is then assigned back to the Scottish revenue take for the purpose of truthful accounting.......

= 0

Welcome to GERs.

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

4 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

You should also quote the tax revenue that the English economy generates from that 20 billion borrow and spend.

That revenue multiplies as it filters down the whole secondary and service supply chain.

Flippin hell the English economy is looking good.

Percentage of that revenue that is then assigned back to the Scottish revenue take for the purpose of truthful accounting.......

= 0

Welcome to GERs.

It is awesome to think that the multiplier effect of the entire nation sending its money to London for redistribution makes Scotland a financial basket case. And we fall for it.

[Malky3]

5 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

 

 

 

 

 

Tell me the exact quotes where they agreed with the deficit figure.

 

I think you will find that any use of GERS was for predictions regards oil revenues. I actually was critical of that approach at the time - ONS can't even make an accurate prediction from one year to the next never mind a long-term forecast.

 

If the ONS can get that so wrong then I don't particularly trust them to get their other guestimates (and that's what they are) right either.

 

Anyone who is carrying out economic analysis certainly wouldn't look at this in isolation (as you do) but at a whole array of data.

 

I see it as a political tool not an economic one - on the one hand we have Unionists quoting the deficit figure whilst the Scottish Government will point to the fall in that deficit figure as being good.

 

Irrespective of one's views on independence it does no-one any favours to not have an accurate picture of Scotland's economy - how an earth can any government be expected to deal with structural deficiencies in the economy if they either don't trust the figures or the figures hide what is really happening.

 

The White Paper of 2013 - the SNP says "the GERs Report is the authorative publication of Scotlands public finances". 

Derek MacKay 2019 whilst presenting the report said the GERs Report was a fair reflection of Scotlands public finances as he hailed the reduction in the size of the spending deficit. 

You 2019 whilst struggling to defend how Scotland will cope if the tap from London and the South East was turned off tell us all its a shite report, a waste of time paper excersize published by the Scottish Government because our financial analysts have got time to waste dreaming up figures. 

Nationalists should NEVER be trusted

[Malky3]

4 hours ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said:

It is awesome to think that the multiplier effect of the entire nation sending its money to London for redistribution makes Scotland a financial basket case. And we fall for it.

Scotland isn't an economic basket case. Thats a very unpatriotic veiw to take. Scotland is infact hugely successful as part of the United Kingdom where the strength of the UK economy is pooled and shared. 

Where it completely fucks the Nationalists cause is that the Scottish Government is wholly reliant on the income we get from the Barnett Formula to the tune of £12.6Bn per annum. To put that into context the size of the entire Scottish NHS budget is £14Bn. 

[MONKMAN]

I used to think he was a troll but he’s not, he’s just monumentally stupid. Please stop quoting him.
For the record;

Malky is a liar.
Malky is a simpleton.

ETA... His continued assertion that the Scottish Government spends 12.6 billion more than it generates is lies, he knows it's lies, yet he continues to peddle the same shit over and over again and people still argue with him about it.

Edited December 22, 2019 by MONKMAN

[dirty dingus]

26 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

Scotland isn't an economic basket case. Thats a very unpatriotic veiw to take. Scotland is infact hugely successful as part of the United Kingdom where the strength of the UK economy is pooled and shared. 

Where it completely fucks the Nationalists cause is that the Scottish Government is wholly reliant on the income we get from the Barnett Formula to the tune of £12.6Bn per annum. To put that into context the size of the entire Scottish NHS budget is £14Bn. 

Manky calm doon, away and have a w**k over yer boss