When will indyref2 happen?

[TheScarf]

Shocked that Malky, someone clearly over 50 as he has grandkids, doesn't want independence. 

[Kejan]

2 hours ago, Brother Blades said:

Guy on my FB, previously a staunch unionist has now said he’d vote Yes in IndyRef2, it’s happening lads.

It certainly is. I know someone like that - all means feck all ; anecdotes etc- but that's two. The guy I know (think I wrote about him in one of these threads) honestly was a mind blown basically a mini Ruth Davidson in 2017 and he's now ''if we f**k it up, we do it ourselves ; let's not these arseholes do it for us in Westminster.''

Even Magyar seems to have his road to Damascus moment here.

 

[Crùbag]

17 hours ago, Malky3 said:

Aye - HOMES! 

That conveniently forgets about industrial usage, transport, infrastructure etc. 

True but hardly insignificant. As technology improves and other renewables increasingly play their part, we'll be selling our clean energy to others.

[Malky3]

5 hours ago, git-intae-thum said:

I wish the dafties would stop harping on about Scotland having a deficit. It does not.

Scotland in union runs at a notional deficit. 

GERs is meant to represent Scotland in union. Not an independent Scotland. When these figures are bad. They are bad for Scotland in union. Bad for the union.

The GERs opening blurb is very specific on this distinction. As are commentators such as F of A.

We give our money to Westminster, get charged for loads a shite we do not want or need......pay massive debt interest due to UK financial incompetence.....and then only get a bit back to run the services our country needs. We are then told that our resource rich export economy with 8.9% of the UK population is responsible for half the UK deficit. And unionists in Scotland actually believe this. They are revelling at the failure of Scotland in union.

An independent nation will have different spending options. These would be accountable unlike now.

And just as importantly will have full control and accountability over revenue raised. For example, different fiscal policies on oil could end the absurdity of Scotlands public finances receiving less than 1% of the revenue that Norway does on similar extraction levels. There is your notional deficit gone right their with that one change.......and that is just one industry.

To be honest GERs figures really don't even represent Scotland in union. They have no capacity to calculate Luxembourg and multiplier effects into them. In effect making London and the SE appear wealthy at our (and the other regions of the UK's) expense. 

I wish Scottish unionists would stop being such f#ckin mugs.

Do you what makes me laugh? You got so much of this post right because you read the GERs report, and then you go and f**k it up in the end anyway. 

You're right Scotland in the United Kingdom does not have a deficit. We get our grant through the Barnett Formula and our government spends it. The Barnett Formula is generous. Scotland as a result gets more than it's equal share and thanks to the fact that 3 of our economic partners in the Union - London, The South East and East of England - are doing well we're able to live a bit off their coat tails. That is all factual - so I'm sure we can agree on that. 

The GERs Report is published by the Scottish Government. It is compiled by the same team of economic experts that the SNP rely on for all manner of advice. If they are incompetent then so, by extension, is the Scottish Government. It is correct that it is a picture of Scotland in a political union - our current situation. It doesn't pretend to represent anything else. That too is fact and I'm sure we can agree on it too. 

It's after that where you go off the rails. 

The tax revenue is collected by the HMRC. We don't give anything. HMRC collects it. The UK Government pays for the public services under it's control, as voted on and agreed by parliament at every budget and Scotland gets it's grant through the Barnett Formula. The amount given to Scotland every year has increased under the Barnett Formula regardless of how much tax revenue Scotland raises, or of "Tory Austerity Cuts".

If Scotland was to become Independent we'd need to source a method of tax collection. The SNP reckon this service would be provided by the current supplier. Nationalists seem to be arguing that HMRC will charge an independent Scotland less for this, than it currently charges. That claim looks at best unrealistic especially when you factor in the increased costs of working out a completely different tax regime. The SNP also claimed in it's White Paper that our diplomatic service as an Independent country would be cheap to run because we'd just set up in the same embassies that we do right now. Nationalists seem to think that the UK Government will charge Scotland less for this than it costs right now. Again that looks at best unrealistic. The same is true of every other public service the UK Government provides at present from administration, to defence, foreign aid, etc, etc. 

That is not to say that an Independent Scotland couldn't look completely different, and have a fiscal budget that works. It simply means doing things differently to how we do them currently - which should be a given since the nationalists claim that Westminster doesn't work and doesn't offer good value for money. So all I want to know, and what I keep asking, is if we have £13Bn per annum less to spend, because we aren't able to rely on the income London, the South East and the East of England provides, what would an Independent Scotland government do differently to save that money? So far all I've got to go on is Alex Salmonds White Paper which says we'll do everything just as we do it right now, but we'll be richer if the oil revenue prices hit record highs that we now know simply didn't happen. Had we bought his bollocks we'd have had a £29.9Bn fiscal black hole to fill as a result. 

So let me ask again - what would you change in order to save £13Bn per annum, git-intae-thum?  Would you scrap the NHS and use compulsory private medical insurance to fund health care? Would you scrap free university places and charge student fees? Would you re-introduce prescription fees? It's a simple question really and if nationalists are being honest it's one they really need to fully cost and to answer before trying to sell their fellow countrymen down the river on a promise of unicorns and fairies minding huge pots of gold somewhere over the rainbow. 

 

Edited August 30, 2019 by Malky3

[git-intae-thum]

Again. For the benefit of slavering yoonballs.

Scotland does not have a deficit.

Scotland in union has a notional deficit caused by it's membership of basket case UK.

Drastic cuts are happening and will be worsened if we continue in this nonsensical union.

 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

37 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

If Scotland was to become Independent we'd need to source a method of tax collection. The SNP reckon this service would be provided by the current supplier. 

Source for this please champ.

Hint: Don't say the white paper

While you're at it, can I have a source for 'The OBFA was passed with cross party support then repealed by the SNP'

[pawpar]

Going to this tomorrow first time on an independence march. Won't be the last. Fed up of all the shite Boris throws up. Time for a Section 30 order and if Boris doesn't like it then declare UDI.

AUG31

March and Rally For Scottish Independence - Dunfermline 2019

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Edited August 30, 2019 by pawpar

[HTG]

23 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

Source for this please champ.

Hint: Don't say the white paper

While you're at it, can I have a source for 'The OBFA was passed with cross party support then repealed by the SNP'

He's talking utter shite - plus ca change. The data cut required to create the Scottish tax paying (and by extension, collection) population has already been done to implement the variance in tax rates for Scots. 

Setting up the system to collect, account for and bank the cash will not take the duration of any transition period. I'm not sure why anyone thinks we'd be handless in terms of administration of government - every other country manages. Only a slobbering moron would believe that this nation of inventors couldn't do a bit of extra administration.  

[git-intae-thum]

Say something like a13 billion figure was realistic for an iScotland deficit.....and I am being very much hypothetical....because that is slavering nonsense....

But....

Full control over the levers of revenue, in the medium term would allow the development of a full set of fiscal policy to bring said deficit down to that similar to other Western European economies, which incidentally do no share in our incredible good fortune resource and produce wise. They get by ok though and manage to look after their vulnerable and elderly.  Back to the hypothesis.....with the right policy, deficit reduction could be achieved within a short number of years.

Any cuts that would be necessary, could be made in the non essentials that UK plc currently has us buying into. You know crossrail, HS2, the new Wembley stadium, trident etc. Yes, we are allocated a nominal offset amount as return of our share of the cost from these colossal spends . However that does not reflect the multiplying effect on the economy of where that money is actually spent. Ie for every pound we receive back...the area of spend (London and the South East) is gaining about three due to the increased economic activity the huge spend creates (jobs, Vat etc) . This is the multiplier effect.

There is also the Luxembourg effect. Named because large banks headquarter in Luxembourg. As such their profit is shown as made in Luxembourg and makes Luxembourg appear incredibly productive. The reality being the wealth of said bank is generated outside Luxembourg in its thousands of branches and millions of transactions made worldwide. The same thing happens in the UK with London.

That is where yer GERS notional  deficit is created. The UK works like a big Ponzi for London and the South East.

Again.....back the the hypothesis. Even if such a big deficit is assumed, the resultant economic boom created by no longer having our wealth funnelled through a drain and used to multiply wealth in London and the South East would likely see us able to reduce deficit pretty quickly. That money would be kept in Scotland and the multiplier effect would work on the Scottish economy. Resultant tax take from increased economic activity is a given.

We lack that control at the moment. Scotland's revenue went up this year. Our block grant from Westminter is being reduced year on year in real terms.

Staying in the UK is what will have us facing increasingly drastic cuts and losing our NHS, welfare state etc.

 

[DublinMagyar]

It certainly is. I know someone like that - all means feck all ; anecdotes etc- but that's two. The guy I know (think I wrote about him in one of these threads) honestly was a mind blown basically a mini Ruth Davidson in 2017 and he's now ''if we f**k it up, we do it ourselves ; let's not these arseholes do it for us in Westminster.''
Even Magyar seems to have his road to Damascus moment here.
 

'Scuse me?

[Kejan]

35 minutes ago, DublinMagyar said:

2 hours ago, Kejan said:

It certainly is. I know someone like that - all means feck all ; anecdotes etc- but that's two. The guy I know (think I wrote about him in one of these threads) honestly was a mind blown basically a mini Ruth Davidson in 2017 and he's now ''if we f**k it up, we do it ourselves ; let's not these arseholes do it for us in Westminster.''
Even Magyar seems to have his road to Damascus moment here.
 

'Scuse me?

Apologies, the Highland one I meant

[tirso]

Why did the Scottish government continue with the P1 testing scheme which was rejected by a majority in the Scottish parliament but the independence referendum majority is cast iron?

Both majorities should have been respected.

[jakedee]

Just seen a quote that for every £16 bottle of whisky sold, £13.50 goes to the treasury in duty or vat. £13bn. drop in the oceon.

[Malky3]

3 hours ago, git-intae-thum said:

Say something like a13 billion figure was realistic for an iScotland deficit.....and I am being very much hypothetical....because that is slavering nonsense....

But....

Full control over the levers of revenue, in the medium term would allow the development of a full set of fiscal policy to bring said deficit down to that similar to other Western European economies, which incidentally do no share in our incredible good fortune resource and produce wise. They get by ok though and manage to look after their vulnerable and elderly.  Back to the hypothesis.....with the right policy, deficit reduction could be achieved within a short number of years.

Any cuts that would be necessary, could be made in the non essentials that UK plc currently has us buying into. You know crossrail, HS2, the new Wembley stadium, trident etc. Yes, we are allocated a nominal offset amount as return of our share of the cost from these colossal spends . However that does not reflect the multiplying effect on the economy of where that money is actually spent. Ie for every pound we receive back...the area of spend (London and the South East) is gaining about three due to the increased economic activity the huge spend creates (jobs, Vat etc) . This is the multiplier effect.

There is also the Luxembourg effect. Named because large banks headquarter in Luxembourg. As such their profit is shown as made in Luxembourg and makes Luxembourg appear incredibly productive. The reality being the wealth of said bank is generated outside Luxembourg in its thousands of branches and millions of transactions made worldwide. The same thing happens in the UK with London.

That is where yer GERS notional  deficit is created. The UK works like a big Ponzi for London and the South East.

Again.....back the the hypothesis. Even if such a big deficit is assumed, the resultant economic boom created by no longer having our wealth funnelled through a drain and used to multiply wealth in London and the South East would likely see us able to reduce deficit pretty quickly. That money would be kept in Scotland and the multiplier effect would work on the Scottish economy. Resultant tax take from increased economic activity is a given.

We lack that control at the moment. Scotland's revenue went up this year. Our block grant from Westminter is being reduced year on year in real terms.

Staying in the UK is what will have us facing increasingly drastic cuts and losing our NHS, welfare state etc.

 

Ok let me first get the part out of the way where I repeat myself. 

Scotland DOES spend £13Bn more than it earns. That is fact. It's not my fact, it's not been made up by Westminster. It's the conclusion of a report into the fiscal state of Scotland as a country right now. It's compiled by the Scottish Governments top statisticians and economists. and it's been fully ratified and endorsed by the Scottish Government Finance Minister Derek MacKay. You allege it's slavering nonsense without any basis other than your prejudiced supposition. Yet if you are correct and these figures are wrong then that would call into question the competence of the Scottish Government and of the Finance Minister. 

I have also stated many times now that Scotland does not have a deficit. This is also factually correct. You keep referencing me and pointing out to me that there is no deficit. I agree. Can we put that behind us? Scotland is not in deficit currently because our Scottish Government is spending the money allocated to it in the Barnett Formula. The fact we spend more than we earn ONLY becomes an issue if Scotland decides to go it alone. 

You also really seem to be struggling with how the Barnett Formula works. Basically when the UK Government decides to spend more money on capital projects in England, it has to increase the amount given to Scotland proportionally. So capital spends like HS2, Crossrail, and Wembley Stadium have been great for Scotland in that it has meant a larger grant being paid for the Scottish Government to use on projects North of the Border. 

And then there is your talk of having full control of your own fiscal levers - which wilfully ignores the fact that isn't a policy that has ever been talked about with regard to an Independent Scotland. Instead when talking about an Independent Scotland the current line of thought appears to be that we will use Sterlingisation - giving control of our economic levers to the Bank of England - until such times as our new economy has stabilised at which point we'll look to create our own new currency with a Central Bank with the hope of eventually getting full membership of the EU and adopting the Euro. 

The Luxemburg effect in London? Ok, so if that is an issue how is an Independent Scotland going to stop global companies that operate in Scotland taking their profits out of the country? Even established world powers haven't found a way to prevent that from happening in their countries, but you think a new country run by people their own financial backers think would fail Standard Grade Economics will manage to stop oil companies from and finance houses from running their businesses through HQ's in London. 

To finish off can I ask a few questions. Why is it that when the UK economy runs at a deficit that is bad news, but when asked about what Scotland would do if it was Independent the first thing nationalists want to do is operate at a deficit cause it's unreasonable to expect us not to? Why is it that nationalists who are openly critical of Westminster and of the state of public services, when faced with the prospect of setting up a new country immediately promise to keep everything the same? And why is it nationalists who can view the size of the grant paid to Scotland through the Barnett Formula and who are well aware that Scotland gets one of the highest payments per head of population in the UK like to talk about how it's a "cut in real terms" every year, when Independence would mean turning off our access to the large amounts of money generated in London, the South East and the East of England and would leave us having to find £13Bn of real cuts every single year just to balance the books. 

[Malky3]

6 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

We can sustain our economy post indy by selling Malky keyboards.

Even the promise of vast amounts of money in royalties wouldn't change my vote. 

No thanks! 

[UsedToGoToCentralPark]

One things for sure, the public are a lot more informed with what needs done in the event of a indy yes vote. This has the advantage that currency, trade deals, EU plan,etc will need to be clearly defined before the vote to prevent scaremongering.

If its spelt out in black and white then an informed decision can be made based on fact not whataboutery.

[Bairnardo]

Bless Malky he is trying so so hard.

Long past the point where one day he can claim fishing/trolling etc and firmly into the realms of a solid, cast irommn bammer.

[git-intae-thum]

6 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Bless Malky he is trying so so hard.

Long past the point where one day he can claim fishing/trolling etc and firmly into the realms of a solid, cast irommn bammer.

Bless.......Malky is no quite getting the difference between deficit as in what independent countries with full fiscal control get to run......and notional deficit.....as in the kind that UK statisticians make up for Scotland whilst it is in union. 

I have already posted at least 3 times, explaining how this notional deficit is created......but it's like explaining something to a plank of wid.

In fairness it is a common error among the yoonball element in our society

 

[Bairnardo]

15 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

Bless.......Malky is no quite getting the difference between deficit as in what independent countries with full fiscal control get to run......and notional deficit.....as in the kind that UK statisticians make up for Scotland whilst it is in union. 

I have already posted at least 3 times, explaining how this notional deficit is created......but it's like explaining something to a plank of wid.

In fairness it is a common error among the yoonball element in our society

 

If you are sick of using Malky as a football here, check out his other work on the forum. at about 03:00 this morning he posted a tale of utter fantasy int he Snip thread which has been suitably ridiculed. An absolute fucking rocket. 

[lichtgilphead]

19 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

Bless.......Malky is no quite getting the difference between deficit as in what independent countries with full fiscal control get to run......and notional deficit.....as in the kind that UK statisticians make up for Scotland whilst it is in union. 

I have already posted at least 3 times, explaining how this notional deficit is created......but it's like explaining something to a plank of wid.

In fairness it is a common error among the yoonball element in our society

 

Our problem is that if the troll actually accepts a reasoned answer to his ridiculous questions, he cannot repeat the question again, and again, and again etc.

It's in his interests to pretend that his nonsense has not been answered. As long as we respond, he can continue to troll.