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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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Aye absolutely, but they still need a deal. As I said I suspect the first trade deals will be with the USA, and some of the Commonwealth countries like Australia, Canada and New Zealand, and I would imagine that a deal with the EU wouldn't be that far behind either. What would be more worrying to me would be to have a Scottish Government pushing Scotland towards another expensive, costly and damaging divorce just as things would be getting better. That would be catastrophic for Scotland. 

The same USA who’s congressional leaders have vowed to veto any trade deal in the event of a break down in the good friday deal? That USA? Thats some real in depth analysis, I feel better now lads, Malky’s got it all sorted.
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On 02/08/2019 at 10:38, renton said:

Devolution is undoubtedly a positive development within the framework of the UK. The fact that it was only given partial control of income tax, and then only after an independence referendum speaks volumes as to the seriousness with which the Scottish parliament is considered by the UK. See also the fact that the UK could resume direct control and abolish the parliament tomorrow, if it so wished and also the ongoing issue around how to best progress another IndyRef - the Scottish parliament exists solely at the UK government's sufferance.

A minor point but this is not correct, Scotland had the ability to adjust income tax before the referendum.  It was explicitly part of the devolution referendum.

It was in fact the SNP that refused to pay the admin for keeping systems updated that resulted in the Parliament losing the ability to adjust income tax by up to 3p.

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6 minutes ago, strichener said:

A minor point but this is not correct, Scotland had the ability to adjust income tax before the referendum.  It was explicitly part of the devolution referendum.

It was in fact the SNP that refused to pay the admin for keeping systems updated that resulted in the Parliament losing the ability to adjust income tax by up to 3p.

This is true, right enough. It's just that no one in government, either Labour or the SNP were ever stupid enough to try and use it given the way it was devolved. 

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9 hours ago, Malky3 said:

And I'm economically illiterate? 

Let me try to keep this simple. Lets say the total value of my assets is £100,000 and against this I have borrowed £5,000 does that make me bankrupt? Does that make my debt unsustainable? 

You Nationalists want the argument all ways. In one breath you want to tell us how rich Scotland is with it's vast oil reserves in the North Sea, and in the next breath you tell us the UK of which Scotland - and the North Sea - is a part of is bankrupt over a national debt of £1,800Bn. To prove a point - Business For Scotland recently claimed there were around 15Bn barrels of oil left in the North Sea. They estimated the value of that at £1,500Bn. The UK owns other territories where there are oil reserves too. For example in the Falklands we own the South and East Falklands Basin where there is an estimated 5Bn barrels of extractable oil which, using Business For Scotlands figures, must be worth another £500Bn. 

Indeed the Office of National Statistics estimates the total value of UK assets to the end of 2017 to be £10.2 trillion - around £155,000 per person living in the UK. More than enough to cover our national debt many times over. The UK is no more bankrupt or unsustainable than you are! 

Had it not been for Brexit the UK economy would have been in surplus this year for the first time since Margaret Thatcher was in power. Even with Brexit and with Boris Johnston promising to spend large sums of money, it's highly likely that the deficit will be cut again during the current fiscal year, and that we'll be into surplus by the end of next year. That is the strength of the UK when it's together. 

"... I believe....".....  "..... every chance...."   

becomes

statement of 'fact'.

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8 hours ago, Malky3 said:

Go on then. Tell me how you would make the books balance?

I would use the tax system to help stimulate growth.  For instance, a nil corporation tax rate on manufacturing that physically occurs in Scotland

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Just now, Wee Bully said:

I would use the tax system to help stimulate growth.  For instance, a nil corporation tax rate on manufacturing that physically occurs in Scotland

That's race to the bottom stuff I'm afraid.

Our public finances are already at breaking point so where does the money come from to fund our councils etc ?

The only people who win from this scenario is those at the top and the indigenous people end up in shanty towns with little to no access to health care or public services and generally the only advocates of this are the wealthiest in society and those who have been bribed by said people.

So No, not for me...................

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8 minutes ago, WATTOO said:

That's race to the bottom stuff I'm afraid.

Our public finances are already at breaking point so where does the money come from to fund our councils etc ?

The only people who win from this scenario is those at the top and the indigenous people end up in shanty towns with little to no access to health care or public services and generally the only advocates of this are the wealthiest in society and those who have been bribed by said people.

So No, not for me...................

Fair enough if that's your view.  

I don't see this as "race to the bottom" as it only relates to manufacturing.  It is an attempt t reverse the decline in the manufacturing base, provide jobs which are not just "white collar", and benefit from the resultant increase in the tax base (PAYE, Employers NI, NNDR, etc).  You can't manufacture without people , and i would see strong anti-avoidance clauses around just assembling goods here.  

 

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1 hour ago, git-intae-thum said:

Are the books unbalanced? No one can say with any certainty because Scottish  revenue income has no accurate measurement.

To suggest otherwise is false.

Oh we can say with certainty in this case. The White Paper was "fully costed" based on an oil price that has never been realised. So what bits of "everything we've got now" would you cut to balance the books? 

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5 minutes ago, Wee Bully said:

Fair enough if that's your view.  

I don't see this as "race to the bottom" as it only relates to manufacturing.  It is an attempt t reverse the decline in the manufacturing base, provide jobs which are not just "white collar", and benefit from the resultant increase in the tax base (PAYE, Employers NI, NNDR, etc).  You can't manufacture without people , and i would see strong anti-avoidance clauses around just assembling goods here.  

 

Don't get me wrong, I completely agree with attempting to rebuild our manufacturing base, however a zero corporation tax is not the way in my opinion.

Yes, we need to attract companies to invest, however Germany has proven that decent level taxation is not a barrier and in fact core skills, attitude and education are in fact far more important to most companies when looking at investment sites.

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1 hour ago, renton said:

This is true, right enough. It's just that no one in government, either Labour or the SNP were ever stupid enough to try and use it given the way it was devolved. 

They could have used it to cut taxes and to encourage more firms to set up north of the border. Instead the SNP administration chose to help Amazon with their tax avoidance by giving them huge grants. 

Its interesting to note also that the SNPs Scottish tax raised less than a third of what they had forecast and the Westminster government had to bail them out. 

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1 minute ago, Malky3 said:

They could have used it to cut taxes and to encourage more firms to set up north of the border. Instead the SNP administration chose to help Amazon with their tax avoidance by giving them huge grants. 

Its interesting to note also that the SNPs Scottish tax raised less than a third of what they had forecast and the Westminster government had to bail them out. 

Problem is that not all the taxes are covered - there is no benefit under the devolved settlement for cutting Income Tax in that way, as the beneft of increased CT (for instance) doesn't flow to the Scottish Treasury.  Instead, it goes to Westminster, whilst cutting the Scottish tax base.

It's why my suggestion above would only work with full control of all the taxes.

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33 minutes ago, Wee Bully said:

I would use the tax system to help stimulate growth.  For instance, a nil corporation tax rate on manufacturing that physically occurs in Scotland

I would certainly have cut the tax rate. The important figutre is the over all tax take not the % charged. Cutting tax would have attracted more businesses and more wealth - exactly what would've been required to boost the total revenue. Unfortunately most people in Scotland, politicians included, rallying struggle with that concept

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4 minutes ago, Wee Bully said:

Problem is that not all the taxes are covered - there is no benefit under the devolved settlement for cutting Income Tax in that way, as the beneft of increased CT (for instance) doesn't flow to the Scottish Treasury.  Instead, it goes to Westminster, whilst cutting the Scottish tax base.

It's why my suggestion above would only work with full control of all the taxes.

Fair enough. 

Credit where its due thats the first positive suggestion I've seen on these pages for Scottish Independence. 

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12 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

I would certainly have cut the tax rate. The important figutre is the over all tax take not the % charged. Cutting tax would have attracted more businesses and more wealth - exactly what would've been required to boost the total revenue. Unfortunately most people in Scotland, politicians included, rallying struggle with that concept

Actually, the current Scottish Government absolutely get this, and their view is that it is all about "tax take" rather than "tax rate".  Derek MacKay has been very consistent on this.  

It's why Scotland was "gifted" these powers after 2014.  They can't really be used in an effective way.

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19 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

I would certainly have cut the tax rate. The important figutre is the over all tax take not the % charged. Cutting tax would have attracted more businesses and more wealth - exactly what would've been required to boost the total revenue. Unfortunately most people in Scotland, politicians included, rallying struggle with that concept

Again, completely disagree.

This is drip down Economics which has proven to be a great idea for those at the top but a complete and utter disaster for everyone else in society.

I'd also refer you to my point about Germany and Corporation tax which completely blows out the water any theory that zero taxation is the only way to attract investment.

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14 minutes ago, Wee Bully said:

Actually, the current Scottish Government absolutely get this, and their view is that it is all about "tax take" rather than "tax rate".  Derek MacKay has been very consistent on this.  

It's why Scotland was "gifted" these powers after 2014.  They can't really be used in an effective way.

Yet they increased the tax rate and raised less than they forecast. Are you sure they know what they are doing? 

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