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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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If you listen to UK gov there is not gonnae be a hard border in Ireland. They will get it sorted with all manner of new border control innovations. Contrast that with Westminster and Scottish unionists attitudes to the same problem regarding Scotland.😂 What a duplicitous shower of [email protected] 

No one wants a hard border with the rUK, so the Ireland situation is interesting.

Indeed until we were actually confirmed an EU member state, there would be no need for a hard border, unless Westminster dictated it. Given it may damage both economies, it would be the last thing they would want.

However even if there was hard border, Scotland within an EU trading block would be on the right side of it. Given the importing nature of the rUK economy, particularly with regards the necessities that we produce, they would have little other options but to buy. We would have other tariff free import options.

Also the transition may not be that severe. Given the dodgy methodology of the staistics that are available to ESS, it is highly likely that our trade with the rUK is very much overstated compared with that to Europe and the rest of the World. ESS is based on survey return. Survey forms are sent out to 6000 businesses annually ....with no legal compunction to complete and return them.

ESS also does not have access to any specific statistics of trade between the nation's of the UK. So these figures unionists keep quoting are effectively made up. It does record direct sales from Scotland to outwith the UK. These show that 40% of our trade is to Europe and ROW destinations.

However here is the caveat

ESS states: "ESS estimates only capture the first point of export. This means if a good is exported to a company in the rest of the UK and that company then exports it somewhere else, ESS will only capture the export to the rest of the UK.

Make from that what you will, but very few Scottish goods are exported directly from Scotland without transiting an rUK port. Scottish goods sent elsewhere in the UK as component parts or for repackaging prior to export are not counted as Scottish international exports, but credited to rUK. We effectively have a "Rotterdam effect" on trade within the UK.

More reason for Scotland to have its own high volume container ports. Independence would transform the likes of Methil.

Edited by git-intae-thum
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10 hours ago, git-intae-thum said:

 

However here is the caveat

ESS states: "ESS estimates only capture the first point of export. This means if a good is exported to a company in the rest of the UK and that company then exports it somewhere else, ESS will only capture the export to the rest of the UK.

Make from that what you will, but very few Scottish goods are exported directly from Scotland without transiting an rUK port. Scottish goods sent elsewhere in the UK as component parts or for repackaging prior to export are not counted as Scottish international exports, but credited to rUK. We effectively have a "Rotterdam effect" on trade within the UK.

More reason for Scotland to have its own high volume container ports. Independence would transform the likes of Methil.

 

Think it would take more than that to transform Methil.

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1 hour ago, Malky3 said:

You're right - no one wants a hard border with the ROI. That is absolutely true. Yet here we are just a few months away from a possible No Deal Brexit, which means no backstop and the return of a hard border at the EU's insistence. Do you really think that an Independent Scotland would be treated differently? This isn't a "narrative", it's reality. Maybe a hard border between the UK and the EU can still be avoided but no-one seems to have found the piece of technology that would satisfy the EU side and the "backstop" hasn't managed to make it through the UK parliament. 

You're also right that Scotland exports most of it's produce through ports in England which proves just how retarded the Nationalist argument for Independence from the UK really is. However I'm all for doing something with Methil - one of the biggest skid marks on Nicola Sturgeons briefs (her own constituency being another) 

The idea that it's better to have a hard border with 500m people rather than with 50m is just bizarre. 

The Scottish Government are well aware of the need for greatly increased container facilities on the east coast. They've had feasibility studies on the go for sometime. From what I've heard the preference is for the south shore of the Forth, (sorry, Methil) either to the west or east of Edinburgh. 

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2 hours ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

The idea that it's better to have a hard border with 500m people rather than with 50m is just bizarre. 

The Scottish Government are well aware of the need for greatly increased container facilities on the east coast. They've had feasibility studies on the go for sometime. From what I've heard the preference is for the south shore of the Forth, (sorry, Methil) either to the west or east of Edinburgh. 

Here we go again with Nationalists that can't read. 😒

Go back and read my posts again, just the one you quoted will do. At no point have I stated a preference for any hard border. You've absolutely made that up which is no surprise since lying is a nationalist trait! 

 

Edited by Malky3
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9 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

Here we go again with Nationalists that can't read. 😒

Go back and read my posts again, just the one you quoted will do. At no point have I stated a preference for any hard border. You've absolutely made that up which is no surprise since lying is a nationalist trait! 

 

Merely stating facts, chap.

At no point did I say that you'd stated anything.

You're right about lying though. It's British nationalist lies that have brought us close to the abyss of Brexit. 

Edited by Tibbermoresaint
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20 minutes ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

Merely stating facts, chap.

At no point did I say that you'd stated anything.

You're right about lying though. It's British nationalist lies that have brought us close to the abyss of Brexit. 

What facts? Do you even know what a fact is? You stated your personal opinion on a statement that had never been made by anyone on this thread. You then followed that with a bit of gossip. 

 

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1 minute ago, Malky3 said:

What facts? Do you even know what a fact is? You stated your personal opinion on a statement that had never been made by anyone on this thread. You then followed that with a bit of gossip. 

 

Nice obfuscation. If you think the facts I post are incorrect then say so and provide evidence to the contrary.

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23 hours ago, Malky3 said:

It's been bad, I agree. But to have a second long drawn out divorce leaving us with a ridiculous hard border with our nearest neighbour - that would be catastrophic

The absolute dearth of regionalist argument in evidence again. No longer even any pretence at the UK being better together anymore - it’s entirely “yes, it’s bad, but not as bad as trying to govern yourselves”. 😂 Are UKNats not even the slightest bit dismayed that since 2014 their own nationalism has reduced their economic case for dependence to this? You bent the knee, you waved your Union Jack, you professed loyalism to precious precious dependence, and the English and Welsh still elected to fling you under the bus and reduce you to this.

Edited by Antlion
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1 hour ago, Antlion said:

The absolute dearth of regionalist argument in evidence again. No longer even any pretence at the UK being better together anymore - it’s entirely “yes, it’s bad, but not as bad as trying to govern yourselves”. 😂 Are UKNats not even the slightest bit dismayed that since 2014 their own nationalism has reduced their economic case for dependence to this? You bent the knee, you waved your Union Jack, you professed loyalism to precious precious dependence, and the English and Welsh still elected to fling you under the bus and reduce you to this.

I didn't do any such thing. I voted to protect what my family had. We've already established that. Since 2014 I have bought a larger house, new cars, paid off debt and accumulated more savings. I've continued to work for an English company. I'd imagine many other Scots have successfully done the same - all in a period where the SNP had got its sums massively wrong in their White Paper and where instead of rocketing to all time highs the price of oil fell through the floor. 

I think the last five years have shown we are undoubtedly Better Together. Only a Nationalist lemming would think otherwise. 

What is noticeable is just how negative the nationalist campaign has become. Last time round you wanted to sell us fairies, unicorns and big pots of gold at the end of the rainbow. This time round its "boris is a w****r", "your divorce is pure shite, let us show you how to really get divorced*, and" Eton is rubbish by the way". You can't even prove the EU would have Scotland back on the same terms if we ever left the UK. This time round you aren't even good snake oil salesmen. Its really poor stuff. 

Edited by Malky3
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43 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

I didn't do any such thing. I voted to protect what my family had. We've already established that. Since 2014 I have bought a larger house, new cars, paid off debt and accumulated more savings. I've continued to work for an English company. I'd imagine many other Scots have successfully done the same - all in a period where the SNP had got its sums massively wrong in their White Paper and where instead of rocketing to all time highs the price of oil fell through the floor. 

I think the last five years have shown we are undoubtedly Better Together. Only a Nationalist lemming would think otherwise. 

Really you took the'I'm alright Jack, f**k you'policy instead of thinking what's right for the country. I voted to remain. What a hell of a mistake that was. I believe Scotland is doing ok due to a lot of Scottish governments actions in spite of the potential Brexit. 

A no deal will undoubtedly lead to severe problems for the whole of the UK and Scotland is being dragged out of Eurozone against its will. It is now blindingly obvious that with an arch right wing government we have, who dont give a rats about the people who they represent and only of themselves and their rich pals that Scotland needs to break with the UK and tie itself firmly to Europe.

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22 minutes ago, Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier said:

Really you took the'I'm alright Jack, f**k you'policy instead of thinking what's right for the country. I voted to remain. What a hell of a mistake that was. I believe Scotland is doing ok due to a lot of Scottish governments actions in spite of the potential Brexit. 

A no deal will undoubtedly lead to severe problems for the whole of the UK and Scotland is being dragged out of Eurozone against its will. It is now blindingly obvious that with an arch right wing government we have, who dont give a rats about the people who they represent and only of themselves and their rich pals that Scotland needs to break with the UK and tie itself firmly to Europe.

Its the only measure that is factual. I know what I have and things are pretty good. I could claim the same for my friends, family, work colleagues etc but that wouldn't be factual cause I have no idea what their status is despite their apparent prosperity. The only downsides to my relative wealth and prosperity in recent years have been down to the Scottish Government. I now have to pay more tax than my English work colleagues and the disastrous and baffling way the SNP handled the Scottish Police regrading would have had a negative effect on us if my wife hadn't been promoted immediately after it came into effect. 

We have no idea what the terms of Brexit will be yet, nor can we catagorically measure the effect. I personally believe it has damaged us already. Uncertainty will have put businesses off investing in the UK. So far the UK economy has coped though with low inflation, low interest rates and record high levels of people in employment. Todays news even reports new high levels of tourism as the low value of the pound proves highly attractive. Growth has been slow but the ecomony continue to grow regardless and I believe that once we have certainty, no matter what it is, business will quickly adapt and we'll see stronger growth as we catch up on where we should have been.

Thats my opinion which is as factual as the opinion you've posted predicting armageddon. However what you fail to cover in yours is how you think wandering from one bloody and costly  divorce into another will make it all better? Feel free to sell me a second costly and bloody divorce. What would be so good about it? 

 

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44 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

Its the only measure that is factual. I know what I have and things are pretty good. I could claim the same for my friends, family, work colleagues etc but that wouldn't be factual cause I have no idea what their status is despite their apparent prosperity. The only downsides to my relative wealth and prosperity in recent years have been down to the Scottish Government. I now have to pay more tax than my English work colleagues and the disastrous and baffling way the SNP handled the Scottish Police regrading would have had a negative effect on us if my wife hadn't been promoted immediately after it came into effect. 

We have no idea what the terms of Brexit will be yet, nor can we catagorically measure the effect. I personally believe it has damaged us already. Uncertainty will have put businesses off investing in the UK. So far the UK economy has coped though with low inflation, low interest rates and record high levels of people in employment. Todays news even reports new high levels of tourism as the low value of the pound proves highly attractive. Growth has been slow but the ecomony continue to grow regardless and I believe that once we have certainty, no matter what it is, business will quickly adapt and we'll see stronger growth as we catch up on where we should have been.

Thats my opinion which is as factual as the opinion you've posted predicting armageddon. However what you fail to cover in yours is how you think wandering from one bloody and costly  divorce into another will make it all better? Feel free to sell me a second costly and bloody divorce. What would be so good about it? 

 

The downside to your relative wealth and prosperity is in fact... your alright jack attitude.   Because when things get sticky, or tragedy strikes... as it does to all of us...

you'll actually find out who your friends are.  And if, they are all similar to you with your alright jack attitude,

you are, scuse me,  ****ed.

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4 hours ago, beefybake said:

The downside to your relative wealth and prosperity is in fact... your alright jack attitude.   Because when things get sticky, or tragedy strikes... as it does to all of us...

you'll actually find out who your friends are.  And if, they are all similar to you with your alright jack attitude,

you are, scuse me,  ****ed.

This is the mistake you make, along with other Nationalists, when it comes to debating politics. You assume that because someone doesn't back an Independent Scotland they must be Conservative voting, brexit supporting, fascist racists who loathe everything but themselves. It's not true of me, or - I would venture - many of the 55% of Scots who voted No at the last Independence Referendum. Truth it regardless of political ideology we're all going to be pretty much the same. 

I have explained the rational I applied to my voting in both the last Independence Referendum and in the EU Referendum. To my mind it's entirely consistent, practical, measurable and justifiable. It applies to me, to my family and the trend can be seen all along my family tree. It also appears to work for most of my friends and their families, although I can't be 100% certain of that because having a big house and driving a Jaguar isn't necessarily proof of prosperity these days. I can also see it around me, in Glasgow where I grew up as most of the City has improved - the one real notable exception being the First Ministers constituency which has definitely deteriorated since I was a boy growing up in the Southside.

Do we all need a radical political change? What exactly would Scottish Independence do for the minority who seem to be failing and what evidence is there that the SNP could ever deliver it - especially since they seem to spend around £10Bn - £14Bn more than the country raises in taxes every single year. Is more economic instability and uncertainty likely to get the few remaining unemployed Scots into work? Is a hard border between Scotland and England likely to cure the drug epidemic that has blighted our country ever since the SNP took office at Hollyrood? How many Nationalists are putting the lives of others ahead of their own political dogma and their ideological agenda? Or is it just a case of you hating the English so much you would put up with absolutely anything just to disassociate yourself from them politically? 

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46 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

This is the mistake you make, along with other Nationalists, when it comes to debating politics. You assume that because someone doesn't back an Independent Scotland they must be Conservative voting, brexit supporting, fascist racists who loathe everything but themselves. It's not true of me, or - I would venture - many of the 55% of Scots who voted No at the last Independence Referendum. Truth it regardless of political ideology we're all going to be pretty much the same. 

I have explained the rational I applied to my voting in both the last Independence Referendum and in the EU Referendum. To my mind it's entirely consistent, practical, measurable and justifiable. It applies to me, to my family and the trend can be seen all along my family tree. It also appears to work for most of my friends and their families, although I can't be 100% certain of that because having a big house and driving a Jaguar isn't necessarily proof of prosperity these days. I can also see it around me, in Glasgow where I grew up as most of the City has improved - the one real notable exception being the First Ministers constituency which has definitely deteriorated since I was a boy growing up in the Southside.

Do we all need a radical political change? What exactly would Scottish Independence do for the minority who seem to be failing and what evidence is there that the SNP could ever deliver it - especially since they seem to spend around £10Bn - £14Bn more than the country raises in taxes every single year. Is more economic instability and uncertainty likely to get the few remaining unemployed Scots into work? Is a hard border between Scotland and England likely to cure the drug epidemic that has blighted our country ever since the SNP took office at Hollyrood? How many Nationalists are putting the lives of others ahead of their own political dogma and their ideological agenda? Or is it just a case of you hating the English so much you would put up with absolutely anything just to disassociate yourself from them politically? 

You actually know very little beyond your own view of life, and your own ideologies, which are fairly obvious. 

 

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