When will indyref2 happen?

[ICTJohnboy]

Good call here to James O'Brien on LBC this morning...

 

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/scottish-independence-opposite-to-brexit/

[BawWatchin]

16 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

Good call here to James O'Brien on LBC this morning...

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/scottish-independence-opposite-to-brexit/

Tearing up..... getting emotional. Move to Scotland, we'll all be friends.

 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

The seethe from the usual suspects in SLAB over McDonnell's comments has been tremendous today. 

[ICTJohnboy]

24 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

The seethe from the usual suspects in SLAB over McDonnell's comments has been tremendous today. 

 

Absolutely, but couldn't the BBC Scotland c**t who interviewed Richard Leonard have queried his assertion that "Scotland does not want independence"..? That's not what the latest opinion polls are saying.

Also his statement that "We were promised the last referendum was to be a once in a generation"  failed to point out that much has changed since then. 

Leonard is a useless waste of space.

 

 

Edited August 7, 2019 by ICTJohnboy

[Malky3]

1 hour ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

Absolutely, but couldn't the BBC Scotland c**t who interviewed Richard Leonard have queried his assertion that "Scotland does not want independence"..? That's not what the latest opinion polls are saying.

Also his statement that "We were promised the last referendum was to be a once in a generation"  failed to point out that much has changed since then. 

Leonard is a useless waste of space.

The latest opinion poll you refer to showed only 48% of Scots wanting Independence - the rest either didn't want it, or didn't know. 

The error margin on the poll was +/- 3% and the sample size taken was 1,019. 

I know all political polls use similar methodology, but it's a huge leap from there to claiming that Scotland wants Independence. 

Edited August 7, 2019 by Malky3

[Baxter Parp]

4 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

The latest opinion poll you refer to showed only 48% of Scots wanting Independence - the rest either didn't want it, or didn't know. 

The error margin on the poll was +/- 3% and the sample size taken was 1,019. 

I know all political polls use similar methodology, but it's a huge leap from there to claiming that Scotland wants Independence. 

Also didn't include 16-18 year olds and EU nationals and both groups favour independence.  You can safely say that Scotland wants independence.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

A poll shows 48% yes 52% no.

'See, this proves that the Scottish people don't want Independence or another referendum'

Poll shows 52% yes 48% no.

'This poll means nothing. Nothing has changed. We said no and we meant it'

[Alan Stubbs]

43 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

It's too soon to tell and as far as I am concerned, the polls haven't, on average, significantly budged at all since 2014.

You are still looking at a 50-50 split in the vote.

The other thing to remember is that everything which should have moved the polls have failed to have an effect. There isn't much else which can happen to cause the big definitive movement to Yes or No and end this debate for decades. If a no deal Brexit, Boris Johnson, austerity, 120,000+ people dying in the street (according to Mixu and a few other nutjobs), hundreds of new foodbanks appearing and a host of all other sorts of nonsense haven't budged the polls, what's left other than playing the waiting game?

[lichtgilphead]

In a binary choice poll, if the margin of error is +/-3%, and "apples" is polled at 52% and "oranges" at 48%, the term "statistical tie" is often bandied about.

However, this does not mean that each side have an equal chance of winning, especially in a situation where 50% +1 wins the day and every drop in support for one side gives an equivalent boost to the other.

In very simple terms (i.e. ignoring the usual 95% confidence interval and the distribution curve, and also assuming that no other factors come into play), this means that the final result may be as high as 55/45 (apples wins) or as low as 49/51 (oranges win)

Accordingly, as 50:50 is within the possible range of results, the poll result is technically a statistical tie, but at 52:48 polling, one result is far more likely than the other. Apples should win around 8 times in 10.

[Malky3]

42 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

A poll shows 48% yes 52% no.

'See, this proves that the Scottish people don't want Independence or another referendum'

Poll shows 52% yes 48% no.

'This poll means nothing. Nothing has changed. We said no and we meant it'

In fairness the only poll that we know was extremely accurate was the referendum in 2014 where Scotland showed, unequivocally, that a sizable majority of Scots did not want Scottish Independence, 

Every other poll since has has a sample group where about 1,000 Scots are asked their opinion, and where their answers are weighted in a manner the pollsters consider appropriate. The error margin is always +/- 3% and as Oaksoft has pointed it it seems no matter what you throw at it, very little has changed. 

Nicola Sturgeon herself has previously ruled out calling Indy Ref 2 until such times as the polls regularly show 60%+ of Scots wanting Independence. She knows a second defeat buries Scottish Independence for at least three decades. 

Oaksoft is correct. Scottish Nationalism is a busted flush

 

[lichtgilphead]

^^^^The troll doesn't understand statistics^^^^

[D Angelo Barksdale]

26 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

Oaksoft is correct. Scottish Nationalism is a busted flush

 

4 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I don't think it is a busted flush.

[Baxter Parp]

Sure you do. 5.3% is nothing.

It's plenty.

[AUFC90]

Sure you do. 5.3% is nothing.
You are all getting too excited too soon.
Come back when Yes is consistently over 60% and you'll find me paying a bit more attention to the polls.

We'll not be coming back to you about anything since you went all Tory after HB humiliating you. Yes will never poll above 60% in my lifetime. Will they win a referendum? I think they might actually manage this time and I'm the ultimate pessimist when it comes to independence. All the scare stories and the like won't work this time when you have Boris at the helm in England continuing the trend of the last few years of Tory government, by making an absolute c**t of everything and a whole host of non entities in Scotland that will be batting for "Better Together".

Bring it on.

[lichtgilphead]

 

1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

5.3% is nothing.

Yoon arithmetic is incomprehensible. 

1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

The problem is making sure Apples are consistently at 52%.

You also need to explain how it is possible to have certainty around error bands with any statistical measure The number of variables is simply too high for there to be meaningful certainty in anything.

Statistical measures are designed to give a feel for the likelihood of things. When people start relying on them as "proof", that is clear abuse of the maths and you start running into all sorts of problems.

A consistent 60% for Apples would indicate a string likelihood of Apples winning but nobody should be interpreting more firmly than that.

52-48 is simply too close to call.

You obviously didn't read my post properly. I was talking about the concept of the statistical tie, as someone mentioned it further up the thread.

That's why I referred to apples vs oranges instead of yes vs no.

As I explained, 52:48 can be considered to be a statistical tie, as it is 95% certain (see "confidence intervals" below) that the true result will have apples on some figure between 49%-55%. If that figure is 50% +1 (which will happen approximately 8 times in 10, assuming that no other factors come into play), apples win.

If your statement is correct, and 52:48 is too close to call, can I ask a simple question? Will you give me even money on a bet with these odds?

Oh, and if Apples consistently poll 60% with a 95% confidence interval and a margin of error of 3%, the chances of oranges winning are roughly f*ck all. That's a bit more than a "string likelihood"

1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

I think he does. He is just not abusing them to suit his argument.

Not yet anyway.

Here are the obvious errors in his post

1) "Scotland" didn't vote. The Scottish electorate voted. The Scottish electorate has changed since 2014.

2) Polls don't ask "1000 Scots". They establish a sample which is then weighted to reflect the various groupings within the electorate. This will include non-Scots who are entitled to vote (rightly so!) and will also be weighted by sex, age etc. Polling is slightly more sophisticated than "I asked 4 friends at a funeral, and they all voted no" as one Yoon memorably posted here many moons ago

3) The troll suggests "Every other poll since has has a sample group where about 1,000 Scots are asked their opinion" On many occasions, the poll figures are given as a subsample of a larger poll. This introdces a far larger margin of error (The 95% confidence interval margin of error with a sample group of 100 is +/- 10%)

4) "Answers are weighted" No. The sample population is weighted to reflect the electorate population spread. How on earth do you weight "apple" to equal "orange"?

5) "The error margin is always +/- 3%". Aye, if you're working to 95% confidence intervals. That goes without saying., as one depends upon the other. If you use the same figures (1000 sample size, >1000000 population, the 99% confidence level MOE is 4%, and the 85% confidence level MOE is 2%. Presenting statistical facts as insights shows that someone doesn't understand statistics.

6) "Very little has changed" Apart from the electorate, the views of EU nationals and the voters who have wswitched from one side to the other (both ways) , everything is exactly the same. Dream on.

The only point that you and the troll have correct that it's just one poll. Hopefully the first of many IMO.

 

Edited August 7, 2019 by lichtgilphead

[Baxter Parp]

Funnily enough the Remain side had the same arrogance as you.
I'll need to look up how that turned out.
 

How is "it's plenty" arrogant? Are you always this far up your own arse?

[Cerberus]

In fairness the only poll that we know was extremely accurate was the referendum in 2014 where Scotland showed, unequivocally, that a sizable majority of Scots did not want Scottish Independence, 
Every other poll since has has a sample group where about 1,000 Scots are asked their opinion, and where their answers are weighted in a manner the pollsters consider appropriate. The error margin is always +/- 3% and as Oaksoft has pointed it it seems no matter what you throw at it, very little has changed. 
Nicola Sturgeon herself has previously ruled out calling Indy Ref 2 until such times as the polls regularly show 60%+ of Scots wanting Independence. She knows a second defeat buries Scottish Independence for at least three decades. 
Oaksoft is correct. Scottish Nationalism is a busted flush
 

Try Googling this instead dude-

[Colkitto]

5 hours ago, oaksoft said:

 

Polling humans with any reasonable precision on any issue is fundamentally flawed because you cannot correct for a humans ability to change their mind depending on how they feel when they wake up and see the weather each day.

You have just made the case for indyref2. Yes, people do change their minds!  2014 is a different world from 2019

[Double Jack D]

In my view a 52-48 poll either way demonstrates the need for another Referendum. Its too close to call either way and, given the promises made by the No side in 2014 regarding EU membership, the change in circumstance is the justification for another poll. People may not want a referendum (I'm not overly keen on one despite being a firm supporter of independence) but the debate is far from settled on current polling.

If yes was polling +60% with a majority of SNP MP's in Scottish seats in WM and a Pro Indy Majority in the more proportionate Holyrood then we should save the expense of a Referendum and simply declare independence.

Conversely, if No was polling at 60%+ we should just bend over, lube up and take the hard brexit love.

[Loondave1]

Am I right in thinking a small majority like the Brexit clusterfuck might not be enough and the Govt could set the bar at an unarguable 60% to break the status quo and safe Brexit style guerrilla warfare post referendum. I've no idea if this is true or if its a simple 2014 re-run.